Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 10

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.10 08:36

Dollar Index - weekly ranging bearish; 88.25 support is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bearish ranging below Ichimoku cloud and within the following s/r levels:

  • 94.20 resistance level located in the beginning of the medium-term bullish reversal to be started, and
  • 88.25 support level located in the beginning of the berish trend to be resumed.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below, thus - most likely scenario for the next month price movement is the following: the primary bearish trend will be continuing with the secondary ranging way.

Dollar Index

  • "The US Dollar Index (DXY) appeared to be on a one-way course as it continued to aggressively fall through most of 2017 and the start of 2018. However, on January 25, after tapping 88.43, we have seen a bounce that has aligned with the global risk-off move."
  • "Now, the DXY is looking to rise for the second straight week,and a few key technical tests await the US Dollar Index at 91, the 38.2% retracement level of the October-January range followed by 92.58, the 61.8% retracement of the same date range."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5


 
ofwono:


In the above image, I have cycled the indicator that I am interested in with yellow color and in the image below is the Asctrend that I am not interested in

The indicator which you have circled, I think it one of the stochastic arrow indicator, you can search for it within the forum

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.22 21:48

Dollar Index - strong weekly bearish trend; 88.15 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing 88.15 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing

Dollar Index

  • "Institutions are known as smart money, but they often get caught crowded into popular trades that are quick to reverse. One of those is the play of selling the US Dollar. Per Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the short US Dollar trade is the second most crowded trade second to bullish US equities and the most crowded FX trade."
  • "A recent FX forum in Miami, TradeTech FX, had bank strategists calling for extensive US Dollar weakness with calls of 1.35-1.43 EUR/USD by year end, which would likely see DXY sub-80 to 78.78, which is the 76.4% retracement of the 2008-20017 range in DXY."
  • "The short-term outlook has seen focus turned to the concerns of the US fiscal expansion late into an economic cycle and the view that other major central banks normalization anticipation will drive up their currencies, and keep global capital flows as limiting USD upside."
  • "On February 16, the Dollar Index posted a Bullish Key Day. The pattern requisite is a price low that breaches the prior day’s low followed by a close above the prior day’s high. What’s more is that the Bullish key day aligned with a double-bottom against 88.45, the January low."
  • "The bounce will look to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December-February range at 90.53 and the February 9 high at 90.56. As mentioned earlier, a break and close of February-high resistance could cause an aggressive unwind of the crowded short dollar position. The unwind could give surprising fuel to the upside up to the 50% retracement of the same price range at 91.23 followed by the 2018 opening range high that was traded at intraday on January 9 at 92.27."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.27 18:19

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2018-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.8%
  • forecast data is -2.4%
  • actual data is -3.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article :

  • "After reporting a bigger than expected jump in orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing durable goods orders pulled back by more than expected in January."
  • "The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by 3.7 percent in January after surging up by a revised 2.6 percent in December."
  • Andrew Hunter, U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "Looking ahead, although some measures of capex intentions remain at a high level, the latest business surveys point to a further slowdown in underlying durable goods orders. That said, with the strong global backdrop set to continue benefiting manufacturers and the recent tax cuts likely to provide some further support, we still expect business investment to expand at a healthy pace over 2018 as a whole."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.

Rules to trade manually

How to install


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.04 08:16

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index

Dollar Index - "It’s been a chaotic and somewhat climactic week for the US Dollar. The Greenback started the week by extending last week’s jump; and that strength largely remained until we got to Thursday. The big driver behind the Dollar appeared to be the testimony from incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday; as he talked down the prospect of the ‘Fed put’ while also implying that we may get as many as four rate hikes out of the United States this year. Stocks did not like this implication, and US equities traded lower thereafter; but it was the perk in the Dollar that really seemed to get attention across FX markets as there appeared to be a very legitimate chance of the Greenback breaking its year-long slump that’s seen as much as 15% of its value erased."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.14 18:48

There was one high impacted news event: U.S. Core Retail Sales 

Previous value was 0.1% (reviced from the past one), and the actual value was 0.2% which is same or less as forecasting value but anyway - it is more than the previous one.
There were some other high impacted news events on this time so the price was moved to the USD side because.

Example with EUR/USD: the price was bounced from 200-SMA to below for the bearish area of the chart (this is intra-day M5 chart).

EURUSD

Example with the Dollar Index: the price on M5 chart broke 200-SMA to above for the reversal to the bullish market condition with 89.87 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.

Dollar Index

This is just the example about how the high impacted events can move the price on intra-day basus for example.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.17 11:48

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index

Dollar Index - "A week marked by seesaw price action ended with a spirited push higher for the US Dollar. The rally was especially notable in that it occurred without an obvious fundamental catalyst. The week’s top data point of interest was February’s CPI print. The headline inflation rate printed exactly in line with forecasts at 2.2 percent, which eased worries about Fed rate hike acceleration and sent the greenback lower. A weekly bottom started taking shape a mere five hours later however, from which it rallied into Friday’s close.  The US currency’s preemptive rally telegraphs the markets’ concern with such an outcome. Momentum will probably slow ahead of the announcement, with traders unwilling to commit until after it hits the wires. When that happens, fireworks are likely. The Fed’s primacy in shaping trends coupled with a tame docket in the days thereafter also means follow-through faces few obstacles. Indeed, short work was made of Rex Tillerson’s actual ouster from the Trump administration and H.R. McMaster’s rumored one last week."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.24 13:40

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index

Dollar Index - "US politics triggered brutal bloodletting across financial markets last week, handing the bellwether S&P 500 stock index its biggest loss in over two years. A staff reshuffle at the White House purged moderating voices on the foreign policy front shortly after the same fate befell the economics team, surrounding President Trump with a cadre of enablers encouraging his most bellicose tendencies. The exit of top economic advisor Gary Cohn in opposition to tariffs that Mr Trump levied on steel and aluminum imports paved the way for still more protectionism. This time, the President slapped China with tariffs of up to $60 billion as punishment for alleged intellectual property theft, which Beijing promptly promised to counter with duties of their own. Incoming economic data is unlikely to help the greenback remedy this conflict. A revision of fourth-quarter GDP data is expected to see thegrowth upgraded from 2.5 to 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is forecast hit 1.6 percent in February, the highest in 11 months. These outcomes will reinforce the FOMC’s cautious optimism, but that is probably the extent of their significance."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 16:41

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Brent Crude Oil and EUR/USD: ISM United States Manufacturing PMI

2018-04-02 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 60.8
  • forecast data is 60.1
  • actual data is 59.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 19th consecutive month, led by continued expansion in new orders, production activity, employment and inventories, with suppliers continuing to struggle delivering to demand,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Dollar Index

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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Brent Cude Oil

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

EURUSD

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:22

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index chart by Metatrader 5

Dollar Index - "The big items on the macro-economic calendar for next week both take place on Wednesday, with March inflation numbers released early in the US morning and meeting minutes from the Fed’s March rate hike being released later in the day. We have one additional high impact USD print on the calendar for next Friday, with the April release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Numbers. Next week also ushers in earning season out of the US as many US corporates release first quarter performance numbers."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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