Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 02 - 06, 2026
Last week can be described as crazy. Our forecast for the key trends turned out to be 100% accurate. However, we did not expect such a surge in abnormal volatility. Markets reacted in panic to the escalation of sanctions rhetoric and harsh steps by the United States toward Iran. This undermined confidence in the US dollar and triggered a capital outflow into gold and commodities. In the second half of the week, the dollar partially recovered amid profit-taking and rising demand for liquidity, gold moved into correction, while oil held near its highs due to persistent risks of supply disruptions.
💶 EUR/USD
Since the summer of 2025, EUR/USD has been moving within the 1.1470-1.1830 range. Last week, bulls pushed the pair beyond this channel. After surging by 250 points, the pair reached 1.2083 and then returned almost to where it started, back to the 1.1850 level. At the same time, moving averages continue to indicate a bullish medium-term trend. Relying on support at 1.1820-1.1830, EUR/USD may attempt a new upward push. The nearest resistance is at 1.1900, followed by 1.1975, with the target being consolidation in the 1.2000-1.2100 zone. A breakout below the 1.1820-1.1830 support would cancel the bullish scenario and could lead to a decline toward the 1.1700 area, with the next support at 1.1580-1.1620.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
The panic-driven exit of investors from risk assets also affected bitcoin. On Friday, January 30, BTC/USD fell to its November 2025 lows, reaching a bottom at 80,944. On Saturday, it is trading around 83,000. During the upcoming week, BTC/USD may attempt to form a corrective move toward the 84,150-84,600 area, with the next targets at 86,500-87,700 and 90,500-91,000. A confident breakout above 91,000 would cancel the negative scenario and open the way for growth toward 95,000. From the 84,600 and 86,500 levels, a rebound downward toward 80,540 is possible, with a potential target near 74,500.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil ended the week near the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel in which it has been moving since October 2023. The latest level was marked at $69.72 per barrel. Further movement will depend on the degree of tension in relations between the United States and Iran. In the event of further escalation, Brent may attempt to develop a bullish correction and test the 72.70 resistance area, with targets at 76.15 and 77.75. If prices rebound downward from the upper boundary of the descending channel, the nearest target will be the 66.00 area, followed by 65.00 and 63.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Such moves have never been seen in the gold market before - volatility reached nearly 20% within just a few days. First, the price surged to $5,595 per ounce and then collapsed to 4,483, after which it stabilised at 4,891. A week ago, we warned about a possible bull trap. The trap did indeed work, but only when the price approached not 5,000, but 5,600. This week, XAU/USD may continue its downward correction and attempt to test the 4,535-4,675 area, with the next strong support at 4,200-4,350. A breakout below this zone would cancel the bullish scenario and indicate a deeper correction toward $3,350. The nearest resistance is around 5,000, followed by 5,600, while the main target for bulls now stands at 6,000.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
In the coming week, the key event in the United States will be the publication of the labour market report, as well as data on business activity and inflation expectations. In Europe, the focus will shift to PMI figures and comments from ECB representatives. In commodity markets, geopolitical factors continue to play a role, maintaining heightened price sensitivity to any new signals.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD - cautiously bullish while the price holds above 1.1830. BTC/USD - neutral-to-bearish while the price remains below 90,500-91,000. Brent - cautiously bearish while prices stay below 72.70. XAU/USD - preservation of the bullish structure while gold remains above 4,535-4,675.
For traders, the result matters, not just the trading process itself 📊💡
You can see how to improve your results with the help of rebates and cashback here 👇
