Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 164

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 09:48

EURUSD Price Action Analysis - ranging bullish with ascending triangle pattern to be formed

D1 price is located above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.1437 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.1057 located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.


If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1437 so the primary bullish trend will be continuing. 
If the price will break 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.1057 from above to below so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started. 
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend

D1 - ranging bullish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 11:17

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and 20 pips price movement

2016-04-05 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

==========

"The Business Activity Index rose to 53.7 in March, from  February’s  35-month low of 52.7. This signalled a faster rate of growth in output, but the second-weakest in six months. Moreover, the Index remained below its   long-run average of 55.2, and the average for  the first quarter of 2016 (54.0)  was the lowest of any quarter since  Q1 2013."

==========

GBPUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by UK Services PMI news event :



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 15:25

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian international merchandise trade and 36 pips price movement

2016-04-05 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -0.6B
  • forecast data is 0.9B
  • actual data is -1.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

"Canada's exports fell 5.4% to $43.7 billion in February, after reaching a record high in January. Export prices decreased 3.2% and volumes were down 2.2%. Imports declined 2.6% to $45.6 billion, as prices were down 1.4% and volumes decreased 1.2%. Consequently, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from $628 million in January to $1.9 billion in February."

==========

USDCAD M5: 36 pips price movement by Canadian international merchandise trade news event :



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 06:51

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 45 pips price movement

2016-04-06 02:45 GMT | [CNH - Caixin Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNH - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

==========

"March survey data pointed to a modest rebound in overall Chinese business activity, driven by slightly stronger growth of services activity and a renewed expansion of manufacturing output. The stronger  performance of the service sector was highlighted by the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index posting at 52.2, up from 51.2. That said, the reading continued to point to a modest rate of expansion that was slower than the series average. Meanwhile, manufacturing output returned to growth after an 11-month sequence of stagnant or reducedproduction, though the rate of growth was only marginal."

==========

USDCNH M5: 45 pips price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event :



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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 10:15

Ahead of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories news event: Crude Oil Intra-Day Price Action Analysis - ranging bullish with the correction to be started

M15 price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started with the secondary ranging by breaking 50.0% Fibo support level at 38.55 to below with yesterday High Line at 38.37 as the next possible target to re-enter. The price is testing the Weekly low Line at 38.51 to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.

The price is located within the following key s/r reversal levels:

  • 38.79 resistance level located far above 100SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • Daily Pivot at 37.99 located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish condition to be continuing.


If the price will break 37.99 support level so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price will break 38.79 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

M15 - ranging bullish with the correction to be started

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 17:16

By the way, on the daily chart - the price is still on the ranging bullish market condition located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and within 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area of the chart. The key reversal s/r levels for the daily price are the following:

  • 42.49 resistance level located near 200-day SMA on the border between the bearish and bullish area of the chart, and
  • 37.23 support level located below 200 SMA and near 100 SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bearish area.


If daily price breaks 42.49 resistance level to above so the bullish reversal will be started with 50.86 bullish target to re-enter.
If daily price breaks 37.23 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing withiut secondary ranging with 29.88/27.06 bearish real targets.

The medium term forecast for Crude Oil is the following: I think the price will be on the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within 42.49 resistance level and 29.88 support level with the possibility to test 27.06 support by year-end.


Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.07 08:58

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging within bullish continuation resistance level and bearish reversal support level

M5 price is above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA_) for the primary bullish market condition: the price is ranging within bullish continuation resistance level at 1.1453 and bearish reversal support level at 1.1402. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.1453 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1402 support so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14531.1402
N/A1.1392


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1402 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1453 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.07 09:38

USD/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for for the bearish trend to be continuing or the bear market rally to be started

M5 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition: the price is ranging within 109.01 resistance level and 108.63 support level waiting for the direction for the primary bearish trend to be continuing or the bear market rally to be started. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 109.01 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If the price will break 109.42 resistance level so we may see the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement.
  • If price will break 108.63 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
109.01108.63
109.42N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 108.63 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 109.42 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.08 08:42

GBPUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bearish within the narrow s/r levels ahead of UK Factory production news event

H4 price is on bearish market condition located far below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the border of the virtual border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging bearish market condition.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future.
  • The nearest support levels for H4 price are 1.4046 and 1.4004.
  • The nearest resistance level for H4 price are 1.4117 and 1.4156.
Resistance
Support
1.41171.4046
1.41561.4004

If H4 price will break 1.4046 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.4156 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.4156 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.4046 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.08 09:43

USDCAD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - secondary correction to the possible bearish reversal

H4 price is on primary bullish condition with the secondary correction with the possible bearish reversal: the price is testing 1.3076 support level to be reversed from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition. Chinkou Span line is located above the price for the ranging bullish trend by direction, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.3180
1.3076
1.32181.3018

If H4 price will break 1.3076 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish will be started.
If H4 price will break 1.3180 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.3180 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.3076 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction