Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 16 – 20, 2026
On the past week, in the United States the focus was on the January labour market report, the publication of which had been postponed earlier. The data confirmed the resilience of employment and the absence of a sharp cooling in the economy, which supported cautious expectations of a Fed rate cut. Additional influence came from inflation statistics: January CPI did not give the market a clear signal for rapid policy easing, maintaining tension in yields and the currency segment. In Europe, macroeconomic statistics for Q4 2025 overall indicated weak but positive growth without signs of acceleration, while in commodity markets the OPEC report (MOMR) became a separate driver for oil, leaving quotations in a zone of heightened sensitivity to the balance of supply and demand. Overall, the week showed economic resilience amid persistent inflationary pressure, which kept markets in a mode of elevated volatility without forming a new sustainable trend.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair finished the week at 1.1868. Despite slight growth, the bullish momentum remains weak, and the pair is still in a consolidation phase. Next week a new attempt to break through resistance at 1.1925 is possible. In case of success this will open the way to 1.2000 and 1.2080. A decline to support in the 1.1775-1.1800 zone cannot be excluded either. If it does not hold, this may lead to a fall to the 1.1700 area, the next support is in the 1.1580-1.1620 zone, followed by 1.1470-1.1500.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Starting from 07 February BTC/USD has been moving in a narrow channel 65,100-72,260 along the Pivot Point 70,000, which confirms the absence of obvious drivers. When they appear, a confident breakout of the channel in either direction may strengthen the local momentum and lead either to growth to the 75,000-80,000 zone, or to a fall to 63,000 and further – to support at 59,800. More distant targets: for the bulls – a return to the 85,000-90,000 corridor, for the bears – 54,000 and 49,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
For the third week in a row Brent oil has been trading near the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel, in which it has been moving since October 2023. The latest point this time was set at 67.18 dollars per barrel. A number of experts believe that recovery attempts are corrective in nature. Bulls may try to retest the 70.45 resistance zone with a target of 72.60-72.75. A news background favourable for bears may lead to a return of Brent to the centre of the long-term channel. Supports 66.30, 65.00 and 62.70.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at 5,043 dollars per ounce. Attempts to break above the 5,090-5,120 resistance zone have not yet been successful. Despite the fact that the fundamental structure remains bullish, a downward correction cannot be excluded. The nearest support – 4,870, the next – at the line of medium-term ascending support in the 4,770-4,800 area. Its breakout may lead to a deeper correction to 4,400-4,530. For bulls the targets are 5,180, 5,450 and 6,000.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
On the upcoming week, on 17 February preliminary data on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and the Eurozone will be published. In the United States, on 18 February the Leading Economic Indicators index and the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released, the API report on US crude oil inventories will also be published. On Thursday, 19 February, trade balance data and the official EIA oil inventory report in the United States are expected. On Friday the market’s attention will be focused on the preliminary estimate of US GDP for Q4, as well as on statistics on personal income and spending and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – moderately bullish while the price holds above 1.1775. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish while the price is below 75,500-80,000. Brent – bearish while quotations are below 70.45. XAU/USD – bullish while prices hold above 4,770-4,800.
