Forecast and levels for NZD - page 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.11 19:02

Quick Technical Overview - NZD/USD Levels Ahead of FOMC Minutes (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish breakdown located below Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 0.7055 support to below for the breakdown to be continuing.


  • "In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds".



  • "One-day implied volatility is relatively ‘normal’ across the dollar-spectrum. So far, it’s been a rather ‘ho-hum’ type of day with limited price movement, and while there is likely to be a spat of volatility following the release of the minutes, it could remain a fairly uneventful day once the dust settles through the NY close. At 18:00 GMT time, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released, and again, while there aren’t big expectations for major price swings it’s always prudent to be prepared in the event of a surprise".

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.12 19:53

NZD/USD - intra-day bear market rally (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on secondary rally by 0.7134 resistance level to be crossing to above for the bear  market rally to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern, hinting that a reversal higher against its US counterpart may be in the works. Interestingly, the currency seems to be finding strength despite continued political uncertainty after an inconclusive general election."
  • "Near-term resistance is in the 0.7132-40 area (August 31 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close above that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7196. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7105 paves the way for another challenge of resistance-turned-support at 0.7054."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.25 07:54

NZD/USD - strong intra-day bearish; 0.6885 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area: the price is testing 0.6885 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "NZD/USD has fallen hard in the past five trading days down nearly 400 pips. A strong move of this nature suggests NZD/USD may be in an impulsive wave lower."
  • "The move lower appears incomplete and the next cluster of wave relationships shows up near .65-.66. The Elliott Wave model we are following suggests we are in a wave (iii) lower. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest of the Elliott Wave sequence. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise to see an 800 pip sell off in the past month when it is delivered through a third wave."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:43

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)


NZD/USD - "NZD/USD has dropped sharply since the announcement of a new government whose policies include a shake-up of the Reserve Bank Act which would give the central bank a more prominent in controlling the foreign exchange rate, and a plan to increase the minimum wage. Recent New Zealand trade data disappointed with imports rising more than expected in September while exports missed market expectations. A rebound for NZD/USD is likely to find resistance at the 0.6993 Fibonacci retracement level ahead of the cluster of previous lows around 0.7050. On the downside the May 2016 low of 0.6675 comes into play, followed by a Fibonacci extension low of 0.6616."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.03 14:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-11-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is -33K
  • forecast data is 312K
  • actual data 261K n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.15 15:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in October as an increase in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods offset a decline in demand for building materials, suggesting consumer spending remained fairly strong early in the fourth quarter."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales increased 0.2 percent last month. Data for September was revised to show sales jumping 1.9 percent rather than the previously reported 1.6 percent advance."
  • "Retail sales increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: rrange price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.20 08:35

NZD/USD - daily strong bearish; 0.6780 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: price is on testing the support level at 0.6780 together with descending triangle pattern to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar has broken support that has been holding it up since mid-May, hinting that deeper losses against the currency’s US namesake area ahead. The drop came amid broad-based risk aversion after US Special Counsel Robert Mueller subpoenaed the Trump campaign. From here, a daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 0.6745 sees the next downside barrier marked by the 50% level at 0.6672. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.6835 – now recast as resistance – opens the door for a retest of the 14.6% expansion at 0.6890."
  • "Technical and risk/reward parameters appeared acceptable to attempt a short position and NZD/USD was sold at 0.6804, initially targeting 0.6745. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.6837. Profit on half of the trade will be booked at the stop moved to breakeven if (and when) the first objective is met."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system from this post (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

About BrainTrending system in general:

  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.29 08:33

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Financial Stability Report and range price movement 

2017-11-28 20:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report]

[NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report] = Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future.

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From scoop.co.nz article :

  • "The New Zealand dollar was little changed, holding above 69 US cents for the second day, ahead of the Reserve Bank's financial stability report, which may signal an end to measures aimed at cooling the property market."
  • "The Reserve Bank is expected to reiterate that the financial system is in good shape but is likely to repeat that housing remains a risk and that it is keeping an eye on commodity prices, especially dairy. But it may also include some commentary on the effectiveness of macroprudential tools such as loan-to-value ratio restrictions, given there are signs that heat is coming out of the property market and it has previously flagged that market as a risk to financial stability."
  • "The report is released at 9am, with a media briefing at 11am and an appearance by Reserve Bank officials before the finance and expenditure select committee. Also out this morning is an announcement from the government on changes to the brief for the Overseas Investment Office, which may include a register of foreign buyers and restrictions on their activities."

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by RBNZ Financial Stability Report news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.04 10:01

NZD/USD - weekly bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price is testing support level at 0.6779 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "The dominant New Zealand Dollar trend continues to favor the downside against its US counterpart despite an apparent deceleration in the pace of decline. The steeper down move from the late September swing high seems to have ended but a shallower series of lower highs and lows remains in play."
  • "From here, a daily close below the November 17 low at 0.6781 exposes range floor support at 0.6752, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6697. Alternatively, a push above 0.6935 (23.6% Fib retracement, channel top) exposes the 0.7030-54 area (38.2% retracement, October 9 low, former trend line support)."
  • "Risk/reward considerations argue against taking a short trade at current levels. With that in mind, a short entry order has been established to sell NZD/USD at 0.6895. If triggered, the trade will initially target 0.6793 and carry a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.6946."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.12 10:29

NZD/USD - daily ranging bearish to the ranging bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located near and below Ichimoku cloud for resistance level at 0.6930 to be breaking to above for the bullish reversal to be started.


  • "Critical support remains at 0.6781, November 17 low. A daily close below that targets a channel bottom now at 0.6736, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6697. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.6935 exposes the 0.7030 (38.2% retracement, former trend line support)."
  • "he entry order to sell NZD/USD at 0.6895 established last week has been triggered. The position initially targets 0.6793, with a stop-loss to be activated on a daily close above 0.6946. Profit on half of open exposure will be booked and stop moved to breakeven when (and if) the first objective is met."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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