Press review - page 597

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News: daily bearish reversal (based on the article)

• "While debates on the need to bring about regulations over the flourishing cryptocurrency market continue, Commodity Futures Trading Commissioner Brian Quintenz moots the idea, why not self-regulate? Delivering keynote address at the D.C. Blockchain Summit in Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission chief suggested that a cryptocurrency SRO could have an impact beyond the U.S. market."
• "Why has Bitcoin been having a hard time staying above $9,000? The world's largest digital currency approached $9,500 earlier today, but quickly gave up these gains, falling below the $9,000 mark several times, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). Bitcoin fell to as little as $8,860.87 today, representing a roughly 6.5% decline from the day's high of $9,474.86, additional BPI figures show."
• "There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, since there has been little guidance about resolutions to the impending regulatory actions by US agencies," said James Song, founder and CEO of blockchain startup ExsulCoin. Charles Thorngren, CEO of Noble Alternative Investments, also weighed in on how regulatory developments are affecting digital currency markets.

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

There was one high impacted news event: U.S. Core Retail Sales 

Previous value was 0.1% (reviced from the past one), and the actual value was 0.2% which is same or less as forecasting value but anyway - it is more than the previous one.
There were some other high impacted news events on this time so the price was moved to the USD side because.

Example with EUR/USD: the price was bounced from 200-SMA to below for the bearish area of the chart (this is intra-day M5 chart).

Example with the Dollar Index: the price on M5 chart broke 200-SMA to above for the reversal to the bullish market condition with 89.87 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.

This is just the example about how the high impacted events can move the price on intra-day basus for example.

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-03-14 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.8%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

• "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.6 percent in the December 2017 quarter, the second quarter in a row it rose 0.6 percent."
• "Higher activity in the service industries was offset by a fall in the primary industries. Goods-producing industries also rose."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Ichimoku - daily strong bullish trend to be resumed (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud within narrow support/resistance levels. The price is testing 1.3067 resistance to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Calm appears to be returning to FX markets that were shaken so dramatically in the opening days of February trading. For trend traders, lower volatility is often a favored backdrop for trading since volatility is often directionless noise, or can simply make it difficult to hold on to trades with compelling fundamental arguments for a trend continuation. When traders look at the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index, they will see that the 3-month expected volatility dropped to the lowest level since January. A two-month low may not sound like much, but January saw the lowest level in three-years. While high-volatility favors traders who simply are looking for aggressive price swings, low-volatility tends to be an environment where trends as highlighted by Ichimoku can extend."
• "Since the lagging line on Ichimoku when applied to the USD/CAD chart broke above the cloud alongside price, traders were encouraged to be looking for signs of a trend continuation higher. Three weeks after the lagging line breakout, USD/CAD is trading to the highest levels since June."
• "Per Ichimoku, the lagging line (current candle close regressed 26-periods) is a key signal that the Bullish momentum is back. However, in addition to lagging line above price, traders that utilize Ichimoku also look to the lagging line in relation to the cloud. A lagging line break above the cloud, which would signal the current price has cleared multiple forms of resistance and could continue in the direction of the trend higher. Adding RSI(5) to Ichimoku shows a rising floor that backs the broader trend. Add IG Client Sentiment to this picture and you can see that short positions have been on the rise since early February."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - weekly correction (based on the article)

• "Japan’s Nikkei 225 remains in correction territory, 10.2% below its Jan. 23 high of 24,129.34. China’s Shanghai Composite is 8.8% below its Jan. 29 high of 3,587.03. India’s Nifty 50 is down 8.7% from its Jan. 29 high of 11,171.77. The German DAX is also about 8.7% below its Jan. 23 high of 13,596.89."
• "The Nikkei 225, Nifty 50 and German DAX set their 2018 lows between March 2 and March 7, while the Nasdaq Composite set its all-time high on March 13."
• "The weekly chart for the Nikkei 225 is negative with the average below its five-week modified at 21,988 and well above its 200-week simple moving average of 18,520. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 25.78 this week, down from 30.81 on March 9."
• "The Nikkei is below my semiannual and annual pivots of 21,961 and 22,009, respectively. Below these levels is my quarterly value level of 19,360 and above is this month’s risky level of 23,225."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "A week marked by seesaw price action ended with a spirited push higher for the US Dollar. The rally was especially notable in that it occurred without an obvious fundamental catalyst. The week’s top data point of interest was February’s CPI print. The headline inflation rate printed exactly in line with forecasts at 2.2 percent, which eased worries about Fed rate hike acceleration and sent the greenback lower. A weekly bottom started taking shape a mere five hours later however, from which it rallied into Friday’s close.  The US currency’s preemptive rally telegraphs the markets’ concern with such an outcome. Momentum will probably slow ahead of the announcement, with traders unwilling to commit until after it hits the wires. When that happens, fireworks are likely. The Fed’s primacy in shaping trends coupled with a tame docket in the days thereafter also means follow-through faces few obstacles. Indeed, short work was made of Rex Tillerson’s actual ouster from the Trump administration and H.R. McMaster’s rumored one last week."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "While we remain neutral on Sterling at this current point, GBP may be in for a rocky ride next week with market moving data points including inflation, jobs and wages as well as the latest monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England. And just to round the week off, the EU Council will meet on Thursday/Friday to discuss the latest EU/UK transition period documents with UK businesses waiting for the outcome. The UK and the EU are targeting next week’s EU Council meeting to finalise a Brexit transition period, giving government and businesses the clarity the require to build for the future. While negotiations have taken a slight turn for the better of late, with both sides adopting a more conciliatory tone, there possibility of a last-minute hitch is still very real, an event that would hit both GBP and EUR lower."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The Australian Dollar is facing Big Thursday this week, as that’s the day when the bulk of likely market-moving news will hit. Also coming up on Thursday are official employment data for Australia, which may cause some binary currency reaction depending on how they go. But they are unlikely to unseat the markets’ settled view which is that any increase to the record low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate remains some way off. That message is likely to have been reinforced before the data by Monday’s release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last monetary policy meeting. So, we have an Australian Dollar facing an interesting week under some initial pressure but, ironically perhaps, susceptible to gains if the Fed raises rates but fails to pile on the hawkish pressure in its prognosis."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report displayed a further reduction in refined product stockpiles that reached their lowest levels since Spring 2015. At the same time, refinery utilization is ramping up intake at a pace surpassing previous years that was enough to calm sellers who saw the first crude build in inventories at the Cushing, OK storage hub in 12 weeks. The headline data saw a 6.27 million barrel decline in gasoline inventories and a larger than expected 5.02 million increase in crude inventories. In short, while upstream continues to produce, downstream continue to buy keeping the Bulls happy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) supported the global oil market by saying shale growth is helping to balance, as opposed to drown the market. The IEA’s focus in their monthly report was the falling supply of oil from Venezuela that has cut back on high levels of relative production due to their domestic economic crisis. As such, the global oil stockpile surplus is expected to dissipate by year-end putting the oil market in a decisive deficit helping to support crude oil price further."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)

Dax Index - "In terms of ‘high’ impact data, there is only one release next week. The ZEW survey for both Germany and the Euro-zone will be released at 10 GMT time on Tuesday. Traders will continue to keep an eye on the euro, although right now with it largely range-bound its impact is likely to be minimal in the week ahead. Watch how U.S. markets react to the Fed on Wednesday, as a carry-over reaction could be seen on Thursday’s open. The DAX is in recovery mode, but the general price action isn’t very powerful on the upside. It is lagging U.S. markets by a solid margin and depending on how things shape up there and impact risk, the strength of the S&P 500 will play a big part in whether the German benchmark can continue to bounce. The DAX is still at risk of carving out a lower-high from the bounce in February, which could cause downside pressure to be reasserted again soon. If the U.S. maintains a bid, though, look for the DAX to continue limping higher."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.