Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 79

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newdigital, 2014.01.16 11:04

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (adapted from dailyfx article)

U.S. Consumer Prices are projected to increase an annualized 1.5% in December, which would mark the first advance since July, and a pickup in price growth may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further reduce its asset-purchase program as it dampens the threat for disinflation.




What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/16/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 1.5%
Previous: 1.2%
Forecast: 1.4% to 1.6%

Why Is This Event Important:

A pickup in price growth may spur a further shift in the policy outlook as the Fed anticipates a more robust recovery in 2014, and the central bank may take a more aggressive approach in moving away from its easing cycle as the outlook for growth and inflation improves.




How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Consumer Prices Increased 1.7% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the CPI print to consider a short EURUSD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Price Growth Remains Subdued
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction




Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • String of Failed Closes Above 1.3800 Favors Downward Trend Dating Back to 2008
  • RSI Highlights Further EURUSD Weakness as Bearish Divergence Takes Shape
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0 expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3530 (61.8 expansion) to 1.3570 (23.6 retracement)

Trading CPI

On the image - buy position with stop loss on breakeven :



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newdigital, 2014.01.17 08:08

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (based on this article)

Household spending in the U.K. is expected to increase another 0.3% during the month of December, and a positive print may push the GBPUSD back towards the 1.6600 handle as the stronger recovery raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/17/2013 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 0.3%
Previous: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.3% to 0.4%

Why Is This Event Important:

A pickup in private consumption may encourage BoE Governor Mark Carney to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to lift the benchmark interest rate later this year amid the growing threat for a housing bubble.



How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Climbs 0.3% or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement to favor a long GBP trade
  • If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBPUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit




Bearish GBP Trade: Household Spending Disappoints
  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBPUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction


November 2013 U.K. Retail Sales :



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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 116 pips price movement by GBP Retail Sales news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.01.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.01.20 10:26

2013-01-20 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

==========

China's Economic Growth Slows to 7.7%

The nation's economy grew 7.7% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, slower than the 7.8% it posted in the third quarter, according to data released Monday by China's National Bureau of Statistics. For the year it also posted 7.7% growth, matching the revised pace it recorded in 2012.

"There was steady economic progress [last year] and this was no small achievement," the bureau said in a statement. But it added that the Chinese economy still faces imbalances, while "fundamentals of the economic recovery are still not stable."

The fourth-quarter increase was higher than a median 7.6% gain forecast by 13 economists in a Wall Street Journal survey.

"We don't see any areas that would support an economic rebound in the first quarter," said Ma Xiaoping, economist with HSBC Holdings PLC.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 20 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 20 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDJPY, M5, 2014.01.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDJPY M5 : 18 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event

USDJPY, M5, 2014.01.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  
This is bank holiday in the US today so the prices for many pairs are moved alone without "big brother" (without USD)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.21 15:43

2013-01-21 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

==========

Canada November Factory Shipments Advance 1%

Canadian factory shipments in November rose at a stronger-than-expected pace and the level of sales hit a nearly two-year high on the strength of transport equipment and industrial machinery, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

Factory sales rose 1.0% to 50.51 billion Canadian dollars ($46.12 billion), which was above market expectations for a November gain of 0.3%, according to economists Royal Bank of Canada. The October data were revised downward, and indicate factory sales rose month-over-month by a less robust 0.7% to C$49.99 billion versus the earlier estimate of a 1% gain to C$50.09 billion.


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.21

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 27 pips price movement by CAD - Manufacturing Sales news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.21, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.01.22 06:48

2013-01-22 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia Inflation Rises 0.8% In Q4

Consumer prices in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 81 pips price movement by AUD - CPI news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.01.22 17:26

2013-01-22 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

==========

Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rates Target At 1 Per Cent

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada has moved further below the 2 per cent target, owing largely to significant excess supply in the economy and heightened competition in the retail sector. The path for inflation is now expected to be lower than previously anticipated for most of the projection period. The Bank expects inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in about two years, as the effects of retail competition dissipate and excess capacity is absorbed.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 100 pips price movement by CAD - Overnight Rate news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.01.23 07:57

2013-01-23 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

==========

HSBC flash PMI fell to 49.6, said the investment bank is no need to worry too much seasonal effects

HSBC China Manufacturing January purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in the initial accident six months low, and is also the first time in six months below 50, below market expectations, triggering two to stock market volatility. HSBC considers presetting macro policy fine-tuning space for steady growth, but the investment bank Merrill Lynch believes, PMI initial decline may be related to the Spring Festival approaching, small businesses have begun to leave about, I believe a quarter GDP growth will remain stable.

==========

China HSBC Manufacturing PMI Dips Into Contraction

"The marginal contraction of January's headline HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI was mainly dragged by cooling domestic demand conditions. This implies softening growth momentum for manufacturing sectors, which has already weighed on employment growth," said Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China and Co- Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.23

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.01.23, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.01.23 11:40

Trading the News: Canada Retail Sales (based on this article)

A rebound in Canada Retail Sales may spark a near-term correction in the USDCAD as it raises the fundamental outlook for growth and inflation

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/23/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD
Expected: 0.2%
Previous: -0.1%
Forecast: -0.1% to 0.2%

Why Is This Event Important:

In light of the recent comments from the BoC, it seems as though Governor Stephen Poloz may revert back to an easing cycle as the persistent slack in the real economy raises the threat for disinflation, and the central bank may turn increasingly dovish over the coming months should we see a further slowdown in the economic recovery..

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Household Spending Rises 0.2% or More

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short USDCAD trade
  • If reaction favors a long Canadian dollar trade, sell USDCAD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish CAD Trade: Private Consumption Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USDCAD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in opposite direction



  • Retails Long-Term Bull Trend; Looking for Higher High
  • Favor ‘Buying Dips’ as Long as RSI Holds Above 70
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1100 Pivot to 1.1140 (100.0% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.0900 Pivot to 1.0930 (61.8% expansion)



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newdigital, 2014.01.23 15:39

2013-01-23 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

==========

USD/CAD off highs after Canadian retail sales data

The U.S. dollar pulled back from four-and-a-half year highs against the Canadian dollar on Thursday as a sharper-than-expected increase in Canadian retail sales prompted investors to take profits.

USD/CAD retreated from 1.1174, the highest since July 2009, to trade at 1.1105, just 0.18% higher for the day.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.1050 and resistance at 1.1174, the session high.

The Canadian dollar found support after official data showed that retail sales rose 0.6% in November, surpassing expectations for a 0.3% increased, recovering from a 0.1% decline in October.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.23

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 38 pips price movement by CAD - Retail Sales news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.23, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.24 08:23

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)


What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/24/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD
Expected: 1.3%
Previous: 0.9%
DailyFX Forecast: 1.0% to 1.3%

Why Is This Event Important:

It seems as though the Bank of Canada (BoC) may revert back toits easing cycle as the persistent slack in the real economy continues to drag on growth and inflation, and Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to talk up bets for lower borrowing costs in an effort to encourage a ‘soft-landing’ for the Canadian economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Canada Inflation Climbs to 1.3% or Higher

  • Need red, five-minute candle after the CPI report to consider short USDCAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a long Canadian dollar trade, establish short with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bbearish CAD Trade: Canada Consumer Prices Disappoint
  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to look at a long USDCAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish CAD trade, just in the opposite direction


  • At Risk for Correction Following Higher High- Lower High on Horizon
  • To Face Larger Pullback Once RSI Falls Back from Overbought
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1172 Pivot to 1.1200 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 1.0900 Pivot to 1.0930 (61.8% expansion)

November 2013 Canada Consumer Price Index :




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newdigital, 2014.01.24 15:30

2013-01-24 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

==========


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.24

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 15 pips up and 48 pips down by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.01.24, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo