Bullion Trend Follower
- Experts
- Version: 1.21
- Activations: 10
Bullion Trend Follower - trend following on gold and silver.
No grid, no martingale, no averaging down, hard SL on every trade.
Symbol: XAUUSD and XAGUSD
Timeframe: H4 (Balanced, the standard mode)
Risk per trade: 0.5% of equity, set as a percentage, capped at 2.0% in code
Impressive backtests rarely survive a live account. This page is the other way
round: the weak numbers are here on purpose.
One rule on XAUUSD and XAGUSD: breakouts of a 30-bar Donchian channel, managed
by an ATR trailing stop that cuts losses early and lets trends run. One position
per symbol.
== BACKTEST RESULTS ==
April 2006 - August 2026 (20 years 4 months), XAUUSD + XAGUSD, Balanced mode,
0.5% risk, compounded on one account.
Tick model: Model 1 (ticks generated from M1 bars).
111 trades a year (2,261 total). CAGR 7.6%
Profit factor 1.30. Win rate 36.9%. Average win / loss 2.22
Maximum drawdown 15.6% at 0.5% risk, 29.0% at 1.0% risk
Longest losing streak 15. Longest flat period 804 days
Positive in 18 of 21 years. Worst year 2018, -11.6%
Most individual trades lose money; profit comes from a few large trends. Real
ticks (Model 4) cover only August 2024 - August 2026, about 2 years - our broker
has no earlier tick history. That window was a metals bull market: reference
only, never our headline. We do not write "20 years verified on real ticks".
== HOW WE TRIED TO BREAK IT ==
Identical settings on 28 instruments, nothing tuned. Only gold and silver passed
our profit-factor threshold; twelve lost money. Full table, failures included:
screenshot 4. The two symbols are a post-hoc selection, picked after the
results.
We also ran our entries against 2,000 randomised ones through the same exit
rule. We do not claim the entry timing has a statistical edge - our testing did
not demonstrate one. What we sell is the exit discipline and the risk controls,
as code; the test is in the included risk disclosure.
== RISK PER TRADE ==
0.5% of account equity per trade across both symbols: the figure in the .set
files, the figure this page is measured at, and the figure on our own account.
The hard ceiling in the code is 2.0%.
Nothing here is a fixed lot. Every order is sized from your equity and the
distance to the initial stop - ATR(14) x 2.0 - so the amount at risk stays the
percentage you chose while the account grows and volatility changes. When the
smallest lot your broker allows would exceed that percentage, the EA declines
the trade rather than round the risk up.
That one number sets the scale of everything else here: 15.6% maximum drawdown
at 0.5% risk, 29.0% at 1.0%, 50.1% at 2.0%.
== WHAT IS BUILT IN ==
A hard stop loss on every position, sent with the order and verified afterwards;
if the stop cannot be placed, the position is closed. Daily loss and daily
profit limits - these watch this EA's own trades on its own symbols, not your
account as a whole. Spread protection measured as a percentage of the stop
distance. An optional weekend close. A news filter that pauses new entries
around scheduled releases. A 12-line info panel that names the reason for every
signal it declines, including an account too small to size the trade. The EA
refuses to start with an unsafe ATR multiple.
== BEFORE YOU BUY ==
Recommended account: 5,000,000 JPY (about 33,000 USD) or more for two symbols at
0.5% risk. The EA skips a trade rather than exceed your risk setting: a
1,000,000 JPY account misses about half the signals - by design, not a fault
(screenshot 11).
MetaTrader 5, a broker offering both metals, continuous uptime. XAUUSD and
XAGUSD are recommendations, not restrictions: MQL5 forbids symbol locks, so the
EA runs anywhere and flags [UNTESTED SYMBOL] off tested ground. The news filter
needs the MT5 economic calendar, which the Strategy Tester cannot reach, so no
backtest figure here includes it.
We run this on our own live account with the shipped preset since 24 August
2026, with no track record to show yet. An MQL5 live signal is being prepared
and will be linked here once it has a meaningful history; until then every
number here is backtest data.
== WEAKNESSES ==
Range-bound and trendless markets are where this method suffers; silver is the
heavier symbol. Not for you if you want fast gains, daily trades, a high win
rate, or would switch the EA off mid-drawdown.
Mode comparison: screenshot 12. Detailed results, the full validation and every
stated limit ship in the user guide and risk disclosure - nothing is hidden, it
just does not fit here.
== RISK DISCLOSURE ==
Trading leveraged instruments carries a substantial risk of loss. Past results
do not indicate future results, and every figure on this page is backtest data,
not a live track record.
What the tested history already contains, at the 0.5% risk setting: a maximum
equity drawdown of 15.6%, a run of 15 losing trades, 804 days between one equity
high and the next, and a worst calendar year of -11.6%. A future run can be
worse than any of these. Use money you can afford to lose, and read the risk
disclosure document included with the EA before you switch it on.
== PRICE ==
99 USD at launch, rising every 10 copies sold, stopping at 399 USD. Rental 39
USD / month, 79 USD / 3 months. We publish the ladder, not a countdown. If the
trade-offs above are ones you can live with, this is the cheapest this product
will ever be.
Included: EA, user guide (EN/JA), risk disclosure, .set files. Free updates.
Questions before buying: use the comments or a private message.
After purchase, send us a private message here on MQL5 to receive the
recommended .set files for each mode and to be told when a new version is
published.
