EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 21.06 - 28.06: how much longer do we have to wait for direction?

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.19 17:19

Forex Weekly Outlook June 22-26 (based on forexcrunch article)

US Existing Home Sales, Jerome Powell’s speech, US Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo Business Climate, US Final GDP, US Unemployment Claims are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way.

Last week U.S. Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting concluded with a decision to maintain current monetary policy. However, Fed Chair Yellen stated the Federal Reserve may increase rates by as much as 2% until the end of next year, with gradual hikes in between, if “more decisive evidence” arrives from the US labor market. At the same time, the Fed lowered their projections of growth this year, to a range between 1.8% and 2.0%, from the 2.3% to 2.7% rise they predicted in March. Will we see stronger US data in the coming months?

1. US Existing Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The number of previously owned home sales declined to 5.04 million annualized rate in April, following strong reading of 5.21 million in March. Analysts expected home sales to reach 5.23 million. Prices jumped since the start of 2014 and the housing inventory contracted at same time last year. However, economists estimate the housing market will continue its progress in the coming months due to higher wages and low mortgage rates. Existing home sales are expected to reach 5.29 million this time.
2. Jerome Powell speaks: Tuesday, 12:00. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powel will speak in Washington DC and talk about the recent monetary policy meeting and its decisions. Market volatility is expected.
3. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. The capital goods rebounded in April despite the sharp decline in aircraft-related orders. Excluding transportation core orders edged up 0.5% following a 0.6 gain in the previous month, indicating growth in business investment. A sharp decline of 3.6% in civilian aircraft orders caused the negative reading of -0.5%. Analysts expected a slightly better reading of -0.4%. However, other sectors showed a positive increase. Durable goods orders are expected to reach -0.5% while core orders are forecasted to rise 0.6%.
4. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. German Ifo business confidence fell for the first time in seven months in May, to 108.5 compared following 108.6 in April. However, the reading was better than the 108.3 forecasted by analysts. The drop in sentiment was due to uncertainty over Greece’s place in the euro-area and the negative effect of a Greek default on the 19-nation currency bloc. German business sentiment is expected to reach 108.2.
5. US Final GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. GDP growth expanded by 2.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2014, unrevised from the February forecast. Business investment declined but strong domestic demand balanced the slowdown. Corporate profits fell 1.6% while increasing 4.7% in the third quarter. Furthermore, imports outweighed exports, resulting in a trade deficit that slowed GDP growth. Economists forecasted 2.4% growth in the fourth quarter. GDP in the first quarter is expected to contract 0.2%.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 claims last week to a seasonally adjusted 267,000. The reading was well below forecasts, pushing the four-week moving average down by 2,000 to 276,750. Continuing jobless claims fell by 50,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.22 million, indicating US labor market continues to improve. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 271,000 this week.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.22 19:00

EUR/USD Double Top or About to Breakout? (based on dailyfx article)

'EUR/USD recorded a new month-to-date high late last weekand actually came within a few pips of testing the quarter-to-date closing high at 1.1442 before stalling out. Is the euro undergoing a double top backtest before turning lower or is it about to break out and extend the multi-month advance? The next 24-28 hours should prove key in determining which path the euro will take as near-term cyclical analysis suggests we have reached an inflection point of sorts. If the broader downtrend is going to re-assert itself here then EUR/USD shouldn’t really rally past last week’s 1.1435 high. Traction above this level would be a strong sign that multi-month correction in the single currency is nowhere near finished. A failure, on the other hand, at or around current levels followed by a break of median-line channel support at 1.1230 over the next few sessions would confirm a change in behavior and re-focus attention lower in the single currency.'

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.23 20:34

Barclays - Trading Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: A succession of “doji” topping candles adds to our bearish conviction. We are looking for a move lower towards the 1.1050 area after reaching our initial downside targets near 1.1150. Beyond there we look for a move towards 1.0815 and then the 1.0460 year-to-date lows. The 1.1470 highs provide selling interest.

USD/JPY: Monday’s engulfing candle endorses our bullish view. We are looking for a move higher towards initial targets near 124.45 and then 125.85. Further out we are targeting the 132.20 area.

GBP/USD: We have turned neutral in the short term. Monday’s low close confirms the prior topping candle and signals a move lower in range as investors lock in profits from the June rally. Risk is seen towards 1.5640, possibly 1.5550, before a base can form. Overall we are bullish towards 1.6000 and then targets near 1.6200.

AUD/USD: We are bearish against the 0.7850 recent highs and look for a move lower towards targets near 0.7600 and then the 0.7530 year-to-date lows. Further out, we are targeting the 0.7100 area.