Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.01.09 15:04
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.09
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 46 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2015.01.15 08:18
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Australia Jobless Rate Slips To 6.1% In December
The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted
6.1 percent in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
That beat expectations for 6.3 percent, and it was down from the revised 6.2 percent in November.
The Australian economy
added 37,400 jobs to 11,679,400 in December - well above forecasts for
5,000 following the gain of 42,700 jobs in the previous month.
increase in employment was driven by increased full-time employment for
both females (up 23,300) and males (up 18,200). The increase in
full-time employment was marginally offset by a fall in part-time
employment, down 4,100.
The participation rate was 64.8 percent, topping expectations for 64.7 percent - which would have been unchanged.
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.01.15
AUDUSD M5: 80 pips price movement by AUD - Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2015.01.16 12:03
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
A marked slowdown in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may trigger a
short-term squeeze in EUR/USD should the development dampen the Federal
Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner
rather than later.
Despite expectations for a rate hike in mid-2015, the Fed may sound
increasingly cautious and preserve its highly accommodative policy
stance beyond schedule as the central bank struggles to achieve its
mandate for price stability.Nevertheless, improved business confidence paired with the pickup in
economic activity may limit the downside risk for price growth, and the
stickiness in core inflation may heighten the appeal of the greenback as
a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness
to normalize monetary in 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Slips to Annualized 0.7% or Lower
EURUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event:
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to an annualized rate of 1.3%
from 1.7% in October on the back of falling energy prices, with the
core rate of inflation narrowing to 1.7% from 1.8% during the same
period. Indeed, subdued price pressures raise the risk of seeing the Fed
further delay its first rate hike, but it seems as though the central
bank will normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the committee anticipate
the drop in oil prices to have an positive impact on the real economy.
Despite the initial tick higher in EUR/USD, the dollar remained
resilient against its European counterpart as the pair slipped below the
1.2400 handle during the North American trade to end the day at 1.2343.
USDJPY, M5, 2015.01.16
USDJPY M5: 44 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.01.30 08:15
It was good entry today for 3 Stoch MaFibo, EURUSD M1 (about this system - see first page of the thread): price crossed SMA with 3 stoch indicators as a confirmation, and it was first profit level. By the way, first profit level is just 10 or 12 pips in profit only.
Gold is Reaching at 1270
newdigital, 2013.07.01 21:04
How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?
well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.
bullish (Bull market) :
bearish (Bear market) :
ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :
flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :
correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :
newdigital, 2015.01.20 08:14
Trading Video: Monetary Policy Speculation Heats EURUSD Early this Week (based on dailyfx article)
Though the ECB rate decision
is still days away and the Fed meeting is more than a week out, policy
speculation is generating heavy seas in the FX market. Between the
steady rise in capital market activity levels and an increase in the
frequency of outlier events these past months, investors across asset
classes are growing more sensitive to their exposure should sentiment
suffer a more systemic collapse. Moving forward, the Euro, Dollar, risk
theme and Chinese GDP are items to keep a close eye on. We discuss these
tides' influence on the market in today's Trading Video.
newdigital, 2015.01.20 11:20
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Tends to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending.
China Dec Retail Sales Growth Quickens Unexpectedly
Chinese retail sales growth quickened unexpectedly in December, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.
Retail sales rose 11.9 percent year-over-year in December following the
11.7 percent rise in November. Economists had expected sales to increase
at the stable rate of 11.7 percent.
On a month-over-month basis, retail sales grew 1.01 percent in December after the 0.90 percent climb in November.
In the January to December period, sales advanced 12 percent over the corresponding period of the previous year.
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.01.20
AUDUSD M5: 49 pips price movement by CNY - GDP and CNY - Retail Sales news events
EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.20
EURUSD M5: 9 pips price movement by CNY - GDP and CNY - Retail Sales news events
newdigital, 2015.01.21 06:51
Q & A About CHF (based on dailyforex article)
Q: What actually happened last Thursday?
A: The SNB (Swiss National Bank) made an announcement
that caused the CHF (Swiss Franc) to suddenly soar in value. The extent
and speed of the price rise had never happened before to a major global
currency, although there were similar incidents involving the CHF in
2011 and the GBP (British Pound) in 1992. The size and speed of the
change meant that most banks effectively stopped buying or selling the
CHF for several minutes, which had all kinds of bad effects (more on
Q. What was it exactly that the SNB announced?
A: The SNB announced that they were no longer going to support a cap
of the value in the CHF against the Euro. For more than 3 years, they
would intervene to make sure the CHF was worth no more than 1.2 Euros.
It is relatively easy for a central bank to keep their own currency
weak, but it was getting harder for them to do it, as the price kept
testing 1.20 and the Euro has been weakening dramatically over several
months. The SNB announcement took the market by surprise, as although
there was a logical risk this could happen, as recently as a few days
ago the SNB publicly declared that they had no intention of abandoning
the policy, which now can be seen to be a clear lie. By the way, the SNB
also announced a negative interest rate of 0.75%, meaning depositors
have to pay for the privilege of holding deposits in CHF. This would
usually tend to weaken a currency, at least in the short term.
Q: Why did the SNB Abandon the Cap?
A: There are different interpretations of the SNB’s action
so all explanations are controversial. They said that they no longer
feel the CHF is as overvalued as it was, so maybe they did not feel that
they had to hold the market back so much. However they have also said
that they did not expect the CHF to rise by 15% right away. A deeper
explanation would be that with the recent strong fall in the value of
the Euro, which is by far the currency most strongly linked by trade to
the CHF, it was becoming increasingly difficult and expensive for the
SNB to keep the CHF as weak as the Euro, so they acted to abandon a
position that was becoming untenable. Many have speculated that the SNB
were expecting the ECB (European Central Bank) to announce a program of
Quantitative Easing (QE) later this week, which might well push the
value of the Euro down even further, and at a rapid rate. If the cap had
still been in effect, they would probably have had to have spent a lot
of their reserves buying Euros with CHF.
Q: What will it mean for the price of the CHF going forward?
A: It is hard to say. Usually when the value of a currency moves
strongly up or down quite quickly by this kind of amount, it continues
to move in the same direction for a few more weeks or months at least.
However, there is some feeling that the move has gone far enough, and
that the SNB might act to cap the CHF again at the latest market price,
so it may not continue to increase. In any case, it is quite likely that
in the short-term, the CHF will swing up and down with high volatility.
Q: What will it mean for the prices of other currencies?
A: The move on Thursday seemed to cause some volatility in other
currencies, but that has gone at the time of writing, with nothing but
the CHF moving by very much. It could be argued that now that cash can
flow into the CHF, it might weaken the rise of the USD a little.
Q: Why did Forex traders and brokers lose so much money?
A: Usually, currencies fluctuate in value by very small amounts, far
less than stocks, for example. The Forex market is also usually
extremely liquid. This means that traders can place tight stop losses
and trade with high margin, in the knowledge that if their stop loss is
hit, they will usually not have to pay any slippage. Unfortunately in
this kind of case, the price blew right past almost every stop loss
without stopping, so traders and brokers could not execute any trade
exits until the price of all CHF pairs had moved by far more than 1,000
pips. This meant that instead of exiting at stop losses such as 50 pips
of loss, emergency exits had to be made at more than 1,000 pips or more.
With leverage, most traders in any kind of short CHF trade would have
had their entire deposits wiped out. In fact, many traders suffered
losses beyond that, and are now facing negative account balances, which
brokers may or may not be able or willing to chase. As for brokers
losing money, there are two reasons for this: some brokers hedge their
clients’ trades in the real market, where they also experienced the same
problems even more strongly than their own clients did, meaning they
could not pass on their clients’ losses. The second reason is that
anyone who was in a long CHF trade with a broker, would have made a lot
of money, and the balance of these trades may not have been covered by
the losses of the losers, as the losers would have mostly negative
newdigital, 2015.01.21 18:45
if actual < forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those
steering the country's monetary policy.
"Comparing September to November 2014 with June to August 2014, the
number of people in employment increased by 37,000 (to reach 30.80
million), the number of unemployed people fell by 58,000 (to reach 1.91
million) and the number of people not in the labour force (economically
inactive) aged from 16 to 64 increased by 66,000 (to reach 9.09
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.01.21
GBPUSD M5: 74 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event
newdigital, 2015.01.22 11:05
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
EUR/USD may face fresh monthly lows over the next 24-hours of trade as
the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce more
non-standard measures to further mitigate the risk for deflation.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite headlines for a EUR 50B/month asset-purchase program, the
details surrounding the new initiative may play a greater role in
driving EUR/USD especially as the Governing Council struggles to achieve
its one and only mandate for price stability.
However, the ECB may provide limited details and make an attempt to buy
more time as President Mario Draghi struggles to produce a unanimous
vote within the Governing Council, and we may see a more meaningful
rebound in EUR/USD should the central bank disappoint.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Unveils Open-Ended QE Program
EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.22
EURUSD M5: 62 pips price movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event
newdigital, 2015.01.23 04:21
Video: ECB Move Drives EURUSD to 11-Year Low, EURJPY On the Edge (based on dailyfx article)
The monetary policy ranks provided the markets another large injection
with the news that the ECB was following its largest counterparts down
the path of QE. The response for the Euro was decisive as EURUSD marked
its worst daily tumble in over three years on the way to the lowest
exchange rate since 2003. This pair will be particularly important to
monitor moving forward as we gauge the net influence of stimulus as well
as its relative effectiveness. With EURUSD, we now pair the most
accommodative central bank (ECB) pitted against the most hawkish (Fed).
Will the European authority be effective - even through the upcoming
Greek election? Will the FOMC maintain its drive towards a mid-2015 hike
next week? Meanwhile, the net impact of global stimulus on speculator
interest may be better reflected in a pair like EURJPY. With new
stimulus upgrade and a high-level sensitivity to risk trends, a 135
break can signal a broader tide change. We talk big themes, upcoming
event risk and well-placed currency pairs in today's Trade Video.
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