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newdigital, 2015.03.12 08:59
Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
Why Is This Event Important:
The Fed may stay on course to normalize monetary policy in mid-2015 as
the central bank anticipates lower energy prices to boost private-sector
consumption – one of the leading drivers of growth – and Chair Janet
Yellen may adopt a more hawkish tone at the March 18 meeting as the
board remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation.
Nevertheless, subdued wages along with the slowdown in private-sector
credit may drag on retail spending, and another unexpected contraction
may further delay the Fed’s normalization cycle as the ongoing weakness
in household earnings undermines the central bank’s scope to achieve the
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 0.3% or Greater
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.03.12
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 65 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.03.12
NZDUSD M5: 45 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
newdigital, 2015.03.13 11:21
Trading News Events: Canada Employment Change (based on dailyfx article)
A 5.0K contraction in Canada Employment paired with an uptick in the
jobless may drag on the loonie and produce fresh 2015-highs in USD/CAD
as it fuels speculation for a further reduction in the Bank of Canada’s
(BoC) benchmark interest rate.
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz endorses a wait-and-see
approach, a dismal labor report may encourage the central bank to adopt a
more dovish tone at the April 15 policy meeting in order to encourage a
Nevertheless, lower input costs accompanied by the pickup in private
sector activity may encourage Canadian firms to boost their labor force,
and a positive development may keep the USD/CAD range intact as the BoC
looks to retain its current policy over the near-term.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Sheds 5.0K Jobs or Greater
How it was traded:
USDCAD, M5, 2015.03.13
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
USDCAD M5: 41 pips price movement by CAD - Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2015.03.16 11:53
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CHF in our case)
[CHF - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Swiss retail sales declined in January after recovering in the prior
month, provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office showed
Excluding fuel, retail sales dropped 0.3 percent from last year, reversing a 1.9 percent rise in December.
of food, drinks and tobacco registered an annual increase of 1.4
percent, while non-food sector sales declined 1.4 percent.
sales fell by real 2.1 percent month-on-month in January, reversing the
1 percent rise in the prior month. This was the first fall in four
USDCHF, M5, 2015.03.16
newdigital, 2015.03.17 06:30
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
RBA considered cutting interest rates, decided to wait for more data
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s
minutes from its policy meeting earlier this month showed us that
members considered loosening monetary further this month, but it was
decided that more data was needed and it would take some time for the
economy to respond to an earlier cut in the OCR. It’s also clear that
the RBA is nervously watching the housing market; it is acutely aware
that softer monetary policy is helping to fuel the red-hot residential housing market in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.
The key lines from the minutes are:
On interest rates
On the housing market
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.03.17
AUDUSD M5: 24 pips price movement by AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2015.03.18 08:05
Trading the News: GBP Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another 30.0K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims paired with a hawkish Bank
of England (BoE) Minutes may spark a near-term rebound in GBP/USD should
the fundamental developments boost interest rate expectations.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
At the same time, Average Weekly Earnings are projected to increase an
annualized 2.2% after climbing 2.1% in January, and a marked expansion
in household earnings may encourage BoE Governor Mark Carney to
normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the central bank
anticipates a more sustainable recovery in the U.K economy.However, the slowdown in building activity along with the pullback in
business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal labor report may push
Governor Carney to further delay the normalization cycle in an effort to
encourage a stronger recovery.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Claims Slip 30.0K or More Accompanied by Stronger Wages
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.03.18
GBPUSD M5: 93 pips price movement by GBP - Jobless Claims Change news event
newdigital, 2015.03.18 16:49
EURUSD Pre-FOMC Pivot Values - Breakouts Occur Above R4, and Below S4 Pivots (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened Wednesdays trading range
bound, trading between pivot support and resistance. Current range bound
conditions are not surprising as many traders are waiting on today’s
FOMC even prior to taking positions on markets. Currently price has
traded off pivot resistance at 1.0624, but has yet to test range support
found at 1.0569. These values complete the current range valued at 55
During the FOMC event, any surprises may cause the
EURUSD to breakout. Traders should watch the S4 pivot at 1.0541. This
would signal a potential return to USD strength and a resumption of the pair’s current long term trend. Conversely if price breaks above the R4 pivot at 1.0651, it would suggest price is beginning a larger counter trend move, creating a new higher high.
newdigital, 2015.03.18 19:10
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future
“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor
market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a
lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests
that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.
Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have
boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is
advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and
export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the
Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy
prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with
appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a
moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward
levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The
Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is
anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but
the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over
the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory
effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The
Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.
In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee
will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of
maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take
into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an
increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely
at the April FOMC meeting. The Committee anticipates that it will be
appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it
has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably
confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over
the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate
that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in
the target range.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by
keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation,
it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently
anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near
mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time,
warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run.”
USDCHF, M5, 2015.03.18
USDCHF M5: 60 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
newdigital, 2013.12.25 19:20
For MA Channel - look at those links :
newdigital, 2015.03.20 14:35
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Canadian retail sales dropped at a steeper-than-anticipated pace in January, reaching the lowest level in 10
months, on a decline in receipts from gasonline stations.
Retail sales decreased 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted 41.36 billion Canadian dollars ($32.50 billion) in January,
Statistics Canada said Friday, whereas market expectations were for a 0.8% decline, according to economists at Royal
Bank of Canada.
USDCAD, M5, 2015.03.20
USDCAD M5: 48 pips price movement by CAD - Retail Sales news event
newdigital, 2014.01.06 18:38
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