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Forecast and levels for EUR/USD - page 5

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Taras Slobodyanik
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Taras Slobodyanik  

Quarterly forecast without quarterly candles - disorder )

1

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.03 08:07

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 04 - June 11 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made an attempt to move higher but never went too far. The highlight of the upcoming week is the ECB decision. Will Draghi upgrade the assessment? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Services PMIs: Tuesday: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German release at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number is published at 8:00.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. This 2800-strong survey beat expectations in recent months and was on the march to the upside. After hitting a score of 27.4 in May, the figure for June could be a bit higher.
  3. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 9:00. We now get the April data.
  4. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. Volatility is not uncommon in this measure.
  5. GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. According to the previous estimates, the euro-zone economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 2017. Since that read, we had an upgrade of GDP from France. Will the euro-zone GDP be upgraded as well?
  6. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:00.
  7. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:45. France’s trade deficit had already narrowed last year, but it had widened once again, reaching 5.4 billion in March.
  8. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB stop seeing risks as tilted to the downside?
  9. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00.The figure will likely be confirmed.
  10. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00. This surplus reached 19.6 billion euros in March.
  11. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45.

Sergey Golubev
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Eur/Usd bullish chart pattern.

Thomas Lawson, 2017.06.04 17:11

Hammer candle pattern on eur/usd weekly chart. Very bullish signal. The eur/usd forex pair pulled back to the 1.12100 area, and with a poor US jobs number spiked upwards to near the 1.13000 area. I think this currency pair is preparing for the ECB to start tapering on its bond purchasing program(QE) by the end of this year. It could be heading to the resistance at 1.16130. But keep in mind there will be a lot of pullbacks as sellers try to pick the tops. The technicals and fundamentals all confirm that this Forex pair is in an uptrend. Just buy on the pullbacks and you will be fine.

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.08 14:44

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates and range price movement 

2017-06-08 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

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From official report:

  • "At today’s meeting, which was held in Tallinn, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

By the way, daily price is still ranging above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1284 resistance level for the bullish trend continuation, and
  • 1.1109 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

Most likely scenario in the near future is the following: the price breaks 1.1284 to above for the bullish trend to be resumed, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
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Something Interesting in Financial Video June 2017

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.09 07:13

EUR/USD - The Most Popular Currency in Forex

EUR/USD is the most widely traded currency pair in the forex trading market accounting for some 50% of trades. This implies the tightest spreads and may hence be one of the better cross pairs to start trading. The pair is fairly volatile and can reasonably move in 50 to 60pts even when there's nothing going on. Obviously news from the Eurozone or the USA economy always will move this pair.



Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.11 08:20

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 11 - June 18 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was on the back foot after Draghi managed to drag the euro down and as the greenback recovered. The week ahead consists of French parliamentary elections, an important German survey, the Eurogroup meetings and more.


  1. French Parliamentary elections: Sunday, results due before markets open. After Macron won the presidency, he needs his new party to win a majority in parliament in order to pass his reforms. The young president succeeded in attracting candidates from both the left and the right as well as non-politicians. Recent opinion polls are positive for Macron’s party La Republique En Marche. This is the first round of the elections and the second one is next week. A victory for Macron is priced in and the euro would react negatively only if he loses ground. In any case, the impact is not expected to be as strong as in the presidential elections.
  2. German WPI: Tuesday, 6:00. A slower increase of 0.2% is projected now.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00.
  4. German CPI (final): Wednesday, 6:00.
  5. Employment change: Wednesday, 9:00. This quarterly figure comes a bit late, closer to the end of the following quarter.
  6. Industrial output: Wednesday, 9:00.
  7. French CPI (final): Thursday, 6:45. The second-largest economy saw prices ticking up by 0.1% in May. This will probably be confirmed now.
  8. Trade balance: Thursday, 9:00. We now get the data for April which is projected to show 22.4 billion.
  9. Eurogroup meetings: From Thursday afternoon and sometimes late into the night. The group of euro-zone finance ministers convenes and Greece tops the agenda.
  10. CPI (final): Friday, 9:00.

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.13 08:51

EUR/USD Analysis by Societe Generale: the euro will rise (based on the article)

Weekly price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging qwithin the following support/resistance levels:\

  • 1.1000 support level located in the beginning of the ranging trend to be started with 1.0685 weekly bearish reversal target at 1.0685, and
  • 1.1418 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed.

By the way, SocGen is evaluating the most likely future possible trend for this pair as a bullish continuation of case the price breaks 1.15 resistance level to above.


  • "The last time that FX vol was durably in a low regime coincided with a period when central bank policies were more accommodative than today. The market now sees reduced political fears and is refocusing on the modalities of ECB tightening, the case for more euro bullishness and more volatility is resurfacing."
  • "In our view, it is very likely that both the euro and its volatility will rise."
  • "We therefore recommend Buying a 6m EUR/USD call strike 1.15, conditioned by realised volatility being above 9% at the maturity."


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 10:52

Federal Funds Rate forecast by Danske Bank (based on the article)

Danske remains tactically short EUR/USD targeting 1.09:


  • "Danske Bank FX Strategy Research holds an anti-consensus view that sees the Fed skipping hiking at the meeting and instead announcing the triggers for quantitative tightening (QT). However, Danske argues that such an outcome should be USD positive and should lead to the start of a correction in EUR/USD over the Summer."
  • "For EUR/USD, a hawkish stance from the Fed would come at a time where the ECB has admittedly moved a tad closer to ‘neutral’ on rates but at the same time laid out an inflation outlook that deters Draghi and co from looking for an easing exit any time soon. In our view, this makes for a period where EUR/USD could move to the lower end of its newfound 1.08-1.13 range. Should the Fed refrain from hiking in June, the knee-jerk reaction will most likely be to send EUR/USD higher, but we do not expect a move much above the 1.13 level. However, in our base case that a summer hike will come – if not June, then July – we think that as markets digest the boldness with which we think the FOMC will move near term, USD strength will materialise for a while."

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 20:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Brent Crude Oil: FOMC Federal Funds Rate

2017-06-14 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.00%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report:

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events



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