Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 105

Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2015.04.17 10:47

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Retain Slowest Pace of Growth Since 2009.
  • Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at Annualized 1.7% for Second Month.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may prop up the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD should the inflation report highlight sticky price growth in the world’s largest economy.

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite signs of a slower recovery, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to prepare U.S. households and business for higher borrowing-costs as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Highlight Sticky Price Growth

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Price Index Falls Short of Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, but the failure to push back below the 1.5000 handle may continue to foster range-bound prices over the near-term.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0487 (3/13 close) to 1.0515 (50% expansion)

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newdigital, 2015.04.17 15:45

2015-04-17 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

==========

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% For Second Straight Month In March

While the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing another modest increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of March, prices rose by slightly less than economists had anticipated.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the increase seen in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent.

The continued increase in prices was partly due to another notable increase in energy prices, which rose by 1.1 percent in March after climbing by 1.0 percent in February.

The gasoline index showed its biggest increase since February of 2013, surging up by 3.9 percent, while the fuel oil index also jumped by 5.9 percent.

However, the increase in energy prices was partly offset by a drop in food prices, as the food index fell by 0.2 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDJPY, M5, 2015.04.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

USDJPY M5: 46 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event

USDJPY, M5, 2015.04.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.04.18 06:54

EUR/USD: Momentum Shifts - BTMU (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD is still trading within the 1.05-1.10 range that has been mainly intact for most of March and April, and in that sense the best bias to have for the week ahead is probably neutral, notes Bank of Tokyo Mitsubish (BTMU).

"The momentum though appears to be shifting back toward a higher move with EUR/USD moving that way in the aftermath of the monetary policy press conference by President Draghi. While the ECB is a little more upbeat we do not think that will help the euro," BTMU adds.

"The IMF/G20 gathering in Washington may well result in some comments on the dollar – a G20 statement may refer to FX in a slightly different way and this is a risk to the upside for EUR/USD. Any sense that officials are getting more worried about the speed of dollar strength may prompt selling. However, this is unlikely to be sustained for long – the reality is that monetary policy divergence is set for some considerable time," BTMU argues.

"Greece will remain an issue and given the risk that this could go right to the wire, this is a clear downside risk for EUR/USD if there’s a sense next week of no progress being made toward a resolution and the release of additional funds for Greece," BTMU adds.


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Gold is Reaching at 1270

newdigital, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.06.28 15:55

Well ... some questions and answers :

=====

Q: what is the most profitable pair to trade the news?

A: GBPUSD

=====

Q: what is the most risky pair to trade the news?

A: GBPUSD

=====

Q: what is the most stable pair to trade the news (consistantly profitable pair for trading news events)?

A: USDCAD

=====

Q: what is less risky pair to trade the news?

A: USDCAD

=====

Thanx for your attention

That's all news


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newdigital, 2015.04.21 07:08

Forex technical analysis (VIDEO): EURUSD starts the week more bearish. Can it continue? (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD started the day at the highs and wandered lower in trading as the week got started. Will the bearishness continue this week? What levels will keep the bears in control.



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newdigital, 2015.04.22 07:15

2015-04-22 02:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

==========

"THE ALL GROUPS CPI

  • rose 0.2% in the March quarter 2015, compared with a rise of 0.2% in the December quarter 2014.
  • rose 1.3% through the year to the March quarter 2015, compared with a rise of 1.7% through the year to the December quarter 2014.
OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS
  • The most significant price rises this quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5%), tertiary education (+5.7%) and medical and hospital services (+2.2%).
  • The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter were for automotive fuel (-12.2%) and fruit (-8.0%)."

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2015.04.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

AUDUSD M5: 54 pips price movement by AUD - CPI news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2015.04.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.04.23 05:57

EUR/GBP: Breaks Down; EUR/USD: Excellent Selling Pattern - BofA Merrill (based on efxnews article)

EUR/GBP is resuming its larger downtrend, following the break of 0.7174/0.7166, notes Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"We look for a test and break of the Mar-11 low at 0.7014, ahead of the 0.6900/0.6800 region. Bounces should not exceed the Apr-19 high at 0.7245," BofA projects.


Turning to EUR/USD, BofA notes that while the 1.0500-1.1000 range is still intact, its correction is turning increasingly in a 'Triangular' pattern.

A Triangular Correction, according to BofA, is a range defined by two contracting trendlines.

"This is one of our favorite patterns and should provide an excellent opportunity to go short for a move toward 1.0000 once the pattern completes," BofA argues.

"For now, stay patient. Gains should not exceed the 55d at 1.0967, while a break of 1.1053 points to a larger correction than anticipated," BofA advises.



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newdigital, 2015.04.24 05:52

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Goldman Sachs (based on fxnews article)

Goldman Sachs updates its outlook on EUR/USD and USD/JPY noticing that the latest messages form the ECB and BoJ seem to be 'lost in translation'. The following are the key points in GS' note along with its latest forecasts for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

1- "When central banks are implementing QE – as the ECB and Bank of Japan clearly are – they deliver two basic messages. First, they comment on whether the current pace of asset purchases is still appropriate and, when it isn’t, they provide more accommodation, as the BoJ did in October. Second, because QE is controversial, they sing the praises of asset purchases, pointing to rising inflation expectations and an improving growth picture," GS argues.

2- "We think this is what happened towards the end of the ECB press conference on Apr. 15, when President Draghi made favorable comments on the inflation and growth picture. The market heard exit, but in our view this is a clear case of “lost in translation." GS adds.

3- "After all, President Draghi earlier in the press conference argued forcefully that focus on early exit is premature and that having this debate now is like “quitting a marathon after 1k.” Our European economists continue to expect “full implementation” of ECB QE, meaning an unchanged pace of asset purchases through at least Sep. 2016. This is key to our view that a cyclical recovery in the Euro zone is not a force for EUR/USD higher," GS clarifies.


4- "There was more “lost in translation” in Governor Kuroda’s speech on Apr. 19. The market picked up headlines that “the underlying trend of inflation has improved markedly,” but the more important message in the speech, in our opinion, is that low inflation momentum is threatening to pull inflation expectations lower (Exhibit 4), which will then set the stage for additional monetary easing," GS notes.

5 "Our Japan Chief Economist forecasts additional stimulus for July by way of duration extension of JGB purchases (akin to "Operation Twist" in the US). Given how small speculative long $/JPY positioning now is, we think there is room for the market to catch up with real story in Japan, which is that another round of monetary easing is coming," GS adds. 

GS targets EUR/USD at 1.00 in 6-months and USD/JPY at 125 over the same end of period.


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newdigital, 2015.04.24 12:32

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)

A 0.6% rebound in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a bearish retraction in EUR/USD as it raises the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage bets for a mid-2015 Fed rate hike, but the recent slew of weaker-than-expected data prints may encourage the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle in an effort to combat the ongoing slack in the real economy.

However, fading discounts along with the ongoing weakness in household spending may drag on orders for durable goods, and a dismal print may dampen the appeal of the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain its current policy beyond mid-2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Orders Rebound 0.6% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Demand for Durable Goods Falter
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily Chart



  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish, but the triangle/wedge formation may .
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0487 (3/13 close) to 1.0515 (50% expansion)

Orders for U.S. Durable Goods unexpectedly shrank 1.4% in February following a revised 1.9% expansion the month prior. The contraction was largely drive by a drop in transportation, with demand for non-defense aircrafts slipping 8.9% from the previous month. The slowdown in private-sector consumption may become a growing concern for the Fed as lower energy costs fail to boost household spending, and the central bank may look to further delay its normalization cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. Despite the weaker-than-expected prints, the initial market reaction was rather limited as EUR/USD struggled to hold above the 1.1000 handle during the North American trade to end the day at 1.0973.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2015.04.24

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

GBPUSD M5: 35 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2015.04.24, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo