Forecast and levels for EURO - page 14

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eurgbp setup idea for next weeks

Gabriel D Arco, 2017.10.08 15:47

i made my view on short tieme chart setup idea for next week 

we can see eurgbp keep is support . 
and after make a breakout of 1h chanel 
then after make a small range and breakout again 
but that i seen is the  on  and i think we have to wait a breakout of the RSI  for see a real next move 

Both eur and Gbp have polical problem 

one is brexit uncertainly other is Catalonia topic 

Have a good sunday


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.10 09:08

EUR/JPY - daily bullish ranging withinsymmetric triangle pattern (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging with symmetric triangle pattern within 133.11 resistance level and 131.84 support level.
If the price breaks 133.11 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be continuing with 134.40 as a nearest daily target, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "The pair put in quite the performance in the middle two quarters of 2017, jumping from a mid-April low below 115.00 to set a fresh 2017 high just a few weeks ago at 134.41. This move, of course, has been driven by a host of fundamental factors revolving around both the Euro and the Japanese Yen, and as we near what’s expected to be a pivotal European Central Bank meeting later in the month, that previously bullish move has continued to digest around higher-low support. "
  • "At current, both near-term support and resistance are being defined at least in-part by retracement levels from longer-term Fibonacci studies. The price of 132.05 is the 50% retracement of the 2008-2012 major move and this, along with the prior swing-high at 131.70 is helping to set current support. And on the resistance side, 134.41 is the 61.8% retracement of the 2014-2016 major move; and after two days of testing in mid-September, bears took over and brought prices down to that higher-low."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.12 08:14

EUR/USD - daily bullish reversal; 1.2092 is the target (based on the article)

Daily price is breaking Senkou Span line together with 1.1869 resistance level to above for the daily bullish reversal with 1.2092 daily target.


  • "The Euro has mounted a spirited recovery against the US Dollar after finding support near the 1.17 figure but the dominant trend bias still favors weakness. Near-term positioning continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, painting recent gains as corrective (at least for now)."
  • "From here, a daily close above the 1.1900 figure (trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2041-70 area (38.2% level, August 29 high). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% expansion at 1.1812 exposes the 1.1711-21 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, October 5 close)."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.13 11:46

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in both the headline and core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may undermine the near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

What’s Expected:


How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the CPI report to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Inflation Report Fails to Meet Market Forecast

  • Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement the same approach as the bullish dollar position, just in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD Daily


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.14 08:36

EUR/USD - 1.1879 is the key for the bullish; 1.1669 is the key for the daily correction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is moving to be above and near 55 SMA with 1.1879 resistance level to be crossing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The outlook for EURUSD heading into last week was for a bounce to develop, but that was all it was expected to be – a bounce. And now with resistance standing in the way and a broad topping formation dating back to early-August coming further into view, we’re ready to shift into reverse. The area from 11825 to 11880, as we noted a week ago, is viewed as a fairly formidable area of resistance. Should we see resistance hold as reliable and a decline soon develop, the ‘right shoulder’ of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern could become cemented. "
  • "Support on weakness will come in at the neckline of the pattern, which arrives near the monthly low at 11669. Given the lack of recent volatility a break below there may not develop in the days ahead, but if we see a closing bar below the ‘neckline’ of the formation then a much broader move lower is expected. For now, though, the ‘neckline’ will be viewed for what it is – support. A strong push beyond the 11880/910 area will be needed if the bounce is to potentially develop into something more meaningful."

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Chart was made on using standard indicators with Metatrader 5 together the following:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.21 15:51

EUR/USD - weekly bullish ranging foir direction (based on the article)

Weekly price is above Ichimoku kumo in the bullish ranging within 1.2091 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing and 1.1422 support level for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The timing of the nearly completed pattern and next week’s highly anticipated ECB meeting is certainly intriguing. It’s the type of clash or confluence between the technical posturing and a fundamental catalyst which could set into motion one-way trade for the foreseeable future."
  • "It appears, though, that a move higher will be the tougher road given the long-term levels in place from 2010-2012. On the other hand, a confirmed break of the ‘neckline’ should offer up the cleaner trade."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.22 08:53

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, October 22 - October 29 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under some pressure on the ongoing crisis in Catalonia. The upcoming week is dominated by the all-important ECB decision. What will be the new size of the QE program? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German Buba Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00.
  2. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 14:00. The official measure of inflation by Eurostat got very close to reaching a balanced level of 0, but remains in negative numbers. At -1 seen in September, consumer confidence appears to be mildly pessimistic. A similar level is on the cards now.
  3. Flash PMIs: Tuesday morning: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-zone.
  4. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank.
  5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00.
  6. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 7:00. The fourth-largest economy suffered from the crisis in Catalonia, but this will not appear in the quarterly unemployment rate for Q3. In Q2, it stood at a whopping level of 17.2%, yet this is much lower than the peak of above 27% seen in the worst years.
  7. Monetary data: Thursday, 8:00.
  8. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30.

 

Look at the EURUSD chart:

This is the daily timeframe. Today, on this graph, we see a flat. In this case, the blue frame clearly shows the reversal figure "Head and Shoulders". That is, we can confidently predict that the pair EURUSD will go down. I think that in a week we will all say that EURUSD has a downward trend.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.24 09:54

EUR/USD - intra-day bearish below ranging reversal levels (based on the article)

H4 intra-day price is located below 200 SMA/55 SMA levels in the primary bearish area of the chart: the price is testing the last MA channel level at 1.1714 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. 


  • "Though we cannot say for sure which of the patterns we are in, I am leaning towards a continuation of a fourth wave triangle. The triangle pattern implies EUR/USD remains supported above 1.1662 and moves into the 1.19 handle, possibly as high as 1.20."
  • "If the fourth wave was a flat pattern and if the flat has previously ended then it implies we are travelling higher in the fifth and final wave. Under this scenario, EUR/USD likely breaks above 1.20 and may move as high as 1.22."

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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.26 14:00

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference and range price movement 

2017-10-26 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

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From official report :

  • "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."
  • "As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at the current monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017. From January 2018 the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €30 billion until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration."
  • "The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance."
  • "The main refinancing operations and the three-month longer-term refinancing operations will continue to be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the last reserve maintenance period of 2019."

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EUR/USD M30: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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