Press review - page 565

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Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, October 15 - October 22 (based on the article)

Dollar/CAD slipped from the highs in a much-needed correction. The upcoming week’s highlights are the inflation and retail sales reports. What’s next?


  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 12:30.  A lower number is likely now.
  2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. The quarterly report provides an insight on the economy, especially as it is released early in the quarter and comes from the BOC. After a very strong Q2, it will be interesting to see if the report points to a cooldown in the economy.
  3. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. The figure tends to move the loonie.
  4. Inflation report: Friday, 12:30. Core CPI remained flat and disappointed last month. The BOC also releases additional core measures: Common CPI stood at 1.5% y/y, the Median at 1.7% and the Trimmed at 1.4%. If they all move in one direction, the loonie will feel it as well.
  5. Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. If inflation does not provide big surprises, retail sales can take the lead in moving the C$.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 16-20 2017 | Forex Crunch
USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 16-20 2017 | Forex Crunch
  • 2017.10.13
  • Yohay Elam
  • www.forexcrunch.com
Dollar/CAD slipped from the highs in a much-needed correction. The upcoming week’s highlights are the inflation and retail sales reports. What’s next? Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian housing figures were mixed: housing starts beat expectations with 217K while building permits plunged by 5.5%. In...
 
DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
, there was little to no concern that there be a shortage of oil. Recent inventory data showed there is no shortage of crude, just difficulty in the delivery of refined products. Based on internal price action, I was keeping an eye on $48.15 per barrel, which was a terminating price of the triangle before the recent breakdown below $46 a...
 

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-10-17 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "At the meeting, the bank kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low 1.50 percent, as expected. The interest rate has been at this level since September 2016. The bank had reduced the rate by 25-basis points each in August and May last year."
  • "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
 

Trading the News: U.K. Employment Change (Claimant Count Change) (based on the article)

The U.K. added another 180K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 4.3% from 4.4% during the same period. Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, Average Weekly Earnings held steady at an annualized 2.1% amid forecasts for a 2.3% print, and signs of subdued wage growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to further delay the normalization cycle especially as Brexit clouds the economic outlook with high uncertainty. The batch of mixed data prints weighed on the British Pound, with GBP/USD pulling back from the 1.3300 handle to end the day at 1.3208. 

What’s Expected:


How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Household Earnings Remains Subdued

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the release to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Pound position, sell GBP/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish GBP Trade: Job, Wage Growth Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need a green, five-minute GBP/USD candle to favor a long Pound trade.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish Sterling position, just in the opposite direction.

GBP/USD Daily


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
warns the central bank will deliver a rate-hike over the ‘coming months,’ the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on November 2 as ‘ Nevertheless, we may see a growing rift within the BoE as officials argue ‘a withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had...
 

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily bullish; 59.48 is the key

2017-10-18 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is --2.7M
  • forecast data is -4.7M
  • actual data is -5.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

If the price breaks 58.10 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bearish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 57.82 support level to below on M5 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 59.48 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

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Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

 

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-10-19 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 53.0K
  • forecast data is 14.1K
  • actual data is 19.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 19,800 to 12,290,200. Full-time employment increased 6,100 to 8,398,200 and part-time employment increased 13,700 to 3,892,000."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.5%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Employment Change  news event 


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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA
  • www.rba.gov.au
Minutes of the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank Board are published two weeks after each meeting, and explain the monetary policy decision. The Reserve Bank Board normally meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except January.
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-10-19 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

  • past data is 6.9%
  • forecast data is 6.8%
  • actual data is 6.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

  • "China's gross domestic product expanded 1.7 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That was in line with forecasts and down from 1.8 percent in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 6.9 percent - unchanged from the previous three months and exceeding expectations for 6.8 percent."
  • "The bureau also said that industrial production jumped an annual 6.6 percent in September - beating forecasts for 6.5 percent and up from 6.0 percent in August."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 


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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

 

DAX Index - daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 13,088 resistance located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 12,900 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

The price on the weekly chart is on testing with 13,030 resistance to above for thebullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Yesterday, the DAX traded higher but found sellers and reversed. It wasn’t a ‘nasty’ reversal-day but the intra-day range of about 90 handles was the largest since the last trading day of September. It’s been a difficult little stretch indeed, with minimal volatility. That could be about to change."
  • "The mini surge higher and reversal out of the high-level consolidation formation is the kind of price action we were looking for as a sign-post a pullback may be in store. A drop below the consolidation low at 12909 will undermine not only the congestion pattern but also put the index back below the record high recorded in June. In this case it is reasonable to expect at the least we see a move towards the swing-high from July beneath 12700. Even if the DAX is to trade to new heights the market is in need of a pullback."
  • "Next week, the ECB meets on Thursday and we’ll learn more about the path Draghi and company want to take with regard to its QE program."
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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
and the high-level consolidation pattern under construction, making note that between the extended nature of the market and narrowness of the range a breakout was at risk of a failure. To add further to this notion is the fact that running just across the top of the consolidation is a pair of top-side trend-lines (2000-present, 2015-2017...
 

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-10-20 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 1.4% gain in August. The all-items CPI excluding gasoline rose 1.1% year over year in September, matching the gain in both July and August."
  • "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, matching the gain in August."

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USD/CAD M15: range price movement by Canada's CPI news event 


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Chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
CPI m/m - economic indicator of Canada - MQL5.community
CPI m/m - economic indicator of Canada - MQL5.community
  • www.mql5.com
Canada Consumer Price Index m/m measures the change in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services from the consumer perspective in the reported month compared to the previous month. The basket contains goods of unchanging quality...
 

EUR/USD - weekly bullish ranging foir direction (based on the article)

Weekly price is above Ichimoku kumo in the bullish ranging within 1.2091 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing and 1.1422 support level for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The timing of the nearly completed pattern and next week’s highly anticipated ECB meeting is certainly intriguing. It’s the type of clash or confluence between the technical posturing and a fundamental catalyst which could set into motion one-way trade for the foreseeable future."
  • "It appears, though, that a move higher will be the tougher road given the long-term levels in place from 2010-2012. On the other hand, a confirmed break of the ‘neckline’ should offer up the cleaner trade."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
continues to mature, with nearly three months of price action behind it. However, it won’t be validated until we see the euro decline below the ‘neckline’ which lies very near the monthly low at 11669. The ‘right shoulder’ appears to have been solidified back on October 12, but until we see a daily the ‘neckline’ the area just below 11700 will...
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