Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 82

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

There are no any high impacted news events today so all majors are in flat market condition for timeframes starting with H1 for example.

waiting for tomorrow ...

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newdigital, 2014.02.11 07:17

2013-02-11 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - House Price Index]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Q4 House Prices Rise 3.4% On Quarter

House prices in Australia climbed 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 3.0 percent following the upwardly revised gain of 2.4 percent in the third quarter (originally 1.9 percent).


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.11

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AUDUSD M5 : 64 pips price movement by AUD - House Price Index news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.02.13 08:08

2014-02-13 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Unemployment Rate 6.0% In January

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.0 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That missed forecasts for 5.9 percent - which would have been unchanged from the December reading after it was revised up from 5.8 percent.

The Australian economy lost 3,700 jobs to 11,459,500 in January versus expectations for an increase of 15,000 following the loss of 22,600 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment decreased 7,100 to 7,953,000 and part-time employment increased 3,400 to 3,506,500.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.13

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AUDUSD M5 : 81 pips price movement by AUD - Unemployment Rate news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.13, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

If we look at MT5 calendar so we can see that no any significant news events will be happened today :


So, waiting for tomorrow ...

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.18 07:38

2014-02-18 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]

More hawkish than expected = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Aussie Pares Post-RBA Gain; BlackRock Sees Drop to 85 U.S. Cents

The Australian dollar touched a one-month high after the Reserve Bank said there were further signs easy policy and a weak currency were having an impact. Strength in the Aussie won’t be sustained, BlackRock Inc. said.

The Aussie rose against the yen after the Bank of Japan boosted lending programs. Australia’s currency held a climb against most major peers after minutes of the RBA’s last meeting signaled “a period of stability in interest rates.” Sustained declines in the Aussie would help the nation’s economy adjust to a drop in mining activity, the RBA said, avoiding comments about the currency being too high.

“There is less emphasis on the level of the currency assisting in the rebalancing of the Australian economy,” said Robert Rennie, the global head of currency and commodity strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “If they wanted to, they could have added more concern that Australia needs a sustainably low level for the currency. The fact that they did not, should help the Aussie dollar pop.”

Australia’s dollar was at 90.43 U.S. cents as of 5:16 p.m. in Sydney, from 90.32 yesterday, and touched 90.81, the highest level since Jan. 13. It gained 0.8 percent to 92.81 yen and climbed 0.4 percent to NZ$1.0833.

The Aussie may climb to 92 U.S. cents, said Rennie.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.18

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AUDUSD M5 : 43 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.02.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.02.18 08:01

2013-02-18 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Monetary Policy Statement]

More hawkish than expected = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

==========

Yen Dropped Against Dollar After BOJ's Statement

Yen dropped against dollar and other major currencies, after the Bank of Japan decided to expand its lending program by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen per year, in order to realize the targeted inflation of 2%.

BOJ also doubled a core part of a growth lending program to 7 trillion yen, leading to forecasts that next month will witness more stimulus measures added to financial markets. Hence, the government expects the new sales tax increase in April to have a strong negative impact on the economy, so it needed further monetary stimulus to overcome such negative effect.

Nevertheless, USD/JPY gained for the second straight day to record a high of 102.49, while it was trading near 102.05 levels before the released statement. Euro also picked up against yen to reach the highest in three weeks at 140.55 from a low of 139.87.


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USDJPY, M5, 2014.02.18

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USDJPY M5 : 91 pips price movement by JPY - Monetary Policy Statement news event

USDJPY, M5, 2014.02.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.02.19 07:24

Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (adapted from dailyfx artcle)

The bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trading as U.K. Jobless Claims are expected to contract another 20.0K in January.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/19/2014 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: -20.0K
Previous: -24.0K

Forecast: -10.0K to -25.0K



Why Is This Event Important:

Beyond the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes, an upbeat labor report may a more meaningful reaction in the GBPUSD as it raises the outlook for growth, and it seems as though Governor Mark Carney will look to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in 2014.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims Contract 20.0K+, Jobless Rate Falls From 7.1%

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long British Pound trade
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Employment Report Disappoints
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

  • Looking for Higher Low as Ascending Channel Remains Intact
  • Relative Strength Index Preserves Bullish Trend from July
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6850-60 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.6300 Pivot to 1.6310 (50.0% expansion)



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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.19

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GBPUSD M5 : 54 pips price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims Change news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.02.21 10:57

2013-02-21 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

UK retail sales drop 1.5% – more than expected – but GBP/USD recovers

The volume of British retail sales dropped by 1.5%. Expectations were low for this retail sales release. They were expected to drop by 0.9% for the month of January after an outstanding leap of 2.6% in December, which was now upgraded to 2.7%. Year over year, sales rose by 4.3%, less than 5% expected. Core sales also dropped by 1.5%, and y/y it stands at 4.8%, both also slightly below expectations. All major UK figures disappointed this week.


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newdigital, 2014.02.21 08:01

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (adapted from dailyfx article)

The British Pound may face a larger correction over the remainder of the week as U.K. Retail Sales are expected to contract 1.2% in January.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/21/2014 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: -1.2%
Previous: 2.8%
Forecast: -1.0% to 1.0%

Why Is This Event Important:

A slowdown in household spending may drag on the British Pound as it dampens the prospects of seeing a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike later this year or even in early 2015, but the data print may pave the way for fresh highs in the GBPUSD should it highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Climbs 0.3% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement to favor a long GBP trade
  • If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: Household Spending Disappoints
  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Price & RSI Retains Bullish Trend; Looking for Lower High
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6850-60 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.6300 Pivot to 1.6310 (50.0% expansion)

December 2013 U.K. Retail Sales (GBPUSD M5 : 116 pips price movement by GBP Retail Sales news event) :




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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.21

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GBPUSD M5 : 58 pips price movement by GBP - Retail Sales news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.21, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.25 07:29

2013-02-25 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

==========


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NZDUSD, M5, 2014.02.25

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NZDUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by NZD - Inflation Expectations news event

NZDUSD, M5, 2014.02.25, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.02.25 13:04

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Consumer Confidence to Mark First Decline in Three-Months
  • Conference Board’s Survey has Held Above 80.0 for Four Times in 2013

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey is expected to narrow to 80.0 in February and a marked decline in household sentiment may trigger a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/25/2014 15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 80.0
Previous: 80.7
Forecast: 78.0 to 82.0

Why Is This Event Important:

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) poised to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting, a dismal confidence reading may have a greater impact on the interest rate outlook, and the greenback may face additional headwinds over the near to medium-term as the central bank retains the dovish twist to its forward-guidance.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Confidence Survey Weakens to 80.0 or Lower

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Household Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

January 2014 U.S. Consumer Confidence (EURUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Confidence news event) :



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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.25

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GBPUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by USD - CB Consumer Confidence news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.25, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.02.25 17:00

2013-02-25 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Falls More Than Expected In February

With consumers expressing concerns about the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs, and earnings, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing that U.S. consumer confidence has deteriorated by more than expected in February.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 78.1 in February from a downwardly revised 79.4 in January. Economists had been expecting the index to edge down to 80.1 from the 80.7 originally reported for the previous month.