Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 09 – 13, 2026

As we warned earlier, the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the strikes by the United States and Israel on targets in Iran led to a sharp reaction in commodity markets at the beginning of the week. Oil and gold opened with an upward gap, while the dollar strengthened as a safe-haven asset. However, closer to the end of the week part of these movements was corrected, and the key assets once again entered a phase of balance between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic expectations.

The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) published on March 02 in the United States and the EU countries confirmed the preservation of moderate economic activity. Inflation data (CPI) in Europe did not give markets a clear signal, while the US labour market report generally confirmed the resilience of the American economy.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair remained under steady pressure from the dollar throughout the week and confidently broke the 1.1765 support already at the beginning of the week. The final note sounded at 1.1616. The nearest support is 1.1580, the next one is 1.1530. If pressure on the euro continues, a breakout of this level may open the way to 1.1470-1.1490 and 1.1390. In case of recovery in risk demand and weakening of the dollar, a correction towards 1.1700 and further to the area of 1.1765-1.1830 is possible. A stronger rise may return quotes to the resistance at 1.1925.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin showed strong growth at the beginning of the week from 65,000 to 74,130. However, it failed to consolidate at the new local highs, and the BTC/USD pair returned to the area of 68,000. Thus, the market still remains in a range structure, and the zone of 71,000-72,260 keeps the role of key resistance. A breakout of this range will open the way to 75,500-80,000, with the next target for bulls remaining a return to the corridor of 85,000-90,000. If risk-off sentiment strengthens, the nearest support will be the area of 65,000-65,600, followed by 62,415-63,000. A breakout of this level will open the way to 59,785. The medium-term targets for bears remain at 54,000 and 49,000.

🛢 Brent Oil

Oil became the main beneficiary of the sharp geopolitical escalation. Against the background of strikes on Iran and risks to supply from the region, Brent quotes rose sharply at the beginning of the week and reached 92.00 dollars per barrel. This became the strongest weekly movement in several years. By the end of the week the price corrected slightly – to 90.80. In the short term, the key resistance zone remains the area of 91.50-92.00. At the same time, if tensions persist, a rise above 100.00 cannot be ruled out. If the situation stabilises, a correction towards the levels of 84.25 and 80.50 is possible, and a deeper correction – to 76.50.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Against the background of rising geopolitical risks and demand for safe-haven assets, XAU/USD quotes reached 5,420 dollars per ounce. At the same time, after the sharp rise part of the movement was corrected, and gold finished the week at 5,174, within the range of 5,120-5,250. The bullish structure remains, with the nearest targets at 5,450 and 5,595. At the same time, the probability of further correction is increasing. The nearest support is located in the zone of 5,050-5,120, followed by 4,950-5,000 and 4,840-4,875.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

Next week, on March 11, inflation data (CPI) will be released in the United States and Germany. On March 13, market attention will also be focused on inflation expectations (Core PCE Price Index) and US GDP indicators (Q3 2025).

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 1.1765. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 72,260. Brent – bullish while prices hold above 84.25. XAU/USD – bullish while prices hold above 5,050-5,120.