Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.05 12:26
2013-03-05 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Relail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
Eurozone Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected In January
Eurozone retail sales grew more-than-expected at the start of the
year, recovering strongly from a slump in the previous month, figures
from Eurostat showed Wednesday.
Retail sales rose 1.6 percent
from December, when they fell 1.3 percent, revised from a 1.6 percent
slump. Economists had expected 0.8 percent growth for January.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.05
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 27 pips price movement by EUR - Relail Sales bews event
newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:12
USDCHF Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
Prices stalled at trend line resistance set from late January after the
US Dollar produced its strongest push upward in a month against the
Swiss Franc. A break this barrier (now at 0.8880) initially exposes
38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8921. Support is in the 0.8848-66
area,marked by the December 2013 closing bottom and the 23.6% level,
with a break below that eyeing the February 28 lowat 0.8776.
Discussion of article "The Implementation of Automatic Analysis of the Elliott Waves in MQL5"
newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:29
Traders often love to trade a good story. Who blame them? Few things are
as exciting as a story that makes sense and price action that mathes
the story as you collect the pips.
Why Focus on Trend Continuation
Trend continuation is where a majority of trend traders enter trades and
make money. However trends correct or end. This even develops with
trends that come with great stories.
However, trends come to an end. Even if the trend will eventually
resume, which we hope it does, trends will at least temporarily correct
as profits are taken. This is where the uncomfortable discipline of
patience becomes a must as trend traders wait out the correction before
the trend resumes.
What Do Common Corrections Look Like?
Corrections can take many forms. The most common correction is known as a
3-wave correction or zig-zag in Elliott Wave terms but there are more
complex corrections as well. The more complex corrections are known as
Trend traders are right to fear complex corrections like a triangle.
Correction often due trend traders little favor but to waste time and
eat up capital as they hope to catch a breakout. Thankfully, there is a
simple correction that is easy to spot and easy to wait for it to break
that was earlier introduced as the zig-zag correction. If a correction
is not easily recognize, it is often best and most profitable to leave
it along until a clear breakout develops.
How to Identify the End of a Correction & Resumption of Trend?
There are 3 ways that can help you confirm the end of a correction.
While none of these are guaranteed to bring about an incredible trend
resumption, they will signal that the momentum is back with the trend.
The three methods listed in order of least aggressive to most aggressive
are; price breaks of a corrective highs in an uptrend or corrective
lows in a downtrend, corrective price channel breaks, and an RSI-break
back in the direction of the prior trend.
For most traders, correction are better left alone. It’s important that
you have patience to trade well and now you know multiple tools to help
you identify trend continuation. Once the correction is over and the
trend has resumed, make sure you manage your risk!
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.01.22 14:18
So, just to summarize few pages on this topic onto 1 comment:
1. Trend following1.1. Primary trend- Uptrend (bullish)- Downtrend (bearish)
1.2. Secondary trend.- Correction- Bear Market Rally
2. Overbough/oversold ('top-and-bottom')
There are some more: flat (or non-trading market condition), and ranging market condition. Some people say that flat and ranging are part of secondary trend together with correction and bear market rally; the other people are talking about flat and ranging as separated market condition which can be under item #4 (flat) and item #5 (ranging). I think, the true may be the following: flat and ranging are the part of secondary trend under trend following. If yes so the resultant classification may be the following:
1.2. Secondary trend.- Correction- Bear Market Rally- Flat (non-trading)- Ranging
newdigital, 2014.03.06 07:57
2013-03-06 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Has A$1.43 Billion Trade Surplus
Australia posted a merchandise trade surplus of A$1.433 billion in
January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - up 142
percent on the surplus from December.
That blew away forecasts for
a surplus of A$100 million following the upwardly revised surplus of
A$591 million in the previous month (originally A$468 million).
AUDUSD M5 : 45 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event :
newdigital, 2014.03.06 09:50
Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
According to a Bloomberg News survey, 40 of the 54 economists polled see
the European Central Bank (ECB) retaining its current policy in March,
but the broad range of market speculation (rate cut, negative deposit
rates, verbal intervention, unsterilized bond purchases, Long-Term
Refinancing Operation) may produce increased volatility around the
interest rate decision as market participants weigh the outlook for
Time of release: 03/06/2014 12:45 GMT, 7:45 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations of seeing the ECB further embark on its easing
cycle, the central bank’s 2016 economic projects may set the tone for
the Euro should the figures highlight a greater threat for deflation,
and an inflation forecast below 1.3% may trigger a sharp selloff in the
EURUSD as it heightens bets for additional monetary support.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Trading the ECB interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some
of our other trade setups as the press conference with President Draghi
ends with a Q&A session
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Loosens Policy and/or Highlights Greater Risk for Deflation
Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision
EURUSD M5 : 15 pips price movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event :
EURUSD M5 : 46 pips price range movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event :
newdigital, 2014.03.07 07:22
2013-03-06 23:00 GMT (or 00:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed's Lockhart speech]
The Challenge of Estimating Full Employment
President and Chief Executive OfficerFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.07
EURUSD M5 : 7 pips price movement by USD - Fed's Lockhart speech news event
newdigital, 2014.03.08 10:32
GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish
Patterns for downtrend :
newdigital, 2014.03.10 09:12
2013-03-10 07:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Industrial Production]
French Industrial Production Unexpectedly Slips Into Contraction
France's industrial production fell back into contraction in
January, contrary to economist's forecast for a marked increase, latest
data revealed Monday.
Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent
year-on-year in January, reversing increases of 0.3 percent and 1.5
percent logged in December and November respectively, statistical office
Insee said. Economists were looking for 1.3 percent expansion for
Sequentially, industrial production decreased 0.2 percent
in the beginning of the year, after falling 0.6 percent in December.
Expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.10
EURUSD M5 : 14 pips price movement by EUR - French Industrial Production news event
newdigital, 2014.03.11 09:19
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Trade Balance]
German Exports Recover In January
German exports grew more than expected in January after declining in December, official data showed Tuesday.
grew 2.2 percent month-on-month in January, reversing the 0.9 percent
fall in December, Destatis said. Shipments were forecast to grow 1.5
Likewise, imports advanced 4.1 percent after declining
1.4 percent a month ago. The rate of growth far exceeded the 1.4 percent
rise forecast by economists.
Due to a notable growth in imports,
the trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 17.2 billion in
January from EUR 18.3 billion in the prior month.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.11
EURUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by EUR - German Trade Balance news event
newdigital, 2014.03.12 08:51
Trendless Markets: 3 Common Mistakes and How to Correct Them (based on dailyfx article)
Inconsistent trading due to range bound markets could be a result of several factors. Here are 3 common mistakes made:
Error #1 - Using the wrong type of strategyCorrection – Match the strategy to the current market conditionOne of the most overlooked elements in creating a trading plan is
matching your strategy to the current market environment. Once we find a
strategy that ‘works’, we tend to stick with that strategy. There is
nothing wrong with that. However, we need to realize and remember that
our strategy is NOT designed to well all of the time. There are times
our strategy will be out of favor with the market conditions. It is
recognizing those situations and taking appropriate action which we
typically miss.Error #2 – Stop Loss is too closeCorrection – Give your trade room to breathe for the life of the tradeAnother common mistake that traders make is assuming their risk is
relegated to the distance of their stop loss to their entry. The truth
is the risk to your account is how much currency you stand to lose if
the trade does not work out!
Error #3 – Getting impatient and closing trades before the stop or target is reachedCorrection – Remember that trendless markets generally take longer to reach support or resistance levelsFrustration for lack of movement is a big reason traders get impatient.
We live in a culture of fast food and 15 minute oil changes. We want it
and we want it now! The same applies in trading.