Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 81

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

About fundamental news events - we will trade without China for almost whole week

CNY - Chinese banks will be closed in observance of the Spring Festival :

  • Monday, February 3 - Bank Holiday
  • Tuesday, February 4 - Bank Holiday
  • Wednesday, February 5 - Bank Holiday
  • Thursday, February 6 - Bank Holiday

And we will have many high impacted news events for AUDUSD. All of them are here :

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newdigital, 2014.02.02 15:29

AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7 (based on investing.com article)

The Australian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as demand for the greenback remained supported after the Federal Reserve announced plans to further taper its monthly bond-buying program.

Monday, February 3

  • Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
  • In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce data on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, February 4

  • The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
  • The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, February 5

  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, February 6

  • Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. The nation is also to release private sector data on business confidence.
  • The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on the trade balance.

Friday, February 7

  • The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the inflation outlook from the bank’s perspective.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Most important (high impacted for AUDUSD) :

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newdigital, 2014.02.01 17:06

AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)


Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Rate Decision on Tap Domestically, Policy Statement in the Spotlight
  • Impact of US Data on QE Taper Bets, EM-Driven Risk Aversion Also Critical

So, almost whole the week without China ...
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.03 06:13

2013-02-03 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Building Approvals Dip 2.9% In December

The total number of building permits issued in Australia in December was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 16,141 and falling for the third straight month.

That missed forecasts for a contraction of 0.5 percent following the 1.5 percent decline in November.

On a yearly basis, building permits spiked 21.8 percent - also shy of estimates for an increase of 23.4 percent and down from the 22.2 percent surge in the previous month.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.03

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AUDUSD M5 : 19 pips price movement by AUD - Building Approvals news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.03 10:04

2013-02-03 08:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

Spanish Manufacturing Expands On Production, Orders

The Spanish manufacturing sector started 2014 on a positive footing, Markit Economics said Monday.

The seasonally adjusted Markit Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.2 in January from 50.8 in December. Moreover, the improvement in operating conditions in January was the strongest since April 2010.

The rate of growth in manufacturing output accelerated in January and was the fastest in close to three-and-a-half years. Total new business also grew at a sharper pace, with some panellists highlighting the impact of rising new export orders.


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EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.03

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EURUSD M5 : 20 pips price movement by EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI news event

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-03 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] :






Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.04 06:36

2013-02-04 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Cash Target]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia's Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday retained its benchmark cash rate unchanged at 2.5 percent as expected, saying that interest rate stability is the most "prudent course" for monetary policy at present.

In a statement today, Governor Glenn Stevens said that the bank's monetary policy "is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."

"On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates," he noted.

The Reserve Bank Board expects inflation to be somewhat higher than forecast three months ago, but still consistent with the 2-3 percent target over the next two years, Stevens noted.

He also pointed out that the exchange rate had declined further, which, if sustained, would assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.04

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AUDUSD M5 : 112 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Cash Target news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.04, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.04 09:58

2013-02-04 08:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]

  • past data is -107.6K
  • forecast data is -21.3K
  • actual data is 113.1K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

Spanish jobless claims surge by 113,100 in January

The number of unemployed people in Spain rose significantly in January, fuelling concerns over the country’s economic outlook, official data showed on Tuesday.

In a report, Spain’s Employment Ministry said the number of unemployed people increased by a seasonally adjusted 113,100 last month, disappointing expectations for a decline of 21,000. The number of unemployed people fell by 107,600 in December.

Following the release of the data, the euro added to losses against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD inching down 0.13% to trade at 1.3510, compared to 1.3526 ahead of the data.


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EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.04

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EURUSD M5 : 30 pips price movement by EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change news event

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.04, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.06 08:28

2013-02-06 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Retail Sales Gain 0.5% In December

The total value of retail sales in Australia climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - standing at A$22.581 billion.

The headline figure matched forecasts, although it slowed from the 0.7 percent gain in November.

Among the individual components, sales in food retailing gained 2.5 percent, along with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.5 percent) and department stores (0.3 percent).


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newdigital, 2014.02.06 08:32

2013-02-06 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia December Trade Surplus A$468 Million

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$468 million in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That blew away forecasts for a deficit of A$200 million following the upwardly revised surplus of A$83 million in November (originally reported as a deficit of A$118 million).


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.06

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AUDUSD M5 : 49 pips price movement by AUD - Retail Sales and AUD - Trade Balance news events

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.06 14:50

2013-02-06 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -34.56B
  • forecast data is -36.00B
  • actual data is -38.70B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected In December

The U.S. trade deficit widened by more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $38.7 billion in December from a revised $34.6 billion in November. Economists had expected a deficit of $36.0 billion.

The wider than expected trade deficit came as the value of imports edged up by 0.3 percent, while the value of exports dropped by 1.8 percent.


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EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.06

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EURUSD M5 : 106 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event

EURUSD, M5, 2014.02.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCHF, M5, 2014.02.06

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USDCHF M5 : 84 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event

USDCHF, M5, 2014.02.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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XAUUSD, M5, 2014.02.06

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XAUUSD M5 : 6715 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event

XAUUSD, M5, 2014.02.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.07 08:18

013-02-07 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]

FF calendar description :
It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors
that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions

==========

Aussie swings on RBA policy statement

The Australian currency swung from highs to lows on Friday following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy in which the bank reiterated that a sustained period of steady interest rates was necessary.

After shooting up from $0.8942 ahead of the statement to $0.8971 moments after, the currency then plunged 0.40% to trade at $0.8922 as at 1:18am GMT, almost an hour after its release.

"The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 5% since the November Statement in response to economic developments both at home and abroad, according to the bank's statement. This unwound the appreciation over the preceding few months, leaving the currency around 12% lower than it was at the time of the May Statement."

The bank said that, if sustained, lower levels of the exchange rate will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy.

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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.07

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AUDUSD M5 : 27 pips up and 45 pips down by AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.07, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.02.07 15:00

2013-02-07 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

Nation adds 113,000 jobs

  • Jobless rate falls to five-year low
  • Construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining see gains
The nation added a net of 113,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, dropping the unemployment rate of 6.6 percent, lowest in the past five years, the the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says Friday. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point.