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QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability

49 USD

Published: 14 August 2026

Current version: 2.20

QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability

Indicators
Rafael Barreto Haddad
Rafael Barreto Haddad
Rafael Haddad → QuantMatrix → quantitative trading research at Quantitative Trading Systems Researcher

Brazil

1901
I am the creator of the QuantMatrix Research Series for MetaTrader 5.
My work focuses on quantitative trading systems, adaptive Expert Advisors and market-analysis tools built around historical evidence, strategy validation and continuous model evaluation.
Version: 2.20
Updated: 20 August 2026
Activations: 5

QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability

QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability is a statistical indicator for MetaTrader 5 that compares the current price movement with similar movements found in the historical data of the selected symbol and timeframe.

Price movements are normalized using Average True Range (ATR). This allows movements from different historical periods to be compared relative to the volatility present at each period.

The indicator searches the configured historical sample for movements within the selected similarity tolerance.

For the historical cases identified as similar, the indicator evaluates price behavior over a configurable number of subsequent bars.

The results are classified into three groups:

Continuation
Reversal
Unresolved

Continuation means that the subsequent historical movement continued in the same direction as the analyzed movement.

Reversal means that the subsequent historical movement moved in the opposite direction.

Unresolved represents cases where the subsequent movement remained within the configured ATR outcome threshold.

The indicator displays the evolution of these historical frequencies in a dedicated subwindow.

Main information displayed

Current move expressed in ATR
Current movement direction
Number of similar historical cases
Continuation percentage
Reversal percentage
Unresolved percentage
Historical sample quality
Configured forward analysis period
Similarity tolerance
Historical Continuation, Reversal and Unresolved curves

The price chart can also display compact historical markers when Continuation or Reversal reaches the configured dominance threshold.

Green markers represent historical Continuation dominance.

Red markers represent historical Reversal dominance.

The percentage shown beside each marker is the historical frequency calculated by the indicator for that bar.

Features

ATR-normalized historical movement comparison
Configurable historical lookback
Configurable similarity tolerance
Configurable forward analysis period
Configurable outcome threshold
Continuation frequency
Reversal frequency
Unresolved frequency
Historical sample count
Sample quality classification
Dedicated statistical subwindow
Historical probability-frequency curves
Compact chart markers
Automatic symbol detection
Automatic timeframe detection
Does not open, modify or close trades

QuantMatrix Research Series

QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability is part of the QuantMatrix series of quantitative market analysis tools developed by Rafael Haddad.

The percentages displayed by the indicator are frequencies calculated from the selected historical sample and parameters. They are not guaranteed probabilities of future market behavior and do not guarantee trading results.

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Screenshot #1 QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability

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QuantMatrix Prism Structure is a MetaTrader 5 indicator for visual analysis of market structure. It identifies confirmed swing highs and swing lows and displays structural information directly on the chart. The indicator can display higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows, structure changes, fair value gap areas and ATR based information. A chart panel summarizes the current structure state, recent structural events and relevant market information. The indicator is intended for m

49 USD

QuantMatrix Volume Depth is a MetaTrader 5 indicator for visual analysis of market activity across different price levels. The indicator builds a horizontal profile across the analyzed price range and shows where trading activity has been concentrated. It displays the Point of Control, Value Area High, Value Area Low and the distribution of activity across multiple price levels. The indicator can use real volume when it is available from the symbol. When real volume is not available, tick vol

49 USD

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QuantMatrix Historical Move Probability

Rafael Barreto Haddad