Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 83
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newdigital, 2014.02.26 09:00
2013-02-26 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - GfK German Consumer Survey]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
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German GfK Consumer Sentiment To Improve In March
Germany's consumer confidence is set to improve in March, a closely watched survey from GfK showed Wednesday.
The consumer confidence index rose to 8.5 points from 8.3 points in February. The index was forecast to remain unchanged at February's originally estimated value of 8.2.
GBPUSD M5 : 34 pips price ranging by GBP - GDP news event :
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newdigital, 2014.02.27 06:55
2013-02-27 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Private Capital Expenditure Falls 5.2% In Q4
Private capital expenditure in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$38.291 billion.
That was well shy of forecasts for a decline of 1.3 percent following the downwardly revised 2.6 percent contraction in the third quarter (originally 3.6 percent).
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AUDUSD M5 : 43 pips price movement by AUD - Private Capital Expenditure news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.28 06:43
2013-02-28 00:00 GMT (or 01:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Business Confidence]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
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NZ business confidence at highest level in almost 20 years
New Zealand business confidence rose to its highest level in almost 20 years in February, indicating strong economic growth this year.
A net 70.8 percent of firms are optimistic about general business conditions this month, up from 64.1 percent in December and the highest level since March 1994, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey. The New Zealand dollar jumped as high as 83.95 US cents from 83.61 cents immediately before the 1pm release, and was recently trading at 83.93 cents.
Firms seeing a pickup in their own business activity rose to 58.5 percent from 53.5 percent in December, the highest reading since June 1994. Expected profitability of 44.6 percent is up from 39.7 percent in December and at the highest level since April 1994.
A net 32.4 percent expect to hire more staff, up from 24.7 percent in December and the highest level December 1992, while investment intentions at 35.2 percent is up from a previous reading of 21.8 percent and the strongest since March 1994.
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NZDUSD M5 : 49 pips price movement by NZD - Business Confidence news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.28 09:52
Trading the News: Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)A slowdown in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar as it raises the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) scope to cut the benchmark interest rate later this year.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 02/28/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD
Expected: 2.6%
Previous: 2.7%
Forecast: 2.5% to 2.6%
Why Is This Event Important:
In light of the protracted recovery, Governor Stephen Poloz may take additional measures to encourage a ‘soft landing,’ and a material shift in the policy outlook may produce fresh highs in the USDCAD as the Federal Reserve remains poised to discuss another $10B taper in March.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish CAD Trade: GDP Report Shows Marked Slowdown in Growth
- Need green, five-minute candle after the GDP report to consider long USDCAD entry
- If the market reaction favors a short Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Growth Rate Rises 2.6% or GreaterPotential Price Targets For The Release
USDCAD M5 : 34 pips price movement by CAD - GDP news event :
USDCAD M5 : 46 pips price movement by CAD - GDP news event :
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newdigital, 2014.03.04 06:50
2013-03-04 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Current Account]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Current Account Deficit A$10.1 Billion
Australia saw a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of A$10.139 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
That missed forecasts for a shortfall of A$10.0 billion following the upwardly revised A$12.5 billion deficit in the third quarter (originally a deficit of A$12.7 billion).
The primary income deficit climbed A$536 million or 6 percent to A$9.898 billion.
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AUDUSD M5 : 28 pips price movement by AUD - Current Account news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.04 08:44
2013-03-04 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
RBA Holds Cash Rate At Record Low; Signals Period Of Stability In Policy
Australia's central bank on Tuesday maintained its main cash rate at a record low for a seventh successive month, and indicated a period of stability in monetary policy, as inflation pressures remained high.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent following its rate-setting meeting. The decision was in line with economists' expectations.
In a post-decision statement, Governor Glenn Stevens said that the monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
AUDUSD M5 : 60 pips price range movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event :
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newdigital, 2014.03.04 10:46
2013-03-04 08:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
Spanish Unemployment Falls In February
Spain's unemployment decreased in February from the prior month, data from labor ministry showed Tuesday. Unemployment declined by 1,949 in February, which was the first decline for February since 2007.
In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment decreased by 55,353, which was the largest decline in the historical series, the ministry said. Youth unemployment fell by 51,159 or 10.7 percent over the last twelve months in February.
EURUSD M5 : 21 pips price movement by EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change news event :
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newdigital, 2014.03.04 19:07
How to Direct Your Strategy based on Market Condition (based on dailyfx article)- Traders should look to focus their strategies in appropriate market conditions.
- Multiple time frame analysis can offer a ‘bigger-picture’ view of a market.
- Traders can choose to trade trends, ranges, or breakouts based on their analysis.
Trends show a bias that has been displayed in the market place; and when a strong trend is available, the trader’s job is simple: To trade in the direction of that trend. If the trend is up, the trader should look to buy; and if the trend is down, the trader should look to sell.Unfortunately trends don’t always exist; and when that often entails congested, range-bound price movements as bulls and bears both fight to take over control of the market in search of the next trend. These range-bound environs can be more dangerous, and given the limited upside that might be available, many traders will often eschew trading the range; instead waiting for the inevitable breakout that may end the range and lead into a new trend.
The Benefit of Multiple Time Frames
The value of being able to get a ‘bigger picture’ view on a market cannot be understated. To think of the value of multiple time frame analysis, think of trading in a currency pair like buying a home.
If you’re going to buy a home, you’re likely going to want more of an overview than simply driving by and getting a quick glance. This is like trading a currency pair when only seeing one time frame.
When buying a home, you’ll likely want to get out of the car and walk around to ensure that the back yard isn’t in complete disarray. You want to check the foundation to make sure that you’re not going to have exorbitant repair expenses in your future. You want to get as much information as is feasibly possible to make the most intelligent purchasing decision that you can.
Trading in a market isn’t all that different, the more information you have the more of an informed decision that you can make.
Multiple Time Frame Intervals for Trend Diagnoses/Entry
And if the four-hour time frame is being used to enter positions, the daily chart can be used to gauge the trend (or lack thereof); so that the trader can ensure they are focusing the optimal approach on the prevailing market condition.
Or perhaps a longer-term trader wants to use the daily chart to enter trades. Well, then the weekly chart can be used as the longer time frame to guide the trader’s decision-making processes.
The benefit of using a longer time frame in the decision as to which strategy to utilize is that the trader can take more information into account, getting an idea of the ‘bigger picture’ before executing on their strategies.
Gauging Trend Strength (or lack thereof)
Once a trader has determined the time frame with which they want to look to grade the prevailing trend, focus can then be diverted to investigating the strength of that trend.
Price Action is a popular mechanism for doing so. Traders can simply look as to whether a market is in the process of making ‘higher-highs’ and ‘higher-lows.’ If this is taking place, then the trader is witnessing an up-trend, and can look to move down to the shorter time frame in an effort to buy as efficiently as possible.
Another popular way of grading trend strength on the longer-term chart incorporates the ADX indicator. ADX, or the Average Directional Index is an indicator created by J. Welles Wilder that was designed specifically to grade trend strength. The downside of this is that it doesn’t show which direction the trend might be moving, only whether the trend is ‘strong’ or ‘weak.’
Traders can use the ADX indicator on the longer-term chart to determine whether or not a trend is being seen in the market. If values are reading over 30 on ADX, then traders will often look to execute trend-based strategies.
Now that the Trend is determined, what’s next?
The shorter time frame is where the trader will often look to enter into the market based on the analysis on the longer time frame.
If a trend was found on the longer time frame, the trader’s job is to find a way to enter in the direction of that trend. On the lower time-frame, the trader can look to buy up-trends cheaply, or to sell down-trends expensively. This can be done with price action; or traders can look to incorporate indicators to offer a ‘trigger’ in the direction of the longer-term trend on the shorter time frame. Some common indicators for triggering positions on the shorter time frame are MACD, Stochastics, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).
If a Range-bound market condition was seen on the longer time frame, the trader has another decision to make before deciding how to enter: Does the trader want to trade continuation of the range, or the eventual breakout?
The logic of the range-bound entry and the breakout is directly opposite: Trading ranges entails selling highs, and buying lows (in anticipation of the range continuing), while trading breakouts involves buying new highs and selling new lows (with the expectation of the breakout bringing new highs or new lows into the market).
If trading for the break, traders can look to place entry orders slightly outside of support or resistance levels so that once a new high or low is printed, the trade is entered and the trader can look for new highs or lows.
If traders are looking to trade the range, an oscillator can be used similarly in the way that a trader would buy or sell in a trend (with the notable exception that up-side is limited). In both trends and ranges, traders want to look to ‘buy low’ and ‘sell high.’ The same types of tools can be used to determine when to buy and when to sell; MACD, Stochastics, and CCI are all popular mechanisms to trade in range-bound market conditions just as they are with trends.
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Indicators: MACD - Any higher timeframe
newdigital, 2014.03.05 07:36
MACD as an Entry Trigger (based on dailyfx article)
Having a strong trigger in a trading strategy can be a very important component. After all, to have a bias and to blindly buy or sell to trade on that bias can be categorized as haphazard; and in some cases that may be a bit of an understatement.
Having a trigger helps with timing the entry into a position. It won’t be perfect, but this is trading an perfection is impossible in the first place. Rather, a strong trigger is a way that traders can look to increase the probabilities of success by allowing the market to begin showing the trader what is wanted before any position is ever entered.
Let’s look at a few examples below to illustrate in more detail.
Using MACD with a Fundamental Approach
Many fundamental traders eschew technical analysis for one reason or the other. This isn’t to say that technical analysis is better or vice versa; these are just two differing ways of analyzing a market. But, the best way is often to try to include them both, and something like a MACD entry trigger can be a best friend to a fundamental trader.
Let’s say that a trader has a bias on the market. This can be any bias: Perhaps the trader expects the S&P to begin tumbling lower… or maybe the trader is expecting the Aussie to shoot to the moon on the back of a cheap dollar and stronger than expected Chinese data. Whatever the case and whatever the bias, the trader can wait to enter the position until the market appears more primed for their idea to come to fruition.
The trader can simply watch the 4-hour chart to get a MACD entry signal in the direction that they are looking to trade
The trader can even look to manage the position via MACD after the first trade is placed.
If a contrarian MACD signal shows up (MACD crosses down and under the signal line while in a long position or vice versa); the trader can look to close the long position until another bullish trigger takes place.
Using this type of approach can allow the fundamentals trader to get potentially higher probabilities of success since they’re waiting for the technical environment to agree with their fundamental bias before triggering into the position.
Using MACD as a Scalper/Day-Trader
Just as the Fundamental-based trader can use MACD to trigger trades in the direction of their bias, scalpers and day-traders can look to do the same on very short-term charts.
Shorter-term traders can use the hourly or four-hour chart to look for trends or biases in the marketplace that may be operable for their purposes; and then can look to enter position with MACD crossovers in price movements in that direction.
Scalpers can use longer-term trend analysis and shorter term MACD entries in direction of trend
The MACD trigger can be investigated on the five or fifteen minute charts to look for quick entries in the direction of slightly longer-term swings.
MACD Triggers as Part of a Broader-based Technical Strategy
Traders can also look to implement a MACD trigger in conjunction of additional technical methods of analysis.
In the 4-hour trader, we looked specifically at that type of strategy.
Traders can use a longer time frame chart, such as the daily chart, to investigate trends and determine any relevant biases that may exist in the marketplace.
Once the trader has determined the direction that they want to trade in a market given the trend found on the longer-term charts, they can then go down to the shorter time frame chart to wait for a MACD signal in the direction of that trend.
Multiple time frame analysis can bring enormous benefit to the trader.
The longer time frame provides the ‘bigger picture’ view of any biases or trends that may exist in the marketplace; and the MACD trigger on the shorter time frame can allow the trader to focus on high-probability setups in which the longer-term bias may be coming back into the market.
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newdigital, 2014.03.05 09:38
2013-03-05 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Q4 GDP Climbs 2.8% On Year
Australia's gross domestic product added a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent on year in the fourth quarter of 2013, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 2.5 percent following the 2.3 percent gain in the third quarter.
On a quarterly basis, GDP added 0.8 percent - also topping expectations for an increase of 0.7 percent following the 0.6 percent gain in the previous three months.
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AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by AUD - GDP news event