Nationwide United Kingdom House Price Index (HPI) y/y

Country:
United Kingdom
GBP, Pound sterling
Sector:
Housing
Medium 10.7% 11.7%
11.2%
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
11.0%
10.7%
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) y/y is published by one of the world's largest building societies and one of the largest mortgage service providers in the UK. It demonstrates a change in the average price of residential property in the country for the given month compared to the same month of the previous year, based on a data collected by Nationwide since 1952.

HPI information is derived from Nationwide lending data. Property transactions paid by cash are not included in the sample data. The index is seasonally adjusted, because winter months tend to see weaker price rises and spring/summer see higher increases due to market activity changes.

A house price depends on its characteristics, including physical properties (size and number of rooms), as well as the type of district the house is located in. Therefore, the average house cost is calculated using a hedonic regression rather than a simple arithmetic mean. This allows calculating the price of an average "typical" UK house and its change over time. This "typical" house does not physically exist; it represents a certain model with given characteristics, which, in turn, are used in a mathematical formula.

Some transaction types are excluded from the calculation, since they can distort the statistical picture. The following registrations are excluded from the calculations:

  • Remortgages and further advances
  • Purchases to let properties
  • Properties sold with the right to buy sales at discounted price

Nationwide Housing Price Index is an alternative inflation index in the UK housing market. Its advantage over the HPI provided by the Office for National Statistics is a deeper data sampling (quarterly price change statistics have been collected since 1952). The weak point is the limited data source (only mortgage loans issued by Nationwide, no cash transactions).

The index growth can be seen as positive for the pound quotes since it indicates an inflationary increase in the property market.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "Nationwide United Kingdom House Price Index (HPI) y/y" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Jun 2022
10.7%
11.7%
11.2%
May 2022
11.2%
13.4%
12.1%
Apr 2022
12.1%
13.8%
14.3%
Mar 2022
14.3%
12.1%
12.6%
Feb 2022
12.6%
10.9%
11.2%
Jan 2022
11.2%
10.3%
10.4%
Dec 2021
10.4%
10.0%
10.0%
Nov 2021
10.0%
7.3%
9.9%
Oct 2021
9.9%
6.8%
10.0%
Sep 2021
10.0%
8.6%
11.0%
Aug 2021
11.0%
8.1%
10.5%
Jul 2021
10.5%
15.8%
13.4%
Jun 2021
13.4%
9.1%
10.9%
May 2021
10.9%
6.3%
7.1%
Apr 2021
7.1%
3.9%
5.7%
Mar 2021
5.7%
8.7%
6.9%
Feb 2021
6.9%
4.6%
6.4%
Jan 2021
6.4%
7.0%
7.3%
Dec 2020
7.3%
7.7%
6.5%
Nov 2020
6.5%
5.9%
5.8%
Oct 2020
5.8%
6.6%
5.0%
Sep 2020
5.0%
2.1%
3.7%
Aug 2020
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
Jul 2020
1.5%
-0.6%
-0.1%
Jun 2020
-0.1%
2.7%
1.8%
May 2020
1.8%
3.2%
3.7%
Apr 2020
3.7%
2.6%
3.0%
Mar 2020
3.0%
2.0%
2.3%
Feb 2020
2.3%
2.2%
1.9%
Jan 2020
1.9%
1.8%
1.4%
Dec 2019
1.4%
0.9%
0.8%
Nov 2019
0.8%
0.2%
0.4%
Oct 2019
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
Sep 2019
0.2%
1.1%
0.6%
Aug 2019
0.6%
0.3%
Jul 2019
0.3%
0.5%
Jun 2019
0.5%
0.6%
May 2019
0.6%
0.9%
Apr 2019
0.9%
0.7%
Mar 2019
0.7%
0.4%
Feb 2019
0.4%
0.1%
Jan 2019
0.1%
0.5%
Dec 2018
0.5%
1.9%
Nov 2018
1.9%
1.6%
Oct 2018
1.6%
2.0%
Sep 2018
2.0%
2.0%
Aug 2018
2.0%
2.5%
Jul 2018
2.5%
2.0%
Jun 2018
2.0%
2.4%
May 2018
2.4%
2.6%

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