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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Quick Technical Overview - NZD/USD Levels Ahead of FOMC Minutes (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish breakdown located below Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 0.7055 support to below for the breakdown to be continuing.


  • "In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds".



  • "One-day implied volatility is relatively ‘normal’ across the dollar-spectrum. So far, it’s been a rather ‘ho-hum’ type of day with limited price movement, and while there is likely to be a spat of volatility following the release of the minutes, it could remain a fairly uneventful day once the dust settles through the NY close. At 18:00 GMT time, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released, and again, while there aren’t big expectations for major price swings it’s always prudent to be prepared in the event of a surprise".

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily bullish reversal; 1.2092 is the target (based on the article)

Daily price is breaking Senkou Span line together with 1.1869 resistance level to above for the daily bullish reversal with 1.2092 daily target.


  • "The Euro has mounted a spirited recovery against the US Dollar after finding support near the 1.17 figure but the dominant trend bias still favors weakness. Near-term positioning continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, painting recent gains as corrective (at least for now)."
  • "From here, a daily close above the 1.1900 figure (trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2041-70 area (38.2% level, August 29 high). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% expansion at 1.1812 exposes the 1.1711-21 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, October 5 close)."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Euro has mounted a spirited recovery against the US Dollar after finding support near the 1.17 figure but the dominant trend bias still favors weakness. Near-term positioning continues to be defined by a series of lower highs and lows, painting recent gains as corrective (at least for now). From here, a daily close above the 1.1900 figure...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index 

2017-10-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Chart #2 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Producer Price Index News Release text
Producer Price Index News Release text
  • www.bls.gov
Month Total final demand Final demand less foods, energy, and trade Final demand goods Final demand services Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.) Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12 mo. ago (unadj.) Total Foods Energy Less foods and energy Total Trade Transportation and warehousing Other Month...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD - intra-day bear market rally (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on secondary rally by 0.7134 resistance level to be crossing to above for the bear  market rally to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern, hinting that a reversal higher against its US counterpart may be in the works. Interestingly, the currency seems to be finding strength despite continued political uncertainty after an inconclusive general election."
  • "Near-term resistance is in the 0.7132-40 area (August 31 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close above that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7196. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7105 paves the way for another challenge of resistance-turned-support at 0.7054."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Dollar put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern, hinting that a reversal higher against its US counterpart may be in the works. Interestingly, the currency seems to be Near-term resistance is in the 0.7132-40 area (August 31 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close above that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging near bullish reversal; daily bullish ranging for direction

2017-10-12 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -6.0M
  • forecast data is -1.9M
  • actual data is -2.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M15: ranging near bullish reversal. The price is located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 56.57/56.45 support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 56.57 resistance level to above on M15 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 56.45 support level to below on M15 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging for direction. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 57.25 resistance level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 59.48 nearest bullish target to re-enter., otherwise - the ranging within the levels.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in both the headline and core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may undermine the near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

What’s Expected:


How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the CPI report to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Inflation Report Fails to Meet Market Forecast

  • Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement the same approach as the bullish dollar position, just in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD Daily


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike over the coming months. and Co. may prepare Canadian households and businesses for another rate-hike at the next meeting on October 25 as the central bank notes that...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - 1.1879 is the key for the bullish; 1.1669 is the key for the daily correction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is moving to be above and near 55 SMA with 1.1879 resistance level to be crossing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The outlook for EURUSD heading into last week was for a bounce to develop, but that was all it was expected to be – a bounce. And now with resistance standing in the way and a broad topping formation dating back to early-August coming further into view, we’re ready to shift into reverse. The area from 11825 to 11880, as we noted a week ago, is viewed as a fairly formidable area of resistance. Should we see resistance hold as reliable and a decline soon develop, the ‘right shoulder’ of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern could become cemented. "
  • "Support on weakness will come in at the neckline of the pattern, which arrives near the monthly low at 11669. Given the lack of recent volatility a break below there may not develop in the days ahead, but if we see a closing bar below the ‘neckline’ of the formation then a much broader move lower is expected. For now, though, the ‘neckline’ will be viewed for what it is – support. A strong push beyond the 11880/910 area will be needed if the bounce is to potentially develop into something more meaningful."

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Chart was made on using standard indicators with Metatrader 5 together the following:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Bitcoin - daily bullish breakout; 6,000 is the key target (based on the article)

Daily price is breaking 5,406 resistance level to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing with 6,000 psy level as a nearest bullish target.


  • "Bitcoin has a couple of things in common with the famous 17th century tulips -- as an investment vehicle that is. One of them is the promise to change peoples’ lives, which excites and hypes investor imagination. Another is the astronomical rise in the prices of the two investment vehicles, which helped early investors amass fortunes in short periods of time."
  • "A fixed supply makes Bitcoin prices demand driven. The more people become familiar with the cryptocurrency, the higher the demand and the price for Bitcoins."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Litecoin - daily bullish isa near to be started; 76 is the key target (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and below Ichimoku cloud by 59 resistance level to be testing for the primary bullish reversal to be started.


  • "Litecoin prices have risen sharply over the last month, climbing more than 100% since mid-September. "Litecoin is just cruising in Bitcoin's wake," said Tim Enneking, managing director of Crypto Asset Management."
  • "Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of leveraged digital currency platform CryptoCompare, offered a similar point of view, asserting that "the majority" of Litecoin's recent price increase could be linked to Bitcoin's rise."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101650
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 15 - October 22 (based on the article)

The greenback was unable to hold onto its rally as weak inflation continues weighing. What’s next? We will hear some Fed reactions and also a wide variety of figures from all over the world Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


    1. Janet Yellen talks: Sunday, 13:00, before markets open. The Chair of the Fed will address a forum of the G-30 and may provide some hints about the next moves coming from the central bank. She will have an opportunity to respond to the inflation figures.
    2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. The data for August showed an annual rise of 2.9%, which is quite rapid. A rise to 3% is expected.
    3. Bill Dudley talks: Wednesday, 12:00. Dudley is, in effect, No. 2 in the Fed, as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is stepping down. He has been quite upbeat about the economy, contrary to his previous dovish stance. Like Yellen, he will have an opportunity to comment on the inflation data.
    4. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are projected to tick down to 1.25 million while housing starts are forecast to remain unchanged.
    5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. The unemployment rate stood at 5.6% and no change is on the cards now.
    6. Chinese GDP: Thursday, 2:00. The publication comes as the Chinese Communist Party convenes for its twice a decade Congress. In addition, the country will publish industrial output, retail sales, and other figures.
    7. US Existing Home Sales: Friday, 14:00. A level of 5.32 million is expected now.

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    The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

    Forex Weekly Outlook - Oct. 16-20 2017 | Forex Crunch
    Forex Weekly Outlook - Oct. 16-20 2017 | Forex Crunch
    • 2017.10.13
    • Yohay Elam
    • www.forexcrunch.com
    The greenback was unable to hold onto its rally as weak inflation continues weighing. What’s next? We will hear some Fed reactions and also a wide variety of figures from all over the world Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. Updates: Janet Yellen talks: Sunday, 13:00, before markets open. The Chair of the Fed will address a forum of...