Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 26 – 30, 2026

The past week became one of the weakest for the US dollar in recent months. USD began to lose its status as an unconditional safe-haven asset. Political and geopolitical uncertainty around the United States increased noticeably. Resonant statements by Donald Trump and the escalation of the Greenland issue became additional pressure factors. Against this background, the market switched to a Sell America mode, triggering capital outflows from dollar-denominated assets.

Support from the Federal Reserve also weakened. Inflation expectations in the US declined moderately. This reduced arguments in favour of a more restrictive monetary policy. At the same time, strong macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom supported the pound and increased pressure on the US currency, pushing the DXY dollar index down from 99.4 to 97.6.

💶 EUR/USD

Previously, we suggested that a confident breakout above 1.1700 would signal the cancellation of the bearish scenario and form potential for a move towards 1.1820. This forecast proved to be correct. Over the week, the EUR/USD pair rose by 250 points – from 1.1577 to 1.1827 – and returned to the upper boundary of the sideways channel in which it has been trading since July 2025. In the coming week, the pair may test resistance in the 1.1880-1.1920 zone. A confident breakout of this area will confirm bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.1975-1.2050. However, after last week’s strong rally, a bearish correction towards 1.1770 cannot be ruled out, followed by a move to the 1.1680-1.1725 support zone. A breakdown below this area would increase the risk of a decline towards 1.1580-1.1615.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Renewed investor flight from risk assets, of course, also affected bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair failed to hold above the upper boundary of the consolidation range at 83,800-94,500 and fell towards the Pivot Point at 90,000. On Saturday, January 24, it is trading around 89,500. If bitcoin still reacts to the weaker dollar, it may have a chance to partially recover its losses. The nearest obstacle will be the 90,350-91,500 zone, a breakout of which would allow the pair to target 94,500-95,000. The next target is 98,000. If risk appetites in the market continue to decline, the BTC/USD pair may extend its fall. The nearest support zone is 86,360-87,175, followed by 83,800-85,100.

🛢 Brent Crude Oil

Unlike bitcoin, oil responded to the weaker dollar with a rise in prices to 65.33 USD per barrel. Brent has formed a new support level at 62.75. If this level fails, prices may fall into the 61.80-62.15 zone. The next strong support is at 61.00. In the case of continued bullish momentum, bulls may make another attempt to consolidate above 66.50, which would open the way towards 67.80-68.50.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Back in December, we forecast a rise in gold during the first months of 2026 to 5,000 dollars per ounce. It appears that this forecast may be fulfilled already by the end of January – on Friday, the final chord for the XAU/USD pair sounded at 4,988. A new upward attempt will bring the 5,050 and 5,120 levels into focus, from where a correction lower is possible. However, a bull trap cannot be ruled out, when the price, failing to overcome the 5,000 level, reverses sharply to the downside. The nearest support levels are 4,900-4,935. If selling pressure intensifies, the risk of a deeper decline increases – towards 4,765. The next strong support is at 4,640.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

In the coming week, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28 and the regulator’s rhetoric, which may set the tone for interest rate expectations for the coming months. Additional interest will be generated by US GDP data for Q4, as well as inflation and labour market statistics. In Europe, investors will assess business activity indicators (PMI) and signals from the ECB.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – moderately bullish while the price holds above 1.1680-1.1725. BTC/USD – neutral to bearish while the price remains below 91,500. Brent – cautiously bullish while prices stay above 62.75. Gold – preservation of the upward structure, buying on corrections while XAU/USD holds above 4,900.