Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.02 09:21
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and GOLD (based on the article)
USD/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for for the bearish trend to be continuing or the bear market rally to be started
is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition: the price is ranging within 109.01 resistance level and 108.63 support level waiting for the direction for the primary bearish trend to be continuing or the bear market rally to be started. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.08 08:15
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Consumer Confidence and 17 pips price movement
2016-04-08 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Consumer Confidence]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households, excluding single-person homes.
USDJPY M5: 17 pips price movement by Japan Consumer Confidence news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.09 08:53
Naoyuki Shinohara, an ex-IMF deputy chief and formerly Japan's top currency diplomat (the articles' review)
Quick Technical Overview - Sell USD/JPY: bearish breakdown
USD/JPY: bearish breakdown. The price is located to be below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the primnary bearish market condition: the price is on breakdown with 107.67 support level as the tager for the bearish breakdown to be continuing if broken. Alternatively, if the price breaks 113.79 resistance level to above so the bear market rally will be started within the bearish condition with the good possibility to the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition if 117.51 resistance level will be broken to above.There are the following news events which will be affected on USD/JPY price movement for the week:
USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, 17.04 - 24.04: bearish ranging within key narrow s/r levels
Daily price is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the rpimary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart - the price is on ranging condition within the following narrow s/r levels:
Span line is below the price indicating the ranging condition to be continuing by direction, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the primary bearish, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price
movement as the secondary ranging condition.
If D1 price will break 107.66
support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.If D1 price will break 111.35
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started within the primary bearish market condition.If D1 price will break 114.87
resistance level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.20 08:30
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Trade Balance and 23 pips price movement
2016-04-19 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]
[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
USD/JPY M5: 23 pips price movement by Japan Trade Balance news event
Weekly Forecast: the most interesting pair you can make money with - USD/JPY
USD/JPY: possible breakout with bullish reversal. The pair is on breakout which was started on Friday - the price broke 2 key resistance levels on open daily bar testing 112.77 resistance level to above for the breakout to be continuing. There are 4
simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:
Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to above on open daily bar together with Absolute Strength indicator estimating the breakout to be continuingn in the near future.
There are the following news events which will be affected on USD/JPY price movement for the week:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.28 07:54
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Monetary Policy Statement and 289 pips price movement
2016-04-28 03:01 GMT | [JPY - Japan Interest Rate Decision]
USD/JPY sees a 200-pips fall:
"The yen jolted nearly 200-pips higher versus the American dollar in a knee-jerk reaction to the BOJ policy announcement,
as the central bank keeps monetary policy steady, maintains 80 trln Yen
base money target and 0.1% negative interest rate. USD/JPY plunged to
fresh one-week lows of 108.78 immediately after the BOJ decision, before
recovering some ground to now trade around 109.25, still down –2.03% on
the day.""The Japanese currency received a huge boosts as markets
were expecting more easing from the BOJ in wake of the recent
appreciation in the yen against the greenback and underlying subdued
price trends. However, markets were disappointed as BOJ decided to adopt
loan support programme only for banks in areas hit by southern Japan
USD/JPY M5: 289 pips price movement by Japan Monetary Policy Statement news event
USD/JPY Technical Analysis 2016, 08.05 - 15.05: daily bearish within narrow levels; weekly bearish breakdown; monthly correction; 106.27 is the key
The Short-Term situation. Daily price was on the bearish breakdown since end of April this tear: price broke key support levels to below on the way to go to downtrend which was started from Senkou Span line and stopped by 106.27 support level. For now, the price is on narrow ranging within the following s/r levels:
If D1 price will break 106.27
support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 105.54 nearest target to re-enter.If D1 price will break 108.19
resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
The Medium-Term situation. Weekly price is on the bearish breakdown since end of January
this year: price broke key support levels together with Ichimoku cloud to below with 106.27 support level to be tested for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.
The Long-Term situation. Monthly price is on secondary correction which was started in the beginning of February this year with 106.27 support level testing for the correction to be continuing.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.09 08:17
Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (based on the article)
"The Bank of Japan’s bond buying has nearly trebled the monetary base in
just over three years to more than 386 trillion yen ($3.6 trillion) as
of April, a central bank report showed Friday. Base money in dollar
terms is at its highest relative to the U.S. since 2006 at 96 percent,
despite Japan’s economy being about a quarter the size. Some traders
have dubbed the ratio a “Soros Chart,” after billionaire investor George
Soros correctly predicted in the 1990s that burgeoning supplies of
funds would weaken the yen."
"An expanding monetary base is a factor for yen weakness, making it hard
to imagine that the one-way strength that we’ve seen in the yen will
continue,” said Fumio Nakakubo, chief investment officer for Japan at
UBS Group AG’s wealth management unit. “There is an excess of yen in the
market -- like how juice gets diluted by adding too much water -- and
it will cause the yen’s value to drop further and further.”