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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, December: ranging market condition within the bearish area of the chart - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 10:32

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 180K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may fuel the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback and trigger a pullback in EUR/USD should the report put increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to further normalize monetary policy."
  • "With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely anticipated to lift the benchmark interest rate at the December 14 meeting, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the central bank to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2017 especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may make further attempts to buy more time as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent voting-members may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into the year ahead as ‘the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.’"


Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Adds 180K Jobs or More

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. NFP Report Disappoints
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Two-hour H2 price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

  • If H2 price break 1.0689 resistance level to above on close bar so the price will be started to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
  • If H2 price breaks 1.0620 support on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-12-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

"The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

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EUR/USD M5: 33 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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S&P 500 M5: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 18:21

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD: 2016, December 04 - December 11 (based on the article)


EUR/USD maintained its range as we entered the last month of the year. The ECB meeting is left, right and center this week, but certainly not the only event, in a week that starts with the fallout from the Italian referendum.

  1. Italian Referendum: Sunday. Italians go to the polls to decide on far-reaching changes to the political system, moves that, if approved, are supposed to make the third-largest economy of the euro-zone more governable.
  2. Eurogroup meetings: Monday, with the wider Ecofin on Tuesday. Finance ministers of the 19-country euro area convene to discuss various matters.
  3. Services PMIs: Monday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German number at 8:55 and the final read for November for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
  4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
  5. Retail sales: Monday, 10:00.
  6. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. A rise of 0.6% is projected.
  7. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10. No significant change is expected now.
  8. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. 
  9. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
  10. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:30. Contrary to Germany, France has a chronic trade deficit.
  11. ECB decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45 and the press conference is at 13:30. The European Central Bank is not expected to change its monetary policy, leaving the main lending rate at 0%, the deposit rate at -0.40% and the QE program at 80 billion euros per month.
  12. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. A narrower surplus of 20.8 billion is forecast.
  13. French Industrial Production: Friday.

Sergey Golubev:

The weekly price is on bearish breakdown which was started in the beginning of october this year on the secondary ranging way: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing 1.0568 support level to below for the Fibo level at 1.0517 as a nearest daily/weekly bearish target.

The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo level at 1.1066 located in the beginning of the weekly bullish reversal to be started, and
  • Fibo level at 1.0517 located far below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the primary bearish condition to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is below the price which is indicating the primary bearish trend in the future for this pair with the good volatility. By the way, Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future price movement as the ranging bearish so we can expect the ranging market condition in the bearish area of the chart for example.

If W1 price breaks 1.0517 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If weekly price breaks 1.0850 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If W1 price breaks 1.1066 resistance level on close weekly bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1066 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0517 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.08501.0568
1.10661.0517

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: ranging breakdown

Key Support level at 1.0517 was not broken: the price was bounced from this level to above to start ranging within 1.0517/1.1204/1.1299 levels:

 

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12/09/2016 Friday EURUSD your forecast closing candles on D1

Itum, 2016.12.08 00:29

  • EURUSD on D1 closes a bearish candle
  • EURUSD on D1 closes a bullish candle

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Mario Draghi

Thomas Lawson, 2016.12.09 03:49

Mario Draghi hammered the Euro today. FOMC meeting next week. Eur/Usd bearish because of fundamentals. 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.13 06:29

5 Things to Watch For in Next Week's Fed Meeting (based on the article)

  1. The Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points, only the second increase in 10 years. This will be driven by additional progress toward its dual objectives -- full employment and inflation converging to 2 percent --  along with a desire to validate high market expectations about rates, and to respond to diminished headwinds from abroad (particularly from Europe, despite the results of last week’s Italian referendum).
  2. In terms of these dual objectives, the Fed’s policy deliberations will be influenced by the decline of the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent along with the sluggish participation rate, despite continued solid monthly job creation. When it comes to inflation, the inclination to fully embrace the rise in market expectations will be tempered by the recent decline in the growth rate of average hourly earnings.
  3. On forward guidance, the Fed will keep open the possibility of multiple hikes in 2017. This is due not only to its anticipation of a solid economic baseline for next year but also the new upside for growth and inflation associated with the recent policy announcements by President-elect Donald Trump. An important consideration here is the degree to which a more active fiscal policy, especially if led by productive infrastructure spending, would allow faster normalization of monetary policy.
  4. For the first time in a long while, the FOMC’s “blue dots” -- the expectations of individual members of the Fed board for the future path of rates -- will not migrate down significantly. Instead, they will remain broadly unchanged, while market expectations will continue to converge upward over time.
  5. Nonetheless, the Fed’s signals of a somewhat tighter monetary policy will be nuanced, and with good reason. U.S. central bankers will wish to wait for the details of the Trump administration’s economic policies before moving toward significant alterations of a forward guidance that remains heavily “data dependent.”


Sergey Golubev:

Key Support level at 1.0517 was not broken: the price was bounced from this level to above to start ranging within 1.0517/1.1204/1.1299 levels:

 

Well ... thisd is still same the situation: key 1.0517 level is not going to be broken, and if this level is broken to below on close weekly bar so the primary bearish trend to be continuing. 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.14 09:19

USD Into FOMC: More Gains As Market Reprices More Fed Hikes - Goldman Sachs (based on the article)


  • "We expect the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by 25bp."
  • "We expect the USD to continue to move higher and we forecast the TWI USD to appreciate about 7% versus G10 currencies over the next 12 months."
  • "We expect further USD strength as the market re-prices more tightening from the Fed."


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.15 01:22

Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rate, Dot Plot Sees Three More In 2017 (based on the article)


  • "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its key interest rate for only the second time in a decade, by a quarter-point to 0.5%-0.75%."
  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year."
  • "Markets are expected to take today's rate hike in stride, but the outlook on interest rates for 2017 remains somewhat murky. The Fed's 'dot plots' now predict three rate hikes in 2017, one more than previously estimated."


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