Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 7

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.26 10:39

GOLD - intra-day ranging bullish; 1,332/1,326 for the intra-day bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price on H4 chart is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,365 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1,342 support level located in the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started.

If the price breaks 1,342 level to below so the next support levels are 1,332/1,326 for the intra-day bearish reversal


  • "The gold price trends have been sloppy since December 2016. That sloppy behavior is evidence of a three-wave move, a correction. Therefore, the current increase in gold prices may not last long."
  • "The break above $1357 eliminates the near term triangle possibility and indicates the rise since December 2016 is a large ‘B’ wave. ‘B’ waves tend to be sucker waves that are sloppy and overlapping and the trend for the past year fits that description. The Elliott Wave analysis calls for gold prices to remain below $1465."
  • "Our gold price forecast is for a bearish reversal to occur between now and $1465. Though that is a large region, we can use simple technical analysis to help us enter into the bearish reversal. For example, a break below $1306 would begin to carve a lower low in gold prices. A successful move below $1306 will allow us to analyze the charts for a bearish 5-3 wave sequence. The bearish 5-3 wave pattern would allow us to use the swing high as a risk level."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 12:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "Looking ahead to next week the central focus will shift on key U.S. event risk with the FOMC interest rate on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. This will be Janet Yellen’s final policy meeting as Chair before newly confirmed Jerome Powell takes the reins on February first. Market expectations are that the newly minted Federal Reserve Chairman will broadly carry on the central bank’s steady and measured pace of monetary tightening."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.02 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, XAU/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-02-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 160K
  • forecast data is 181K
  • actual data is 200K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDCAD

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

XAUUSD

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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Brent Crude Oil

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 
XAU/USD: GOLD ROSE TOO HIGH
07:08 06.02.2018

Recommendation:

SELL $1328

SL $1343

TP $1306 TP2 $1272 TP3 $1244

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.


On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.24 13:54

Gold - weekly ranging above the bearish reversal (based on the article)

XAUUSD

  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 65.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.93 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% lower than yesterday and 2.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.5% higher than yesterday and 14.8% lower from last week. "
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.04 08:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold (based on the article)

Gold/USD

XAU/USD - "Gold prices are lower for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by nearly 0.6% to trade at 1320 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the decline, price are poised to close the week well-off the lows after a sharp reversal off support on Thursday. he focus now shifts to key central bank rate decisions next week from the RBA, BoC, BoJ and ECB with the release of the February U.S. Non-Farm Payroll figures (NFP) highlighting the economic docket. For gold, the emphasis will remain on the wage growth numbers next Friday as the inflation outlook remains central focus for the Federal Reserve. As it stands, market participants are factoring three rate hikes this year, (starting with this month) and if the inflation picture improve expectations for higher rates may weigh on demand for gold which does not pay a dividend."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.17 12:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

Gold chart

XAU/USD - "Gold prices were originally up to a decent start last week, boosted by a US CPI report. There, February’s inflation was in-line with expectations. The downside was that real average hourly earnings dropped, from +0.7% m/m to +0.4% m/m. The US Dollar fell on that aspect and this increased demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, on Thursday things turned south. Absent a major catalyst, the greenback appreciated broadly against its major counterparts alongside local 2-year government bond yields. This naturally sapped the appeal of gold and caused it to close at its lowest point in more than two months. The move appeared to reflect pre-positioning for next week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement which brings us to what is in store for gold next week. This meeting is scheduled to occur on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. There, the markets are unanimously expecting benchmark lending rates to increase to a range of 1.50 – 1.75%. However, that itself is not what investors will be paying attention to. Back towards the end of February, Fed’s new Chair Jerome Powellhinted the possibility of a fourth rate hike by the end of the year."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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XAUUSD Elliottwave Analysis

Yue Wang, 2018.03.19 04:28

On daily chart, we still suspect spot Gold in a potential triangle consolidate mode.

Short term neutral bias within 1300/42 range.

Need to break either side to provide clearer direction.

Below 1300/1299.6, will expose 1277/1267 support zone.

Above 1342 may directly bullish for 1355/1372, 1396.

1



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.21 09:07

Gold - daily ranging for direction; 1,330/1,307 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging qwithin Icxhimnoku cloud waiting for the direction for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

Gold Ichimoku Daily Chart

  • "The markets are assuming a strong probability of getting a hike at the the Federal Reserve’s March rate meeting with odds currently reflecting a 94.4% chance for 25 basis points of tightening. But this has been long known as the FOMC has been fairly clear with their intentions to further normalize policy. The bigger question, however, is what’s on the bank’s slate for the rest of the year. A total of three hikes has long been the central expectation, but after Mr. Powell’s testimony in-front of Congress earlier this month, the idea of four hikes started to more prominently enter the equation; and as we sit 24 hours ahead of tomorrow’s expected rate hike, those odds for four hikes in 2018 are sitting at 38.3%."
  • "This is relevant for Gold prices as a longer-term trend has started to come into question after running into a big batch of resistance. The price of $1,357.50 marked last year’s high in Gold, and the year before that saw a high print of $1,375.15. We tested that zone just a few weeks into the New Year and then again a couple of weeks after that; but, to date, bulls have been unable to make much ground."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 
Sergey Golubev:

Sergey Golubev:

Sergey Golubev:

Sergey Golubev:

From all the 4 post, I realized that Gold is moody :-)

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