Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 23 – 27, 2026

The past week did not lead to the formation of new sustainable trends. In the United States, the publication of the preliminary GDP estimate for Q4 showed continued positive dynamics without signs of overheating, while statistics on personal income and spending indicated moderate consumer behaviour. This kept yields within a range and did not allow the dollar to form a strong directional impulse. In Europe, ZEW economic sentiment data were restrained, and the absence of new signals from the ECB kept EUR/USD in a consolidation phase.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair finished the week at 1.1780, failing to consolidate above 1.1925-1.1930 while at the same time holding support at 1.1765-1.1775. In case of another attempt to break 1.1925, the target will be 1.2000 and далее 1.2080. If pressure on the euro increases and support at 1.1765 does not hold, the next downside target will be the 1.1700 area, followed by the 1.1580-1.1620 and 1.1470-1.1500 zones. In the coming week, the pair’s dynamics will largely depend on the publication of US consumer confidence indices and inflation indicators in Germany. The absence of strong surprises may preserve the range-bound nature of trading.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

BTC/USD continues to move within the 65,100-72,260 channel. On Saturday, February 21, it is trading in the 68,000 area. Attempts to move above 72,260 have not yet developed, indicating a lack of fundamental drivers and caution among market participants. In case of a breakout above 75,500-80,000, the next target for bulls will remain a return to the 85,000-90,000 corridor. If pressure persists and the price falls below 65,100, the risks of testing 63,000 and далее 59,800 will increase. More distant bearish targets at 54,000 and 49,000 remain in the medium term. During the current week, the cryptocurrency market will be sensitive to shifts in the global risk-on or risk-off environment, as well as to US yield dynamics.

🛢 Brent Oil

Brent continues to trade near the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel that began forming in October 2023. Last week the price managed to rise above resistance at 70.45 dollars per barrel and finish at 71.18. However, it is still premature to consider this a confident breakout beyond the descending channel. In the coming days, a test of the 72.70 area with a target at 73.00 cannot be excluded, and if momentum strengthens – a move towards 76.30 and 77.75. Under a bearish news background, supports remain at 66.30, 65.00 and 62.70. Dynamics will depend on the situation between the United States and Iran and on assessments of global demand prospects.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

In the previous forecast, we warned about a possible correction towards the line of medium-term ascending support. This is exactly what occurred in the first half of the week, followed by a rebound and a close at 5,105 dollars per ounce. Attempts to consolidate above the 5,090-5,120 zone have not yet produced a sustainable result; however, the targets at 5,180 and 5,450 remain relevant. If demand for safe-haven assets persists, attempts to обновить the historical high at 5,595 cannot be excluded. At the same time, the risk of correction remains. The nearest support is located at 4,950, followed by the 4,840-4,875 zone. A breakout below it will open the way to a deeper correction towards 4,550-4,640.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

During the week of February 23–27, market attention will be focused on the US consumer confidence index (CB Consumer Confidence), the publication of inflation data in Germany (CPI), and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In Japan, inflation data (CPI) will be released, which may affect yen pairs. Overall, the fundamental background remains moderate, and the absence of interest rate decisions by major central banks reduces the likelihood of sharp trend reversals.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – moderately bullish while the price holds above 1.1765. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 75,500-80,000. Brent – bearish while quotations are below 72.70-73.00. XAU/USD – bullish while prices hold above 4,840-4,875.