Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 74

Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2013.11.18 17:10

2013-11-18 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - NAHB Housing Market Index]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Holds Steady In November

Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. held steady in the month of November, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Monday.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 54 in November, unchanged from the downwardly revised reading for October.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 55 originally reported for the previous month.

The NAHB noted that the reading above 50 indicates that more builders viewed market conditions as good than poor for the sixth consecutive month.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, "The fact that builder confidence remains above 50 is an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline."






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newdigital, 2013.11.19 07:45

2013-11-19 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]

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Dollar up on RBA's cautious optimism

he Australian dollar edged up on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia noted mounting evidence that interest rate cuts were working to stimulate the economy, though it would not rule out the chance of easing further if necessary.

The Aussie initially dipped to a session low of 93.53 US cents, from an early start at 93.77 US cents, but quickly recovered to last trade at 93.86 US cents.

"Investors were expecting stronger jaw-boning from the RBA about the high currency but didn't get it," said Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

He expects the Aussie to remain subdued this week as the US dollar shows signs of stabilisation across the board.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.19

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2013.11.20 12:22

2013-11-20 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Bank of England Minutes]

==========

Bank of England says UK in sustained recovery

The UK is in a sustained recovery and does not face major inflation risks, Bank of England policymakers have said.

Minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee's November meeting showed the nine members all voted to leave interest rates at 0.5%.


GBPUSD, M5: 32 pips down by Bank of England Minutes; and 35 pips up by Inflation Report Hearings :



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newdigital, 2013.11.20 15:50

2013-11-20 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Consumer Prices Show Unexpected Drop In October

With energy prices showing a notable decrease, the Labor Department released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected drop in consumer prices in the month of October.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged down by 0.1 percent in October after rising by 0.2 percent in September. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected consumer prices to come in unchanged.

Meanwhile, core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, inched up by 0.1 percent for the third straight month. Economists had expected core prices to rise by 0.2 percent.


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newdigital, 2013.11.20 15:54

2013-11-20 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected In October

Retail sales rose by more than expected in the month of October, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, with the sales growth largely due to a rebound in auto sales.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.4 percent in October, while revised data showed that sales were unchanged in September.

Economists had expected retail sales to edge up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.1 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2013.11.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EURUSD M5 : 14 pips down and 30 pips up by US Core CPI and US Core Retail Sales

EURUSD, M5, 2013.11.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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This is strange movement : no any news events ... but the price was movedby 71 pips

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2013.11.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_35053.png

EURUSD, M5, 2013.11.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2013.11.21 11:05

2013-11-21 09:05 GMT (or 10:05 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks]

==========

RBA not ruling out intervention on $A

The Australian dollar is higher than it should be and the Reserve Bank of Australia is keeping an open mind about intervening to bring it lower, governor Glenn Stevens says.

Although the RBA has expressed concern about the high Australian dollar, the benefits of intervention do not outweigh the costs at this point, Mr Stevens said in a speech marking the 30th anniversary of the floating of the Australian dollar.

Intervention in the foreign exchange market would involve selling Australian dollars to buy foreign currency.

Mr Stevens said intervention had previously been used to try to avoid the currency moving downwards too quickly, and now that the reverse was occurring, the RBA was keeping its options open.

"Overall, in this episode so far, the bank has not been convinced that large-scale intervention clearly passed the test of effectiveness versus cost," Mr Stevens said in the speech.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.21

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 36 pips price movement by RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.21, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

By the way, there are free systems (uploaded here on mql5 форум) which catch this price movement for this news event (AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks) with no lagging way. We can see it by this screenshots for example :






Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

Less lagging is BrainTrend :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.21

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_31274.png

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.11.21, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2013.11.21 14:04

2013-11-21 11:00 GMT (or 12:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CBI Industrial Trends Survey]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

==========

U.K. Manufacturing Order, Production Strongest Since 1995: CBI

Growth in British manufacturing orders and production over the last three months reached the highest since 1995, survey data from the Confederation of British Industry showed Thursday.

According to the Industrial Trends Survey, 36 percent of firms said their total order books were above normal and 25 percent said they were below, giving a balance of 11 percent. It was the highest since March 1995.

Similarly, at 29 percent, the balance for output in the three months to November rose at its fastest rate since January 1995.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.11.21

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 45 pips price movement by GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations

GBPUSD, M5, 2013.11.21, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2013.11.22 09:51

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (based on Canadian Dollar Risks Further Losses Amid Threat for Deflation article)

A further slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index may highlight a bearish outlook for the Canadian dollar as it heightens the threat for deflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 11/22/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD
Expected: 0.8%
Previous: 1.1%
Forecast: 0.6% to 1.0%

Why Is This Event Important:

It seems as though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz no longer sees a need for higher interest rates in light of the slowing recovery, and the central bank may adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy as growth and inflation remains subdued.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Inflation Slows to 0.8% or Lower

  • Need green, five-minute candle after the report to consider long USDCAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a short Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Inflation Tops Market Forecast
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USDCAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish CAD trade, just in the opposite direction


CPI data out of Canada showed September price growth at 1.1%, beating estimates of a 1.0% print. The USD/CAD pair weakened heading into the weekly close as pressure mounted on the greenback due to speculation of a delayed Fed taper- a result of the two week long US Government shutdown. The year over year print this time around is estimated to be a dismal 0.8% due to impacts from the shutdown in addition to a decline in fuel prices across the board. Sustained lower crude prices will continue to put pressure on inflation levels and may prompt dovish intervention by the Bank of Canada as the Federal Reserve looks to step back asset purchases over the next few months. Disappointing CPI prints moving forward do not bode well for CAD strength, especially in the context of a BoC that just removed pledges to raise rates in the future.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, D1, 2013.11.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_21658.png

USDCAD, D1, 2013.11.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo