Video: Fed Leaves Dollar To Its Own Devices, Euro Tension Serious (based on dailyfx article)
EURUSD was teed up for the Fed. All they had to do was given enough clarity on a hawkish or dovish lean to break a tight wedge. Instead, we trickled through. This doesn't fit the bill of a break as there is little conviction to follow with momentum on the other side of the boundary. In the FOMC event this past session, the policy authority tried to balance its decisions and views such that there was little for speculators to trip on. Where there was some very clear concern/interest for the medium-term view though, investors decided to fall back on complacency...that may not end well. Outside of timing rates, UK data has been sending the Pound soaring, New Zealand event risk has driven the Kiwi Dollar lower, and the pressure on the Euro as the Greek drama drags on is beyond any other current fundamental risk. We discuss all of this in today's Trading Video.
BNP Paribas - 'What USD Bulls Need Post-FOMC?' (based on efxnews article)
The Fed’s June statement and press conference failed to provide a catalyst for renewed USD gains and the currency has weakened in the aftermath of the meeting, notes BNP Paribas.
"Market participants seemed to focus on the shift lower in the Fed’s
projection for the Fed funds rate, with the average “dot” for end 2015
falling to 57bp from 77bp. In her press conference, Chair Yellen noted
that the conditions for justifying policy tightening were not yet in
place and that, once tightening began, the pace of hikes would be very
gradual," BNPP adds.
"However, we would emphasize that, according to the
projections, a majority of FOMC members continue to anticipate at least
two rate hikes before the end of 2015," BNPP argues.
"Moreover, the message from the Fed is clearly one of data
dependency—if data continues to improve over the summer, markets will be
forced to bring forward pricing for Fed hikes closer to our September
forecast for lift-off," BNPP projects.
Trading tNews Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
However, subdued input costs paired with the persistent slack in the
real economy may continue to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI
print may generate a further near-term advance in EUR/USD as market
participants push back for the Fed liftoff.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Rebounds 0.1% or Greater
EURUSD M5: 140 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index news event:
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.18
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 29 pips price range movement by USD - CPI news event
EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.18
EURUSD M5: 38 pips price range movement by USD - CPI news event
USDJPY, M5, 2015.06.18
USDJPY M5: 30 pips price range movement by USD - CPI news event
Did it BREAK higher and fail, or are we going back above the old ceiling (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD broke above the ceiling at the 1.1379-86 area. The move above
spent 8 hours above. Over the last two hours the price has moved back
below that ceiling. The pair has been consolidating over 7 or so days
until the extension higher today. The move back below the ceiling is a
disappointment. Is that it? IS that all the market could do? Was that
your best shot?
Trading Video: Beware a Market This Blase on Greece, Risk, Fed (based on dailyfx article)
The financial markets seem tranquil in the face of a storm of troubling
fundamental developments. Complacency does not stretch forever however,
especially as the threats grow increasingly acute and near. The list of
threats to our seemingly stable system are the kinds that would look
like 'obvious' triggers for catastrophe in a post mortem of a market
collapse or general financial crisis. The implications of the Fed
possibly raising rates in September to cut into already razor thin
returns, a Greek exit sparked by a banking system liquidity crunch, or
an elemental speculative slump guided by excess in regions like China
all carry the right level of influence. Yet, despite all three of this
threats swelling these past 48 hours, there are no casualties yet...but
that may be a matter of time rather than circumstance. We take a look at
the market with a particular view of Dollar, Euro and risk in today's Trading Video.
AUDIO - The Pulse of Indian Markets with Vishal Subandh
Merlin welcomes Online Trading Academy instructor Vishal Subandh
to the show for an update on what is happening in the Indian Markets.
Vishal shares with viewers several trade setups for the Nifty, Bank
Nifty and the USDINR. The topic also looks at other strong & weak
sectors in India as well as a great look at market correlation.
Forex Weekly Outlook June 22-26 (based on forexcrunch article)
US Existing Home Sales, Jerome Powell’s speech, US Durable Goods Orders, German Ifo Business Climate, US Final GDP, US Unemployment Claims are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way.
Last week U.S. Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting concluded with a decision to maintain current monetary policy. However, Fed Chair Yellen stated the Federal Reserve may increase rates by as much as 2% until the end of next year, with gradual hikes in between, if “more decisive evidence” arrives from the US labor market. At the same time, the Fed lowered their projections of growth this year, to a range between 1.8% and 2.0%, from the 2.3% to 2.7% rise they predicted in March. Will we see stronger US data in the coming months?
US Week Ahead: GDP, PCE, Durable Goods, UMich Sent, Housing (based on efxnews article)
Existing home sales likely rose a solid 4.4% to 5.26 million units in May. May
existing (previously-owned) home sales are expected to post a solid
4.4% gain to 5.26 million units, more than reversing the April dip.
Pending sales of existing homes, a leading indicator, have seen a steep
upward trajectory since January and touched a post-recession high in
Durable goods orders likely slipped 0.2% in May while ex-transportation orders likely rose 0.6%.
We expect durable goods orders to fall 0.2% while ex-transportation
orders likely bounced back with a 0.6% increase. Non-defense aircraft
orders likely weighed in May as Boeing reported only 11 new aircraft
orders, down from 37 in April.
May new home sales are expected to rise 1.1% to a 523K unit annual rate. New
home sales likely saw continued growth in May, rising 1.1% to 523K
units. Sales in April jumped 6.8% led by a surge in the Midwest. We look
for sales to increase on balance in May, albeit at a softer pace as the
Midwest region likely retracted a touch.
In its third and final release, Q1 GDP growth likely saw an upward revision to -0.1% from -0.7%.
We look for an upward revision to Q1 real GDP growth (-0.1% vs. -0.7%),
reflecting revisions to March trade data that imply less of a decline
in net exports.
The May headline PCE price index likely rose 0.4% on the month with the core index rising 0.1%. As
a result, annual PCE inflation likely firmed to 0.2% YoY while core
inflation was stable at 1.2% YoY. The May headline PCE price index
likely rose 0.4% on the month while the core index is expected to rise
0.1%. Both match the monthly increases in the May CPI. In the May CPI
report, energy prices boosted consumer prices with the gasoline index
rising 10%, while food prices remained weak with a flat print.
Personal nominal income likely rose 0.5% in May while spending likely picked up with a 0.6% increase. May
nominal income likely rose 0.5%, slightly firmer than the 0.4% increase
in April. Earnings and hours posted strong gains in May, with average
hourly earnings and the aggregate workweek both rising 0.3%.
The final University of Michigan (UofM) consumer sentiment index likely confirmed a rebound in June to 94.6 from 90.7 in May. June
UofM consumer sentiment likely confirmed its preliminary print of 94.6,
up from 90.7 in May. A June rebound in sentiment will be most welcome
as the weak May reading marked the lowest level since November 2014. Gas
prices hardly moved since the preliminary survey release, standing at
$2.80/gal on average at the time of writing. After a volatile few weeks,
stock prices also have rebounded from their June lows.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2014
Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.10 11:15
06: DURABLE GOODS
This is the 6th video in a series on economic reports created for all
markets, or for those who simply have an interest in economics. In this
lesson we cover the Durable Goods report.
Durable Goods Orders (DGO) is an
indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable
goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture,
This indicator is important for the
market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the
current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the
increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of
consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this
indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to
growth of the national currency.
USDJPY M5 : 47 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
EURUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event :
BNP Paribas - 'We remain USD bulls', or 'fade EUR/USD rally on any Greek resolution' (based on efxnews article)
"Despite a dovish market reaction to this week’s FOMC statement, the
Fed’s message remains focused on data dependency, and our economists
continue to believe that conditions will be met for policy tightening to
start in September. Accordingly, markets should remain focused on upcoming US economic releases.
In the week ahead, a rebound in May core durable goods
orders would be encouraging after a downward revision to April data,
while the personal income and spending report should echo the
improvement in retail sales data. We remain USD bulls but
recommend positioning through option structures with limited upside
potential given the Fed’s sensitivity to dollar strength.
The coming days may be the final opportunity for some sort of Greek deal
to be agreed ahead of the end-June deadline. Reading EUR moves around
Greek headlines remains complicated by the EUR’s funding currency
status. Our preference is still to fade any rallies on a Greek
‘resolution’ as we believe it would ultimately lead to investors
regaining appetite for shorting the EUR against pro-risk currencies."