Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 77

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Just something about 'Where the price will go to' in the beginning of January 2014

GBPUSD

All developing/forming patterns are showing downtrend in the beginning of January (and in February too).

MN timeframe :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, MN1, 2013.12.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_28754.png

GBPUSD, MN1, 2013.12.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



D1 timeframe :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.12.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_8363.png

GBPUSD, D1, 2013.12.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



H8 timeframe :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H8, 2013.12.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_65524.png

GBPUSD, H8, 2013.12.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



H4 timeframe :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H4, 2013.12.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_48243.png

GBPUSD, H4, 2013.12.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


H1 timeframe :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.12.27

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_61504.png

GBPUSD, H1, 2013.12.27, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  
The story about 'Where the price will go to' in the beginning of January 2014


Gold/XAUUSD

All short-term developing/forming patterns are showing downtrend (M6 - H8 timeframes) but we may see the bullish trend for long term situation (timeframes started with H12 to MN1). Thus, we may see downtrend immediate after News Year for example, but it will be uptrend in general for long term situation (end of January, February and so on).

Trades who invested the money in gold - may have good profit in 2014, and the trades who are still keeping their short positions - they will have possibility to close it with profit in the beginning of 2014.

==========

M10 timeframe - forming pattern '3-drives' for downtrend :



H8 timeframe - forming pattern 'Retrecement' for downtrend :



W1 timeframe : forming 'Retracement' for uptrend :



MN1 timeframe : forming 'Retracement' pattern for uptrend:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

'Where the price will go to' in the beginning of January 2014

Just about EURUSD

Timeframes up to M30 timeframe - uptrend, starting from H1 till MN1 - downtrend.

=======

Why timeframes are important in our case? Well ... MN1 is monthly timeframe. One bar in MN1 timeframe = one month. Means : new bar is open in 1st of January 2014 and close in 1st of February ... so - if MN1 timeframe is showing uptrend - it is long story for at least 3 months or half a year (long term situation). M30 timeframe? One bar in M30 timeframe = 30 minutes. So, if we are having forming pattern on this timeframe - this pattern may be confirmed for half a day for example.

What is confirmation for forming pattern? Example with formed/developed pattern (for EURUSD) - Gartney 5-0 for uptrend :

Do you see pattern? right ... and do you see how the price went to uptrend after this pattern? it is confirmation - this pattern was formed (because it was confirmed) - we expected uptrend and we see - real uptrend. It is too late to open buy trade as everything was done here. This is formed/developed pattern.

next example with forming pattern :


We see that this pattern (Retracement) is showing downtrend. But it is forming pattern as we do not have confirmation for this downtrend. When we see this confirmation so it will be too late to open sell trade sorry ... that is why I am analysing forming patterns.

Thus, we may have uptrend in the very beginning of January 2014 and downtrend in general for this pair for at leats half a year.

=======

BUT!

It was technical analysis only. And technical analysis is providing on the way as "if the price/resistance/support/indicator will go to ... it will be upward ... otherwise - downtrend ...".

Why we are providing technical analysis in so approximate way? because technical analysis is not whole the story ... The whole analysis = technical analysis + fundamental analysis.

What is fundamental analysis? This is news events (economic calendar in MT5). Nut fundamental news events are very unpredictable by actual data ...

That is why we can not tell exactly with high probability about 'Where the price will go to' in the beginning of January 2014

That's all news

Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Chart Constants / Chart Timeframes
Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Chart Constants / Chart Timeframes
  • www.mql5.com
Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Chart Constants / Chart Timeframes - Documentation on MQL5
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Just about Gold (XAUUSD).

Chinkou Span line came to be very close to historical price on D1 timeframe price to be ready for good breakout. But the price is still below Senkou Span A line (which is the border between primary bullish and primary bearish on the chart). So, I expect tha rally may be continuing, and the price may be stopped near 1275.83 resistance or 1298.43 resistance level. Otherwise - we may see ranging market condition within primary bearish. Explanation is on the image :



Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines
Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines
  • www.mql5.com
Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Indicator Constants / Indicators Lines - Documentation on MQL5
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.03 11:38

2014-01-03 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

UK PMI - Construction better than expected 62.1

UK PMI - Construction released at 62.1 better than expected.  The potential for this event to affect exchange rates is High.  Market impact primarily affects GBP currency pairs although currency correlations may impact other currencies as well.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.03

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by GBP - Construction PMI news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.03.20 10:40

Market Condition Evaluation

story/thread was started from here/different thread

================================

Market condition

  • the theory with examples (primary trend, secondary trend) - read staring from this post till this one
  • Summary about market condition theory is on this post 

================================ 

3 Stoch MaFibo trading system for M5 and M1 timeframe 

================================  

PriceChannel ColorPar Ichi system.

 

================================ 

MaksiGen trading system 

================================ 

 Merrill's patterns are on this page.

 

================================

Divergence - how to use, explanation and where to read about.

  

================================

Scalp_net trading system

  • template/indicators and how to use are on this comment.

  • scalp_net_v132_tf EA is on this post with optimization results/settings for EURUSD M5 timeframe
     
  • possible settings #1 for this EA for EURUSD M5 timeframe with backtesting results is on this post.
     

================================  

MTF systems 

more to follow ... 


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

USDJPY Technical Analysis 23.06 - 30.06 : Rally Finishing to Ranging

newdigital, 2013.06.27 12:07

Well ... what I am explaining here by text and charts - it is understandable for traders. But there are traders and coders on the forum. And I think we all know that they are using different "forex english" in some cases. So, I am just translating some terms/words I am using for technical Ichimoku analysis onto "coding english" language :) :

  1. Tenkan Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 9 trading days
  2. Kijun Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 26 trading days.
  3. Senkou Span A - the average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 days ahead. (Tenkan Sen + Kijun Sen) / 2 plotted 26 days ahead
  4. Senkou Span B - the average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 days, plotted 26 days ahead. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 52 trading days plotted 26 days ahead.
  5. Chikou Span - the closing price plotted 26 days behind.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

==================

Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross
The Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen (Turning line) crosses the Kijun Sen (Standard line).

A bullish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen

  • A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo.
  • A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo.
  • A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo.
A bearish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen
  • A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo.
  • A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo.
  • A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo.

Kijun Sen Cross
The Kijun Sen Cross signal occurs when the price crosses the Kijun Sen (Standard line).

A bullish signal occurs when the price crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen

  • A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo.
  • A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo.
  • A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo.
A bearish signal occurs when the price crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen
  • A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo.
  • A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo.
  • A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo.

==================

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

=========

Besides, there are many signals of Ichimoku indicator to open the trades. I know about 6 signals (but it is much more signals in combination with each other):

  • Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross - very weak signal but it is coming as the first one ... but it may be a lot of false signals
  • price crossing Kijun Sen - more strong signal
  • price crossing Sinkou Span A line (Kumo Breakout)
  • price crossing Sinkou Span B line (Kumo Breakout)
  • Senkou Span A crossing the Senkou Span B (trend reversal)
  • Chikou Span crossing historical price - it is most strong signal for Ichimoku but it is lagging on timeframes started with H1, and not lagging for lower timeframes.

The combination of all those 6 signals = Ichimoku indicator


=========

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.06 13:35

2014-01-06 09:28 GMT (or 10:28 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

U.K. Service Sector Growth At 6-Month Low; Bright Outlook For 2014

U.K.'s service sector growth unexpectedly eased in December to the lowest level in six months amid weaker increase in new orders, but the rate of expansion remained robust, suggesting that economic growth has likely accelerated in the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, optimism among service providers regarding activity over the next 12 months climbed in December to the highest level in nearly four years.

Results of the latest purchasing managers' survey conducted by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) showed that the activity indicator for the service sector dropped to 58.8 in December from 60 in November, marking the weakest improvement in operating conditions since June.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.06

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 42 pips movement by GBP - Services PMI news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo