Signal Verdict
- Indicators
- Version: 1.0
- Activations: 5
Most traders never actually find out whether the signal they follow makes
money. Signal Verdict answers that on your own chart. It replays your entry
rule across history, opens and closes a simulated position for every signal,
and reports what really came out: win rate, expectancy in R, profit factor,
drawdown, and how often each take profit was reached.
It is not limited to its own signals. Signal Verdict can read the buffers of
any indicator installed on your terminal, so the arrows you are already
trading can finally be measured instead of trusted.
How It Works
A signal is only accepted once its bar has closed, and the simulated entry is
taken at the open of the following bar. Nothing in the calculation can see a
price that had not printed yet, so the result is non-repainting and the
history does not change under you.
When a single bar touches both a target and the stop, that bar alone cannot
say which came first. Signal Verdict drops into M1 data for exactly those
bars and finds the real order. Where M1 history is not available it falls
back to the pessimistic reading, assuming the stop came first, and the
dashboard tells you how many bars were settled each way.
Signal Sources
Four generators are built in: moving average cross with EMA, SMA, SMMA or
LWMA, RSI level cross, MACD signal cross, and Stochastic cross.
The fifth source is any other indicator on your terminal, read through
iCustom. You choose which buffer carries the buy signal and which carries
the sell signal, and how the value should be interpreted: a plotted arrow
appearing, a cross through zero, one buffer crossing another, or a sign
flip. Leaving the parameter count at zero runs that indicator on its own
default settings, which is the setup that always works.
Targets And Exits
Three take profit steps, each with its own distance and its own share of the
position, so a runner can be left open after the first partials are taken.
One stop loss, with optional move to breakeven after the first target and an
optional ATR trailing stop. Distances are set in ATR multiples, pips or
points. Positions can also close on an opposite signal.
Costs are included rather than ignored. The spread actually recorded on each
historical bar is charged to the trade, and commission and slippage can be
added on top.
What The Dashboard Reports
Trades, win rate, profit factor and expectancy in R. Net result, account
equity as a percentage, maximum drawdown, recovery factor, Sharpe ratio and
average holding time. Hit rate for each take profit step and the share of
trades stopped out, split by long and short.
Below the numbers, an equity curve and a result by hour of day chart, both
drawn as real columns. Results are expressed in R and in percent of account
rather than in ticks, so a run on gold can be compared directly with a run on
a currency pair.
The panel states the exact window it analysed, with dates and bar count, so
two runs are never compared by accident. The window is chosen in days, from
three days to three months or all available history, not in bars, because a
bar count means a different stretch of time on every timeframe.
Filters, Alerts And Export
Signals can be filtered by volatility, by session hours and by day of the
week. Alerts can fire when a new signal closes and when a simulated trade
closes, through popup, push notification, email or sound. The full trade list
can be written to CSV for checking in a spreadsheet.
Email alerts are sent by the terminal, not by the indicator, so they require
Tools, Options, Email to be configured first. Popup and push need no setup.
Usage
Attach it to the chart and timeframe you actually trade. Set the signal
source, then set the target and stop distances to the ones you use. Read the
expectancy first: a positive expectancy in R is what makes a rule worth
trading, and a high win rate alone does not.
Use the take profit hit rates to decide where your targets belong, and the
result by hour chart to find the sessions the rule works in. Then narrow the
window to one month to check the rule is still behaving the way it did.
Honest Limits
This is an analysis tool. It does not place, modify or close orders.
The result is a simulation of what your chart shows, and past behaviour is
not a promise about future behaviour. Intrabar accuracy depends on your
broker keeping M1 history for the period being tested, and the panel says
plainly when that history was missing.
Compatibility
Compatibility
MetaTrader 5, all symbols, all timeframes. Works on any account type.
Support
For questions and support, please use the comments section of this product
page or contact the author through the MQL5 messaging system.
