Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 84

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newdigital, 2014.03.05 12:26

2013-03-05 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Relail Sales]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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Eurozone Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected In January

Eurozone retail sales grew more-than-expected at the start of the year, recovering strongly from a slump in the previous month, figures from Eurostat showed Wednesday.

Retail sales rose 1.6 percent from December, when they fell 1.3 percent, revised from a 1.6 percent slump. Economists had expected 0.8 percent growth for January.


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EURUSD M5 : 27 pips price movement by EUR - Relail Sales bews event

EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.05, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:12

USDCHF Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)


  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 0.8848-66 (Dec’13 bottom, 23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8776 (Feb 28 low)
  • Resistance: 0.8880 (trend line), 0.8921 (38.2% Fib ret.)


Prices stalled at trend line resistance set from late January after the US Dollar produced its strongest push upward in a month against the Swiss Franc. A break this barrier (now at 0.8880) initially exposes 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8921. Support is in the 0.8848-66 area,marked by the December 2013 closing bottom and the 23.6% level, with a break below that eyeing the February 28 lowat 0.8776.


The pair is trading too close to relevant resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, a short position seems premature absent a defined reversal signal. We will remain flat for now.

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Discussion of article "The Implementation of Automatic Analysis of the Elliott Waves in MQL5"

newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:29

3 Methods to Identify Trend Resumption (based on dailyfx article)

  • Why Focus on Trend Continuation?
  • What Does A Common Correction Look Like?
  • How to Identify the End of a Correction & Resumption of Trend?

Traders often love to trade a good story. Who blame them? Few things are as exciting as a story that makes sense and price action that mathes the story as you collect the pips.

Why Focus on Trend Continuation

Trend continuation is where a majority of trend traders enter trades and make money. However trends correct or end. This even develops with trends that come with great stories.

However, trends come to an end. Even if the trend will eventually resume, which we hope it does, trends will at least temporarily correct as profits are taken. This is where the uncomfortable discipline of patience becomes a must as trend traders wait out the correction before the trend resumes.

What Do Common Corrections Look Like?

Corrections can take many forms. The most common correction is known as a 3-wave correction or zig-zag in Elliott Wave terms but there are more complex corrections as well. The more complex corrections are known as triangles.

Trend traders are right to fear complex corrections like a triangle. Correction often due trend traders little favor but to waste time and eat up capital as they hope to catch a breakout. Thankfully, there is a simple correction that is easy to spot and easy to wait for it to break that was earlier introduced as the zig-zag correction. If a correction is not easily recognize, it is often best and most profitable to leave it along until a clear breakout develops.

How to Identify the End of a Correction & Resumption of Trend?

There are 3 ways that can help you confirm the end of a correction. While none of these are guaranteed to bring about an incredible trend resumption, they will signal that the momentum is back with the trend. The three methods listed in order of least aggressive to most aggressive are; price breaks of a corrective highs in an uptrend or corrective lows in a downtrend, corrective price channel breaks, and an RSI-break back in the direction of the prior trend.

Closing Thoughts

For most traders, correction are better left alone. It’s important that you have patience to trade well and now you know multiple tools to help you identify trend continuation. Once the correction is over and the trend has resumed, make sure you manage your risk!


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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.01.22 14:18

So, just to summarize few pages on this topic onto 1 comment:

1. Trend following

1.1. Primary trend
- Uptrend (bullish)
- Downtrend (bearish)

1.2. Secondary trend.
- Correction
- Bear Market Rally

2. Overbough/oversold ('top-and-bottom')

3. Breakout 

There are some more: flat (or non-trading market condition), and ranging market condition. Some people say that flat and ranging are part of secondary trend together with correction and bear market rally; the other people are talking about flat and ranging as separated market condition which can be under item #4 (flat) and item #5 (ranging). I think, the true may be the following: flat and ranging are the part of secondary trend under trend following. If yes so the resultant classification may be the following:

1. Trend following

1.1. Primary trend
- Uptrend (bullish)
- Downtrend (bearish)

1.2. Secondary trend.
- Correction
- Bear Market Rally
- Flat (non-trading)
- Ranging 

2. Overbough/oversold ('top-and-bottom')

3. Breakout 


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newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:57

2013-03-06 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia Has A$1.43 Billion Trade Surplus

Australia posted a merchandise trade surplus of A$1.433 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - up 142 percent on the surplus from December.

That blew away forecasts for a surplus of A$100 million following the upwardly revised surplus of A$591 million in the previous month (originally A$468 million).


AUDUSD M5 : 45 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event :






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newdigital, 2014.03.06 09:50

Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

  • European Central Bank (ECB)to Publish 2016 Economic Projections
  • Governing Council Sees Headline 2015 Inflation at 1.3%

According to a Bloomberg News survey, 40 of the 54 economists polled see the European Central Bank (ECB) retaining its current policy in March, but the broad range of market speculation (rate cut, negative deposit rates, verbal intervention, unsterilized bond purchases, Long-Term Refinancing Operation) may produce increased volatility around the interest rate decision as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 03/06/2014 12:45 GMT, 7:45 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.25%
Previous: 0.25%
Forecast: 0.25%

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite expectations of seeing the ECB further embark on its easing cycle, the central bank’s 2016 economic projects may set the tone for the Euro should the figures highlight a greater threat for deflation, and an inflation forecast below 1.3% may trigger a sharp selloff in the EURUSD as it heightens bets for additional monetary support.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the ECB interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our other trade setups as the press conference with President Draghi ends with a Q&A session

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Loosens Policy and/or Highlights Greater Risk for Deflation

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the decision/statement to consider a short Euro trade
  • If market reaction favors a short trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Sticks to Current Policy
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

EURUSD M5 : 15 pips price movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event :



  • Marks Another Failed Close Above 1.3800; Retails 2008 Down Trend
  • RSI Struggling to Preserve Bullish Momentum Carried Over From February
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0 expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3460 (50.0% expansion)

EURUSD M5 : 46 pips price range movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event



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newdigital, 2014.03.07 07:22

2013-03-06 23:00 GMT (or 00:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed's Lockhart speech]

==========

The Challenge of Estimating Full Employment

Dennis Lockhart
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


Key points

  • Atlanta Fed President and CEO Dennis Lockhart, in a March 6 lecture at Georgetown University, talks about the challenge of estimating full employment.
  • In Lockhart's view, the current stance of monetary policy appropriately aligns with the outlook, and the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program will continue winding down.
  • Lockhart believes the real question is when the Fed's policy interest rate, now near zero, will begin to rise.
  • Lockhart reiterates that inflation and employment are both well short of goal.
  • The current official unemployment rate of 6.6 percent may overstate the overall health of employment conditions, Lockhart says.
  • Lockhart says that to get close to full employment would involve substantial absorption of the shadow labor force—those who are not working but also not counted in the standard unemployment rate.
  • Lockhart stresses that a careful evaluation of the employment situation suggests that full employment is still a ways off, and continued monetary accommodation is necessary.


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EURUSD M5 : 7 pips price movement by USD - Fed's Lockhart speech news event

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newdigital, 2014.03.08 10:32

GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

  • Gold Rally Vulnerable Sub $1361- March Opening Range, NFPs in Focus
  • Crude Oil and Gold Bounce With NFP Data To Offer Further Guidance





Patterns for downtrend :


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newdigital, 2014.03.10 09:12

2013-03-10 07:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

French Industrial Production Unexpectedly Slips Into Contraction

France's industrial production fell back into contraction in January, contrary to economist's forecast for a marked increase, latest data revealed Monday.

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent year-on-year in January, reversing increases of 0.3 percent and 1.5 percent logged in December and November respectively, statistical office Insee said. Economists were looking for 1.3 percent expansion for January.

Sequentially, industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in the beginning of the year, after falling 0.6 percent in December. Expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain.


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EURUSD M5 : 14 pips price movement by EUR - French Industrial Production news event

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newdigital, 2014.03.11 09:19

2013-03-11 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

German Exports Recover In January

German exports grew more than expected in January after declining in December, official data showed Tuesday.

Exports grew 2.2 percent month-on-month in January, reversing the 0.9 percent fall in December, Destatis said. Shipments were forecast to grow 1.5 percent.

Likewise, imports advanced 4.1 percent after declining 1.4 percent a month ago. The rate of growth far exceeded the 1.4 percent rise forecast by economists.

Due to a notable growth in imports, the trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 17.2 billion in January from EUR 18.3 billion in the prior month.


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EURUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by EUR - German Trade Balance news event

EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.03.12 08:51

Trendless Markets: 3 Common Mistakes and How to Correct Them (based on dailyfx article)

Inconsistent trading due to range bound markets could be a result of several factors. Here are 3 common mistakes made:

  • Trend following strategy used in a trendless market
  • Stop loss is too close
  • Emotionally impatient with trades

Error #1 - Using the wrong type of strategy
Correction – Match the strategy to the current market condition

One of the most overlooked elements in creating a trading plan is matching your strategy to the current market environment. Once we find a strategy that ‘works’, we tend to stick with that strategy. There is nothing wrong with that. However, we need to realize and remember that our strategy is NOT designed to well all of the time. There are times our strategy will be out of favor with the market conditions. It is recognizing those situations and taking appropriate action which we typically miss.

Error #2 – Stop Loss is too close
Correction – Give your trade room to breathe for the life of the trade

Another common mistake that traders make is assuming their risk is relegated to the distance of their stop loss to their entry. The truth is the risk to your account is how much currency you stand to lose if the trade does not work out!

Error #3 – Getting impatient and closing trades before the stop or target is reached
Correction – Remember that trendless markets generally take longer to reach support or resistance levels

Frustration for lack of movement is a big reason traders get impatient. We live in a culture of fast food and 15 minute oil changes. We want it and we want it now! The same applies in trading.