Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 09 – 13, 2026
The past week confirmed the accuracy of most key forecasts. In the US, the publication of the labour market report, as well as data on business activity and inflation expectations, confirmed the heterogeneous macroeconomic picture – labour market resilience was combined with signs of a slowdown in certain segments of the economy. This increased investor caution and triggered profit taking. In Europe, PMI indicators and comments from ECB representatives did not provide clear signals on monetary policy, keeping currency markets in a consolidation phase. In commodity markets, the geopolitical factor continued to have an impact, causing sharp intraday fluctuations in oil and precious metals.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week at 1.1815, attempting to stabilise after uneven dynamics in January. Prices are trading near key support levels, while technical indicators point to a lack of strong directional momentum. A breakout of the 1.1775-1.1800 area may lead to a decline towards 1.1700, with the next support in the 1.1580-1.1620 zone, followed by 1.1470-1.1500. At the same time, an upward rebound from the current consolidation area cannot be ruled out. A breakout of the 1.1870-1.1900 level would confirm bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.2000 and 1.2080.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On 06 February, bitcoin fell to 2024 levels. The low was recorded at 59,786, followed by a rebound to the 69,000-70,000 area. Thus, the decline from the all-time high exceeded 50%. This is no longer a correction after growth, but a phase of weak demand in a risk-off environment. The lack of obvious drivers is forcing institutional investors to withdraw assets from ETFs, strengthening bearish sentiment among retail investors as well. In the worst-case scenario, by 2027 the asset price could collapse to 40,000. During the upcoming week, BTC/USD may attempt to continue its rise towards the 75,000-80,000 zone. If this resistance is broken, the next target for bulls will be an attempt to return to the 85,000-90,000 range. Sustained trading below 75,000-80,000 keeps elevated risks of a bearish scenario.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
For the second consecutive week, Brent crude oil has been trading near the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel in which it has been moving since October 2023. The latest point was set at 67.63 dollars per barrel. Further movement will be shaped by geopolitical factors. Bulls may attempt to test the 72.70 resistance zone with targets at 76.15 and 77.75. If the news background favours bears, their nearest target will be the 66.00 area, followed by 65.00 and the 62.75-63.50 zone.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the trading week at 4,968 dollars per ounce, maintaining a wide trading range and attempting to recover after the sharp decline two weeks earlier. The overall picture, both fundamental and technical, remains bullish, with targets at 5,180 and 5,450.
However, another correction towards the medium-term ascending support in the 4,680-4,700 area cannot be ruled out. A confident breakout below 4,680 would cancel the bullish scenario and indicate the development of a deeper correction towards 4,200-4,350.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
In the upcoming week in the US, the key event will be the publication on 11 February of the January labour market report, postponed due to the government shutdown. On Friday, market attention will also be focused on inflation data (CPI for January). In Europe, the focus will shift to macroeconomic statistics for Q4 2025. In commodity markets, a separate driver will be the monthly OPEC report (MOMR) on 11 February.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – moderately bullish as long as the price holds above 1.1775. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 75,500-80,000. Brent – cautiously bearish while quotes remain below 70.50. XAU/USD – bullish while prices hold above 4,680-4,700.
