Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 02 – 06, 2026
The past week unfolded in a consolidation mode for the US dollar, gold, and a number of other key assets. Ahead of the release of significant macroeconomic data, market participants maintained a wait-and-see stance, which kept major currency pairs and commodity instruments within relatively narrow ranges. However, over the weekend the geopolitical situation escalated sharply: the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iranian territory, followed by a response from Tehran. Under these conditions, the opening of markets on Monday may be accompanied by large gaps and a surge in volatility. The coming days may be marked by heightened turbulence in oil and other assets sensitive to the global risk environment.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair finished the week at 1.1814, holding support at 1.1765-1.1775 but failing to consolidate above 1.1925-1.1930. Thus, the moderately bullish scenario remains valid as long as quotations stay above 1.1765. A breakout above 1.1925 would open the way towards 1.2000 and далее to 1.2080. If demand for the dollar strengthens amid rising geopolitical risks, pressure on the euro cannot be ruled out, with a potential test of 1.1700. Accordingly, the 1.1580-1.1620 and 1.1470-1.1500 zones remain relevant.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
The weekly trading range of bitcoin was 62,415-70,000. On Saturday, February 28, the price was trading around 64,000. The failure to break above 72,260 confirms continued investor caution. The baseline neutral-to-bearish scenario for BTC/USD remains valid while quotations stay below this level. A breakout of this range would open the way to 75,500-80,000, after which the next target for bulls would be a return to the 85,000-90,000 corridor. If global risk-off sentiment intensifies and the price falls below 62,415, the risks of testing 59,785 will increase. More distant targets at 54,000 and 49,000 remain relevant in the medium term. The geopolitical factor may trigger short-term spikes in volatility, but a sustainable direction will be determined by overall investor risk sentiment.
🛢 Brent Oil
Oil remains the asset most sensitive to the current tense situation. At Friday’s high, Brent rose to 73.41 and finished at 72.91 dollars per barrel. Military escalation in the Middle East may trigger a sharp increase in quotations already at the start of the week. If prices consolidate above 73.00, the next targets will be 76.30 and 77.75. If tensions persist, a rise towards the 79.0-80.60 zone cannot be excluded. However, in the event of de-escalation and stabilisation, a return within the long-term descending channel is possible. The nearest supports are 70.30, 68.25 and 66.30, with medium-term supports at 65.00 and 62.70.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold consolidated above the 5,090-5,120 zone and finished the week at 5,279 dollars per ounce, maintaining a bullish structure. The targets at 5,180 and 5,450 remain relevant. Amid the escalation of the conflict, attempts to update the historical high at 5,595 cannot be excluded. At the same time, the risk of correction remains if the geopolitical situation stabilises. The nearest support is 5,090-5,120, followed by 4,950-5,000 and 4,840-4,875. A breakout below this area would open the way to 4,550-4,640.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
On March 02, market attention will focus on the publication of Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) in the United States and EU countries. On March 03, inflation data (CPI) in Europe will be released, and on Friday – the US labour market report, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate, and wage growth data. However, the geopolitical factor may become the dominant driver of price movements.
Baseline scenarios, according to XFINE experts, are as follows: EUR/USD – moderately bullish while the price holds above 1.1765. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 72,260-75,500. Brent – bullish if prices consolidate above 73.00. XAU/USD – bullish while prices hold above 4,950-5,000.
