Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 14
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EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging to reversal
H4 price is on secondary correction with the bearish reversal: the price is breaking 200 period SMA from above to below for the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition.
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : ranging to the bearish reversalForum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.16 19:16
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Federal Funds Rate and 14 pips range price movement
2016-03-16 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
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"Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation."
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EURUSD M5: 14 pips range price movement by FOMC Federal Funds Rate news event :
This is not 104 pips price movement by FOMC Federal Funds Rate news event - this is 118 pips for now, and it may be about 200 pips at end-day situation:
Why it may be around 200 pips in the end of this day? If we look at H4 chart so the price was fully reversed to the bullish market condition, and 1.1219 level is the key intra-day resistance for possible breakout (and 1.0963 support is the key breakdown level for possible bearish reversal for example). So, we may see more good movement in the near future for example.
If we look at daily chart so the situation was not changed so much - the price is still in ranging within 1.1276 resistance and 1.0821 support levels to be within 200-day SMA/100-day SMA ranging area so this high impacted news event (FOMC Federal Funds Rate) is more important for intra-day trading for now other than for daily technical situation or technical analysis.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.17 12:32
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone Trade Balance and 45 pips price movement
2016-03-17 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
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"The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in January 2016 was €145.3 billion, a decrease of 2% compared with January 2015 (€148.0 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €139.1 bn, a fall of 1% compared with January 2015 (€140.9 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €6.2 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in January 2016, compared with +€7.1 bn in January 2015. Intra-euro area trade remained stable at €132.5 bn in January 2016 compared with January 2015."
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EURUSD M5: 45 pips price movement by Euro-Zone Trade Balance news event :
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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.17 16:39
Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: intra-day breakout. This pair is on bullish intra-day breakout for H4 timeframe: price broke key resistance levels on the way to uptrend and it was bounced from 1.1342 resistance level. Chinkou Span line is located to be above the price indicating the intra-day breakout to be continuing. If the price breaks 1.1342 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be re-started, otherwise - ranging bullish.
GBP/USD: bullish breakout with 1.4481 resistance to be broken for the breakout to be continuing. The intra-day price (H4) for this pair is on very similar situation with EURUSD: intra-day breakout. The price was bounced from 1.4481 level on the way to uptrend. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the breakout to be continuing in the near future.
USD/JPY: ranging bearish. Intra-day price (H4) is located to be below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition: the price is started to be ranging within 110.66 support and 112.22 resistance levels. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating for the bearish trend to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.18 06:05
Fundamentals Analysis: UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (adapted from the article)
2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.18 15:19
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UoM Consumer Sentiment and 11 pips range price movement
2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
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EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news event :