Forecast and levels for EURO - page 16

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.11 08:35

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, November 12 - November 19 (based on the article)

EUR/USD managed to tick up amid OK data from Europe and weakness in the US dollar. GDP data stands out in a busier week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German GDP (preliminary): Tuesday, 7:00. The so-called “locomotive” of the euro-zone has enjoyed a growth rate of 0.6% q/q in the second quarter of 2017. Q3 should be similar.
  2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00. The final read will likely confirm this number.
  3. German WPI: Tuesday, 7:00. Prices at the wholesale level eventually reach the consumers.
  4. Italian GDP (preliminary): Tuesday, 9:00. The number for Q3 could be better.
  5. Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00.
  6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The all-European number stood at 26.7 points.
  7. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. A drop is on the cards now.
  8. French Final CPI: Wednesday, 7:45. The data will probably be confirmed now.
  9. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00. A rise to 21.6 billion was recorded in August and a similar figure is probable now.
  10. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
  11. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. The 19-country currency bloc had a wide surplus of 33.3 billion euros in August, reflecting a widening surplus. Similar to the narrower trade balance publication, Germany’s contribution is crucial.

 

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is it time to sell eurusd

MAHER GERGES, 2017.11.14 18:45

as we are only one month away from raising interest rate from the USA?



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.15 15:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in October as an increase in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods offset a decline in demand for building materials, suggesting consumer spending remained fairly strong early in the fourth quarter."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales increased 0.2 percent last month. Data for September was revised to show sales jumping 1.9 percent rather than the previously reported 1.6 percent advance."
  • "Retail sales increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: rrange price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 

EURUSD is retesting the resistance level of 1.1800 that can be seen up to weekly timeframe. Waiting for some formations of pattern in the daily timeframe or lower to see any possibility of continuation or reversal.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.17 16:57

EUR/USD Next year Outlook - EUR/USD at 1.17/1.19 in Q1 of 2018 and at 1.22 in Q2, and Q3 of 2018 (adapted from the article)

Monthly price is on breakout within the primary bearish market condition: price was bounced from 1.0494 support level to above for the good secondary rally with the "reversal" Senkou Span line to be testing to above for the long-term bullish reversal.

If the price breaks 1.2092 resistance on close monthly bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition; otherwise - the price will be ranging within the levels near Senkou Span line waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

Most likely scenario for 2018: breaking 1.20 resistance to above for the global long-term bullish reversal.


  • "Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, expecting a flat profile around 1.17 level into Q1 of next year before breaking higher towards the 1.20 level in Q2."
  • "Starting in Q2 18, we expect EUR appreciation to renew on the back of an announcement around sequencing of ECB tightening. The Italian election will likely result in a higher risk premium for the EUR in the near term, but we see the ‘Politics of Rage’ more as a medium-term risk for the euro area," Barclays argues."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.19 10:15

EUR/USD - 1.1860 as a next target for the primary daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary rally within the primary bearish trend: price is located near and below Ichimoku cloud for Senkou Span line to be tested to above for the resistance level at 1.1860 as a next target for the primary daily bullish reversal.


  • "A lot of noise was made when EUR/USD broke the ‘neckline’ of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we were indeed onboard with what was presented to us as a valid confirmation of the three-month pattern. However, last week’s surge pushed the euro well above the ‘neckline’ and the trend-line running down off the September high. The combination of technical breaches significantly decreases the likelihood of the ‘H&S’ pattern still holding any real weight. One could say the formation isn’t fully wrecked until we see the euro trade above the ‘right shoulder’, but with the sturdy trend-line broken along with the ‘neckline’ the probability of the formation becoming fully invalidated rose sharply last week. "
  • "This doesn’t mean EUR/USD is in the clear for higher prices just yet, though. The downtrend off the September high remains intact for now with the series of lower-lows and lower-highs still in place. It’s possible the Wednesday reversal-day marked the next lower-high in the sequence. This makes that particular day, and even more importantly, the area around 11876 so crucial. It’s the 2010 low, which is why it has received so much attention in recent months as both support and resistance. Strong clearance above will be needed before the euro can run. If we see a solid close above, preferably into the 11900s, the area surrounding the 2012 lows between 12000/100 or higher will come into focus."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.21 07:34

EUR/USD - bullish ranging within 1.1859/1.1584 levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and below Ichimoku cloud and Senkow Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is testing resistance level at 1.1859 to above for the daily bullish reversal toi be started, otherwise - bullish ranging within 1.1859/1.1584 levels.


  • "EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 29.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.7% lower than yesterday and 23.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 15.8% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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Chart was made on MT5 with PriceChannel Parabolic system (MT5) from this post (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

The EURUSD keeps pulling back to the downside, but the 1.1700 level may act as support, a breakdown below the 1.1700 level could take the pair to the 1.1600 zone. For now, the 1.1800 level has been acting as a good resistance.

 

Waiting to see the next result after the current candlesticks grouping in the range of 1.1750 and 1.1700.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.23 15:40

EUR/USD - daily bullish reversal; 1.1860 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on the secondary rally for Ichimoku cloud together with 1.1860 to be crossing to above for the daily bullish reversal to be started.


  • "The Euro is struggling to make upward progress after pushing past resistance that had defined the down trend against the US Dollar since early September. The breakout suggested that the dominant 2017 advance was back in play but follow-through has been cut off ahead of the 1.19 figure, at least for now."
  • "From here, a daily close above support-turned-resistance at 1.1857 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1967. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 1.1662-79 area (August 17 low, 23.6% Fib retracement) paves the way for a retest of the November 7 low at 1.1553."
  • "Prices are too close to immediate resistance to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of an actionable bearish reversal signal warns against taking up the short side. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent until a better trade setup presents itself."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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