Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.03.24 13:40
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
Consumer Price Index Summary"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in shelter, energy, and food indexes all contributing. The energy index rose after a long series of declines, increasing 1.0 percent as the gasoline index turned up after falling in recent months. The food index, unchanged last month, also rose in February, though major grocery store food group indexes were mixed. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January. In addition to shelter, the indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, tobacco, and airline fares were among those that increased. The medical care index was unchanged, while the personal care index declined. The all items index was unchanged over the past 12 months, after showing a 0.1-percent decline for the 12 months ending January. Over the last 12 months the food index rose 3.0 percent and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent. These increases were offset by an 18.8-percent decline in the energy index."
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.03.24
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 52 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2015.03.25 14:09
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Unexpected Decrease In February
With orders for transportation equipment showing a notable pullback,
the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing that new
orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods unexpectedly decreased in
the month of February.
The report said durable goods orders fell
by 1.4 percent in February following a downwardly revised 2.0 percent
increase in January.
The drop in orders came as a surprise to
economists, who had expected orders to climb by 0.7 percent compared to
the 2.8 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
a 3.5 percent drop in transportation orders, durable goods orders still
fell by 0.4 percent in February after sliding by 0.7 percent in
January. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to rise by 0.3
USDCAD, M5, 2015.03.25
USDCAD M5: 37 pips price range movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
newdigital, 2015.03.31 08:11
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Building Permits] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining
government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new
building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching
ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction
workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various
construction services are purchased by the builder.
New Zealand February Building Permits Drop 6.3%
The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand tumbled a
seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent on month in February, Statistics New
Zealand said on Tuesday - standing at 1,758.
the number of building permits dipped 1.4 percent to 1,598. Permits
were issued for 160 apartments, including 28 retirement village units.
"The trend for new dwellings has more than doubled since March 2011," business
indicators manager Neil Kelly said. "But it is now showing signs of
decreasing after generally increasing for almost four years."
Permits had fallen 3.8 percent in January.
The total number of permits fell 0.6 percent on year in February.
regions that consented the most new dwellings were: Auckland - 528
(including 98 apartments); Canterbury - 517 (including 62 apartments);
and Waikato - 195.
The annual unadjusted value of consents for
February was: all buildings - up NZ$136 million (12 percent) to NZ$1.2
billion; residential work - up NZ$43 million (5.9 percent) to NZ$769
million; non-residential work - up NZ$93 million (25 percent) to NZ$469
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.03.31
NZDUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by NZD - Building Permits news event
newdigital, 2015.03.31 20:06
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD: remains heavy after breaking below 1.0800 as
the dollar headed higher overnight. We are happy to sell rallies to
1.0830-40 with stops above 1.0890.
USD/JPY: With the dollar strengthening across the
board, we would look to buy USDJPY on dips to 119.70 with a stop below
119.10. First resistance lies at 120.50 ahead of 121.30.
USDCAD: Square longs and buy below 1.2450, sticking to
the strategy of buying spot on dips rather than chasing it higher at
the wrong levels.
newdigital, 2015.04.01 12:36
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
UK Factory Growth At 8-month High
British manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in eight
months during March on stronger growth in production and new orders that
led to increased hiring, survey results from Markit Economics and the
Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed Wednesday.
Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.4 from 54 in
February, which was revised down from 54.1. The latest reading was in
line with economists' expectations.
A PMI score above 50
indicates growth in manufacturing and the British factory sector
expanded for the 24th consecutive month. The average reading for the
first three months of 2015, at 53.8, was the best growth outcome since
the second quarter of last year, the survey said.
industrial groups, consumer goods remained the strongest performing
sector. On the inflation front, selling prices and input costs both fell
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.04.01
GBPUSD M5: 85 pips price movement by GBP - Manufacturing PMI news event
newdigital, 2015.04.02 12:03
NFP Expectations for April (based on dailyfx article)
Below we can see a series of the 12 previous NFP totals graphically
displayed. While these numbers have been mixed, it is important to see
what effects they can have on the Forex market. So how can NFP affect
the market, and what are the expectations for Friday’s event?
The previous NFP event transpired last month on March 6th. To review,
expectations were set at 235k, but on release the figures surprised the
market. As seen in the graph above, the total amount of new jobs outside
of the agricultural sector came in at 293k. This beat of expectations
quickly drove traders to accumulate the US Dollar against the majority
of major currencies.
Below we can see the price action for the EURUSD during the March NFP
event using a 30 minute chart. Immediately after the announcement,
prices formed a new lower high for the week at 1.0988. This rise in
price only lasted seconds, as traders began to accumulate US Dollars on
the news. This caused prices to drop as much as 118 pips over the next
30 minutes. Not only did the EURUSD decline for the day, this event
caused the EURUSD to continue its trend and form a new monthly low in
the following trading week.
So what can we expect for Fridays trading?
The next NFP event is set for this Friday April, 3rd at 8:30 am New York
time. After reviewing last month’s release, it makes sense for traders
to be on their guard for unexpected volatility at this time. Currently
expectations are set for 248k. Traders should primarily focus on whether
or not NFP beats or misses expectations. By using last month as a
model, a beat above expectations could cause another major US Dollar
rally. Conversely, if prices miss expectations, it could signal a sell
off for the US Dollar against other Major G8 currencies.
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.04.03
GBPUSD M5: 112 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDJPY, M5, 2015.04.03
USDJPY M5: 119 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDCHF, M5, 2015.04.03
USDCHF M5: 107 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2015.04.04 08:01
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
newdigital, 2015.04.04 08:02
GBPUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
newdigital, 2015.04.09 06:38
New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor
Jerome Powell on Wednesday sketched out scenarios in which the
central bank could make an initial move earlier than many now
expect and then proceed in a slow and gradual manner on further
Yet, minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed there was a
wide divergence of views among policymakers, suggesting no
consensus on the timing of a move.
"The final arbiter will be the data, recent data argued for
delayed rate lift-off. A June 18 rate lift-off is now being
priced as quite a slim chance," said David de Garis, senior
economist at NAB.
Still, the chance of a hike at all this year is a stark
contrast to Europe and Japan where quantitative easing has years
to run. So dollar bulls took heart and bid up the dollar index
to a one-week high of 98.197, further away from Monday's
trough of 96.329. It last stood at 98.063.
The euro slipped to $1.0784 and was now more than 2
percent lower from this week's peak of $1.1036 set on Monday.
EURUSD, M5, 2015.04.09
EURUSD M5: 58 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2015.04.10 08:31
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - CPI]
= Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to respond by raising interest rates.
China CPI steadies, but sends mixed signals
“China kicked off economic reports for the month of March in decent
fashion, as CPI held steady at 1.4% beating consensus by a decimal and
PPI declines stopped accelerating for the first time in 8 months.”“Sequentially,
CPI fell 0.5% after rising 1.2% in Feb, but YTD CPI edged up to 1.2%
from 1.1%. Non-food component was unchanged at 0.9%.”“Analysts
are split on the implications of the latest inflation data - some see
the report as beginning of stabilization that would diminish the need
for PBoC to ease aggressively, while others do not see the release
sufficiently significant to alter the increasingly more regular easing
“Investors will monitor lending, M2 money supply, and Trade figures expected over the next few trading sessions.”
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.04.10
NZDUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by CNY - CPI news event
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