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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index fell initially during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled below the 94 level to continue selling off, and bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer. The hammer suggests that the buyers are going to come back into the marketplace, but this market is most certainly overbought by just about any metric measure it by. Because of this, we are bullish of the market but we recognize that it might be difficult to place long-term trades to the upside in general right now.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

Silver forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell after initially trying to rally during the course of the week. As you can see the area above the $17.00 level continues to be resistance, and as a result we ended up having a shooting star. The shooting star of course suggests weakness, but we see so much in the way of support below that we actually believe eventually the buyers will pick this market backup and send it much higher. With that, we are buyers, not sellers but do not have the right set up quite yet.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

Gold forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, as the nonfarm payroll numbers came out stronger than anticipated during the session on Friday. This of course brought the value of the US dollar, which of course turned back around against the gold markets. However, we see that the $1220 level below is massively supportive, and therefore a supportive candle would be reason enough to start buying in this general vicinity. We don’t have it yet obviously, but we will be watching this market for buying opportunities in this general vicinity.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support to turn things back around and break well above the 190 level. That being the case, the market almost looks as if it’s ready to plow through the 120 level next, and then ultimately break out for longer-term buy-and-hold type of trading. We have no interest in selling this market and we believe that the 115 level is the absolute bottom of the market going forward. With that, we are very bullish after a very positive nonfarm payroll number.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CHF forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair went back and forth during the course of the week, eventually forming a very neutral candle. We are struggling at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, so if we can break down below the bottom of the candle, we would be sellers. On the other hand, if we break above the top of it, we are not buyers because we see significant resistance at the 0.95 level as well based upon previous support, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sitting right on top of the large, round, psychologically significant handle.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the area below the 1.25 handle. That being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to bounce from here and perhaps head to the 1.28 handle. We think that the market will ultimately test the 1.30 level, and even if we break down below the bottom of the scandal, the 1.20 level below should be the “floor.” Ultimately, this is a very good uptrend but is a bit overbought at this point in time.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, forming a relatively neutral candle. It now looks as if market could sell off every time it rallies, and that’s exactly how we are going to approach the New Zealand dollar itself. We want to sell it every time it rises as a result of the bearishness that we have seen recently, and the central bank intervention out of Wellington. The US dollar continues to be the strongest currency in the Forex markets, so it makes sense that we continue lower.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 9, 201 find, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, after first testing the 1.50 level. With that, the market looks as if it is ready to try to fight its way higher, like a break of the top of the range. However, there is enough resistance above there at the 1.55 level to keep us from doing so as we believe the market will ultimately run into white a bit of resistance there. With that being said, this just isn’t a market that we like trading from a longer-term perspective at the moment.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair tried to break out above the 1.15 handle this week, but as you can see ran into far too much resistance and turned back around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign and we believe that a break below the bottom of it should bring in sellers back into the market. At that point time we would anticipate a move down to the 1.10 level as it is the next large, round, psychologically significant number, but ultimately we will probably go even lower than that given enough time. Rallies continue to offer selling opportunities.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98217
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD – Continues to Rest Above Support at 0.77 (based on marketpulse article)

For more than the last week now the Australian dollar has steadied well and traded in a narrow range between support at 0.77 and 0.78.  Earlier last week the Australian dollar was on a roller-coaster ride dropping sharply to a new multi-year low below 0.7630 before rallying strongly and moving back up above the 0.77 level and more recently 0.78 before easing back again into its present range.  It is presently relying on support from the current key level at 0.77. Prior to all the recent activity, in the last couple of weeks the Australian dollar fall very sharply and break lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200. The 0.77 range is currently offering some support to the Australian dollar which has allowed it to consolidate a little and temporarily stop the recent decline over the last week.  Several weeks ago it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82 only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level.  In doing so it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83 before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in.

Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and trade within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650. Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory.

It seems a long way away now but the Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.

Australia’s central bank lowered its 2015 growth and inflation forecasts and predicted unemployment will rise, underscoring this week’s decision to cut interest rates.  “Growth overall is now forecast to remain at a below-trend pace somewhat longer than had earlier been expected,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said Friday in its quarterly monetary policy statement in Sydney. “The economy is expected to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet, and domestic cost pressures are likely to remain subdued.”  The RBA reduced its forecast average expansion for this year to between 1.75 percent and 2.75 percent from between 2 percent and 3 percent estimated in November. It lowered projected headline consumer-price growth to 1.25 percent in the year through June from between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent seen three months earlier.

AUD/USD Technical

S3S2S1R1R2R3
0.7700 0.8200 0.8650 0.8800

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is heading lower back under the 0.78 level with eyes on the support around the 0.77 level.  Current range: trading back below 0.7800 around 0.7760.