Press review - page 562

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada International Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2017-10-05 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -3.0B
• forecast data is -2.6B
• actual data is -3.4B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From official report :

• "Canada's merchandise trade deficit totalled $3.4 billion in August, widening from a $3.0 billion deficit in July. Exports decreased 1.0% on lower volumes, while imports were unchanged."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada International Merchandise Trade news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook - weekly ranging bullish; 173.86/161.56 are the keys (based on the article)

The share price on the weekly chart is on primary bullish market condition: price is located above Ichimoku cloud during the many years with the strong bullish trend. For now, the price is on local ranging within 173.86/161.56 support/resistance levels waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.

• "Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) has been facing somewhat of a “context collapse,” as many users have been less willing to share data and personal content in the face of increasing advocacy for privacy. This could potentially erode the company’s ability to serve targeted ads due to a decline in available user data, which would negatively impact revenue growth."
• "At the same time, users are sharing more news links and videos with their peers. Last year, Facebook streamlined the sharing of news links and introduced live video streaming services to its platform. More recently, the company has introduced popular features such as Stories to its platform and also extended its video offering across its platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and Whatsapp). Below we explore the strategy Facebook is following to ensure sustained growth in the future."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 - strong bullish in intra-day; 2,551 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish trend: price is testing 2,551 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "US 500: Retail trader data shows 16.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 5.22 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.3% lower than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.9% lower than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US 500 trading bias."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-10-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 169K
• forecast data is 82K
• actual data is -33K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

• "The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold - intra-day ranging bearish (based on the article)

The price on H4 chart is below 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area: price is on bearish ranging within 1,282 resistance level for the rally to be started and 1,260 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing

• "From an intraday perspective, we can count an impulse lower and we are seeing RSI divergence within the fifth wave. As a result, a bump higher may ensue to alleviate the oversold pressure. If a bounce develops, we are anticipating it to be a partial retracement of the September 10 October 6 down trend.
  $1290-$1310 might be an initial zone of resistance. Any strength would be seen as corrective with the potential for another leg lower of similar size and length as the $97 per ounce down trend."
• "From a sentiment perspective, the ratio of net long traders has shot higher to +4.1. Sentiment is a good contrarian tool so with the majority of traders net long, we would use that as a signal to short."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• Daily Box - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

The US dollar remained strong and enjoyed mostly upbeat data. Can we expect further gains? The focus remains on the greenback with the FOMC minutes, US retail sales and the all-important inflation figures Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. JOLTS Job Openings: Wednesday, 14:00. A level of 6.06 is on the cards now.
2. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the September, meeting, the announced the beginning of reducing its balance sheet, as widely expected. They also left their rate hike projections unchanged for 2017 (one more hike) and 2018 (3 hikes). The eagerness to continue raising rates comes despite slower inflation, something that Fed Chair Yellen described as a “mystery”. The minutes from that meeting are released now. It is important to note that the text is edited until the very last minute, leaving room for sending the desired message to markets. The focus will be on how worried they are of low inflation.
3. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% while the core number is predicted to advance by 0.2%.
4. Mario Draghi talks: Thursday, 14:15. The President of the ECB will talk in a panel in Washington and may shed some more light on the upcoming decision to reduce its bond-buying scheme. Will he still express concern about the exchange rate? EUR/USD is lower since he voiced his complaints.
5. Lael Brainard talks: Thursday, 14:15. Brainard is a permanent voter in the FOMC and her opinions are in line with the majority. She could provide a valuable to the latest jobs report and more importantly, about the potential rate hike in December.
6. Jerome Powell talks: Thursday, 14:30 and also Friday at 17:00. Powell is also a Fed Governor who rarely discusses monetary policy. Nevertheless, his words are of higher importance now as he is one of the candidates to head the Fed. In his previous appearance, Powell did not offer insights about interest rates.
7. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% this time, while core CPI by only 0.2%.
8. US retail sales: Friday, 12:30.Overall sales volume is predicted to bounce back by 1.5% and core sales by 0.9%.
9. US consumer sentiment: Friday, 14:00. We now get the preliminary release for October which is forecast to be very similar: 95.4 points.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under pressure once again, dropping for the second week in a row. The upcoming week’s highlight is a speech by Mario Draghi. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. German Industrial Production: Monday, 6:00.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This 2800 strong survey has stabilized on high ground in recent months. Back in September, it reached 28.2 points. Another small rise to 28.6 is on the cards for October.
3. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. German exports keep its trade balance positive. In July, the country recorded a surplus of 19.5 billion, slightly below expectations. A surplus of 20.1 billion is expected now.
4. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:45. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone saw its industrial output rise by 0.5% in July. The same rate is expected now.
5. French CPI (final): Thursday, 6:45. This is the final read for September. The drop of 0.1% that was originally reported will likely be confirmed in the final read.
6. Industrial Production: Thursday, 9:00. The euro-zone saw a modest growth in in its industrial production in July: 0.1%. A higher growth rate of 0.6% is on the cards now, but it is important to note that expectations may change after both Germany and France release their own numbers.
7. Mario Draghi talks: Thursday, 14:15. The President of the European Central Bank will participate in a panel in Washington. Draghi has an opportunity to hint about the upcoming ECB meeting, where a decision on reducing QE is expected. In early September, Draghi complained about the exchange rate, over and over again. While the markets ignored him at the time, EUR/USD is some 300 pips lower since then. Will he lower his tone about the euro? He may also be asked about the latest political developments, but will probably dodge these questions.
8. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00.Germany reported a small rise in price in September, 0.1%. The final read will likely confirm the initial one.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

GBP/USD extended its falls amid Brexit uncertainty and unimpressive economic data. Will it head below 1.30? The upcoming week features industrial output, the trade balance and more. Here are the key events for GBP/USD.

1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:00. The British Retail Consortium has shown a rise in sales in the past three months, a positive sign after some worries beforehand. After an advance of 1.3% in August, perhaps we will see a slide in September.
2. Industrial output: Tuesday, 8:30. While the UK economy leans heavily towards services, the industry still plays an important role. A rise of 0.2% was seen in industrial production back in July. The narrower manufacturing production advanced by 0.5% and is now expected to rise by 0.3%.
3. Goods Trade Balance: Tuesday, 8:30. Britain suffers from a trade deficit, which has worsened in the past year. A deficit of 11.6 billion was recorded in July. A similar deficit is on the cards now: 11.2 billion.
4. Construction Output: Tuesday, 8:30. The construction sector is suffering from contraction according to the latest PMI by Markit. It will be interesting to see if we will see another fall after -0.9% in July. A small rise is forecast now: 0.1%.
5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 12:00. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research provides a running estimate of GDP. In the three months ending in August, it showed a growth rate of 0.4%, better than in previous months. We will now get the figure for June to September, which is exactly Q3.
6. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes a monthly diffusion index for the housing sector. It almost fell to the negative ground in July but bounced back to 6%. A small slide to 4% is estimated now.
7. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Thursday, 8:30. The Bank of England’s report on credit conditions is watched for rate hike assessments. If conditions are too loose, the BOE has higher incentives to raise rates.
8. CB Leading Index: Friday, 13:30. This composite index uses 7 indicators, most of them already public. Nevertheless, it is of interest. A drop of 0.1% was recorded in July.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The week ahead offers plenty of fodder for continued speculation. Minutes from September’s FOMC meeting will help clarify policymakers’ thinking but a wealth of commentary since the sit-down has already established a clearly hawkish bias. That stance is by no means unanimous, but the driving core of the rate-setting committee seems to buy the case for on-coming reflation and the resulting need to tighten."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Then there’s the economic data. In the past week, purchasing managers’ indexes for the UK construction and manufacturing sectors in September were both weaker than expected. However, the PMIs are seen as “soft” data and the week to come sees “hard” – or official – data on industrial production, manufacturing output and trade. If they turn out stronger than predicted, that could revive forecasts, which are already high, that a UK interest rate increase is just around the corner. It has to be said, though, that this all seems rather unlikely and the more probable outcome is a further slide in GBP/USD, particularly if there are any hints from the Bank of England that now may not be the right time to raise rates after all. Note too that IG Client Sentiment data are currently sending out a bearish signal."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).