Forecast and levels for EURO - page 12

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Victor Ziborov:

Today is September 6, 2017. The maximum price of EURUSD was 1.2070 on August 29, 2017. After that, there were no serious events that could seriously move the price anywhere. After that, we had NonFarm = 156K (it's less than 200K) on September 1, which did not affect the situation in any way. (When NonFarm is more than 200K, this provokes serious movement.)

Tomorrow September 7 at 14:45 (Kiev), the following event will occur, which may move the EURUSD price even higher. This is the interest rate for the EUR (Minimum Bid Rate). And the next event will take place on September 20. This is the interest rate for USD (Federal Funds Rate). This event can also seriously change the situation.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.09 07:25

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)


"Looking ahead to the coming week, we do not have any major news from the Eurozone but we have the PPI and the CPI data from the US which should tell us about the inflation in the US and give us a hint of when the next rate hike from the Fed would be. With the pair closing the week above 1.20, we believe that the uptrend is still intact but the moves could be much slower than usual as the ECB is clearly uncomfortable with the euro being at these levels and the traders seem to be biding their time for a turnaround in the dollar strength. So, in the coming week, we could see the EURUSD make its way towards the 1.21 and then 1.22 region provided the US data is not too strong. Else, we could see the pair correct towards 1.18."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.09 15:54

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)


EUR/USD - "Fed Fund Futures highlight growing expectations Chair Janet Yellen and Co. will stay on hold throughout the remainder of the year as the central bank struggles to achieve the 2% target for price growth, with Governor Lael Brainard warning the central bank ‘should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target.’ In turn, the data prints coming out ahead of the September 20 interest rate decision may produce headwinds for the dollar as the core U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to slowdown in August, while Retail Sales are anticipated to increase 0.1% following a 0.6% expansion in July. Subdued price growth accompanied by signs of easing consumptions may encourage the FOMC to preserve a wait-and-see approach especially as Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer departs the central bank in October, and Fed officials may ultimately project a more shallow path for the benchmark interest rate as Hurricane Harvey and Irma risk derailing the economic recovery."


 

Will there be a downward turn on the EURUSD chart?

As can be seen from the graph, we have a clear divergence in the MACD, which allows us to assume a possible downward turn, or at least an approaching flat. Meanwhile, the presence of divergence is not a 100% guarantee of the forecast. On the chart, we showed weekly candles in yellow. As you can see, the last four weeks candles look up confidently. Therefore, we can not conclude that we can predict a 100% turn down.

 

Market still fear on how Hurricans would affect the Dollar, I'm expecting Eur/Usd would extend its gain afer the correction movement. Resistance can be found around 1.2090/1.2100 zone.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.13 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-09-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in July and moved up 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 14:17

"The time has not yet come.." -  interview with ECB Chief Economist and Executive Board member Peter Praet (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition: price is testing 1.2092 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "The time has not yet come for the European Central Bank to start gradually winding down its massive monetary stimulus and the bank is being very careful with communicating its stance about the strong euro, ECB Chief Economist and Executive Board member Peter Praet said in an interview to the Belgian newspaper De Tijd, published on Saturday. The text of the interview was put on the ECB website."
  • "Everyone agrees that we have to make sure that the reduction of the stimulus takes place in an orderly manner, without any excessive shocks."

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Indicator on separate window on the chart above is MFCS Currency Correlation Chart indicator for MT5 from CodeBase (free to download)


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 15:00

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 17 - September 24 (based on the article)

EUR/USD suffered under pressure from the US dollar and as the German elections near. Is this just a correction after reaching new highs? Or has the rally peaked? Inflation data and PMIs stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. CPI (final): Monday, 9:00. The numbers will likely be confirmed in the final read.
  2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00. An upbeat assessment will support Chancellor Angela Merkel.
  3. Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. A slightly wider surplus of 22.3 billion is predicted.
  4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A score of 22.3 billion is projected.
  5. German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. A rise of 0.1% is forecast.
  6. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. This monthly report by the European Central Bank provides insight on how they see the economic situation and price development. It is a more detailed report than the statement released after the rate decision.
  7. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 16:00. A repeat of the same score is on the cards.
  8. Flash PMIs: Friday: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the euro-zone. 
  9. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. A similar score of -2 is projected now.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 09:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD: FOMC Fed Funds Rate

2017-09-20 19:00 GMT | [USD - FED Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - FED Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 16:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and range price movement 

2017-09-21 14:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

If the speech suggests the tightening of the monetary policy = positive for the euro.

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. 

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From official report :

  • "Financial and business cycles can potentially become de-synchronised, meaning that financial imbalances can grow in an environment characterised by relatively muted inflation. In such an environment, the use of monetary policy is not the right instrument to address financial imbalances, and may lead to substantial deviations of aggregate output and inflation from their desirable levels. This is particularly so in a currency union where monetary policy affects the entire region, but financial imbalances may be local in nature. Macroprudential policies, targeted at particular markets or countries, can play a key role in addressing such imbalances."
  • "But beyond increasing the resilience of the banking sector, there is also a need to address the remaining legacies of the crisis. Two important aspects are the resolution of already impaired assets, and better accounting for impaired assets for the future."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event 


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Chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

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