University of Michigan United States 5-Year Inflation Expectations

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Prices
Low 2.4% 2.5%
2.6%
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
2.5%
2.4%
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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University of Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations demonstrate how US consumers estimate the possibility of growth of prices for goods and services for the next 5 years. The index is calculated monthly based on data collected from a telephone survey of at least 500 US households. The questionnaire includes more than 50 questions on three broad areas of consumer sentiment: personal finance, business conditions and purchasing power.

Inflationary expectations are estimated based on whether respondents expect price growth or decline in the next 5 years and how they assess the percentage of such change. Also, consumers try to evaluate a possible change in their real incomes (and hence expenditures) for the same period.

Michigan University Inflation Expectations allows evaluating what dynamics consumers expect and how they may spend money in the future. The index normally correlates well with other indexes characterizing inflation (CPI, etc.). The questionnaire covers everyday life across the country, with the exception of Alaska and Hawaii. That is why the index is considered to be a representative leading indicator of inflation and consumer activity.

Lower readings indicate that consumers do not expect prices to rise. Conversely, the index growth suggests that households are ready for price increase. The Michigan Inflation Expectations index growth is generally seen as positive for the US dollar.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "University of Michigan United States 5-Year Inflation Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Dec 2018 prelim.
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
Nov 2018
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%
Nov 2018 prelim.
2.6%
2.4%
2.4%
Oct 2018
2.4%
2.5%
2.3%
Oct 2018 prelim.
2.3%
2.5%
2.5%
Sep 2018
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
Sep 2018 prelim.
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
Aug 2018
2.6%
2.4%
2.5%
Aug 2018 prelim.
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
Jul 2018
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
Jul 2018 prelim.
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
Jun 2018
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
Jun 2018 prelim.
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
May 2018
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
May 2018 prelim.
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Apr 2018
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
Apr 2018 prelim.
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
Mar 2018
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Mar 2018 prelim.
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Feb 2018
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Feb 2018 prelim.
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Jan 2018
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
Jan 2018 prelim.
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
Dec 2017
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
Dec 2017 prelim.
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
Nov 2017
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
Nov 2017 prelim.
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
Oct 2017
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
Oct 2017 prelim.
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
Sep 2017
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
Sep 2017 prelim.
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
Aug 2017
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Aug 2017 prelim.
2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
Jul 2017
2.6%
2.6%
Jul 2017 prelim.
2.6%
2.5%
Jun 2017
2.5%
2.6%
Jun 2017 prelim.
2.6%
2.4%
May 2017
2.4%
2.3%
May 2017 prelim.
2.3%
2.4%
Apr 2017
2.4%
2.4%
Apr 2017 prelim.
2.4%
2.4%
Mar 2017
2.4%
2.2%
Mar 2017 prelim.
2.2%
2.5%
Feb 2017
2.5%
2.5%
Feb 2017 prelim.
2.5%
2.6%
Jan 2017
2.6%
2.5%
Jan 2017 prelim.
2.5%
2.3%
Dec 2016
2.3%
2.5%
Dec 2016 prelim.
2.5%
2.6%
Nov 2016
2.6%
2.7%

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