Press review - page 555

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2017-09-14 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

==========

From official report :

• "Bank Rate held at 0.25%, government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at £10bn"

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

-----

Arrows on the chart above = BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - daily correction; 3,185 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from weekly resistanc at 4,918 to below for the secondary correction to be started. The price is testing 3,185 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "Big Banks want to destroy Bitcoin before it destroys them. Bitcoin, the “people’s currency,” has the potential to become a new currency, free of the control of big governments and big banks. That’s why they both want to limit this potential. Each one in their own way.  Big governments by stepping up regulations of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and by shutting down cryptocurrency exchanges, as the Chinese government has announced recently, crushing cryptocurrencies."
• "To be fair, bankers aren’t the only ones that have raised their level of skepticism about the rapid ascend of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. But to call the digital currency a fraud and a tulip is more than skepticism, in my opinion. It undermines the potential of Bitcoin to become a “peoples’ currency,” and replace national currencies."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-day Gold bearish reversal with Dollar Index to be testing 91.50 support for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Price for H4 timeframe was bounced from 1,334 resistance to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 1,315 support level to be crossing for the bearish trend to be contionuing. By the way, the Dollar Index price is goping to be reersed on intra-day basis as well with 91.50 key support level.

• "After penetrating the zone of resistance that had developed last summer from $1,350-$1,375, short-term bearish price action has begun to show. Even with North Korea conducting another missile test and while the U.S. Dollar remained relatively bearish against most currencies, sellers controlled short-term price action in Gold, driving prices down to a key support zone. "
• "The fact that Gold prices haven’t put in a more vigorous response to this support zone combined with the fact that bulls failed to take over after another North Korean missile flew over Japan, it would appear that more weakness is on the horizon for Gold prices. This can lead to a deeper retracement in Gold prices, and below we’re looking at three support zones of interest below the current area. This could be looked at as potential take-off points for the longer-term bullish theme, with the expectation that an eventual re-test of $1,375 will be in the cards; while these levels can also function as short-side targets for those looking to take on bearish exposure to Gold. If Gold prices slip below the $1,275 level, then the confluent zone around $1,250 becomes attractive for short-side profit targets."

-----

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download).
Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The big U.S. data point for this week was Thursday’s release of inflation for the month of August. And while this came-out in a rather encouraging format, with headline printing at 1.9% versus an expectation of 1.8% while core came-in at 1.7% versus the 1.5% estimate, bulls were unable to hold on to the previous week’s gains as sellers took over ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting next week. This better-than-expected inflation print is the second consecutive month of higher prices for the U.S. economy; and this comes after a troubling turn in the beginning of the year that saw inflation swan-dive from a 2.7% high in February down to a low of 1.6% in June. Normally – a print such as we saw yesterday would bring at least a day’s worth of strength into the Dollar; but the context with which we are currently operating can’t quite be considered normal as a huge FOMC meeting looms on the docket for next week, when the bank may announce the start of Quantitative Tightening."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The bank of England made clear this week that markets are underestimating the possibility of an interest rate hike this year, despite weak GDP and wage growth numbers. The clear message was sent out by governor Carney after Thursday’s MPC meeting and reinforced by a hawkish speech by BOE policy maker Gert Vlieghe, a one-time dove. Cable duly responded hitting a 15-month high and still has room to move to the upside, especially as the USD remains weak."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "This coming week will be about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, so the focus will be on the Fed’s expectations moving forward. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, at this time there is over a 51% chance they will hike rates by 25 bps in December. Will expectations get boosted or dampened on Wednesday? Outside of the Fed meeting, there are no ‘high’ impact data events on the calendar."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "A key focus this week was the wide spread between the bullish-looking Brent Oil chart and the uncertain crude oil market. Mid-week, the spread between the global benchmark (Brent) and Crude Oil, identical products produced in different parts of the world was the widest in two years. As the gap closed, Brent traded higher and reached the highest price since April when it traded at $55.74 in the Bullish aftermath of the IEA report showing the global oil surplus was shrinking. The price support that traders should watch is not the 200-DMA at $49.56 that price is currently trading near, but the higher low of $47.08 from September 8. When looking at the chart above, you can see that the majority of price moves have been choppy and overlapping. This means that a break back below $47.08 would bring a continuation of the environment we’ve been trading in that is a multitude of three-wave moves that eventually move lower. Below $47.08 opens up the internal price support of $45.38, which has been a harbinger that Bearish Pressure was soon to reign supreme again."

[Sergey Golubev]

"The time has not yet come.." -  interview with ECB Chief Economist and Executive Board member Peter Praet (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition: price is testing 1.2092 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging within the levels.

• "The time has not yet come for the European Central Bank to start gradually winding down its massive monetary stimulus and the bank is being very careful with communicating its stance about the strong euro, ECB Chief Economist and Executive Board member Peter Praet said in an interview to the Belgian newspaper De Tijd, published on Saturday. The text of the interview was put on the ECB website."
• "Everyone agrees that we have to make sure that the reduction of the stimulus takes place in an orderly manner, without any excessive shocks."

-----

Indicator on separate window on the chart above is MFCS Currency Correlation Chart indicator for MT5 from CodeBase (free to download)

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 17 - September 24 (based on the article)

The US dollar staged an impressive recovery, based on better data, political calm and more. Is this a correction or a total change of trend? The highly anticipated Fed decision is easily the most important event.

1. US housing data: Tuesday, 12:30. Housing starts were somewhat lower, at 1.16 million and are now projected to rise to 1.18 million.
2. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. They are expected to increase to 5.46 million now.
3. Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Fed is expected to announce the beginning of Quantitative Tightening or the beginning of reducing its 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it will be akin to “watching paint dry” and in any case, that will not be a surprise after the Fed talked about it for long months. The focus will be on the timing of the next interest rate hike. Will it happen in December, completing three hikes in 2017? Or has recently weak inflation undermined the chances? This is the big question for skeptical markets and the US dollar. The Fed will also release updated forecasts for growth, employment, and inflation. The biggest focus will be on the interest rate forecast, which will contain hints about future moves. Yellen will begin speaking at 18:30. Reporters will likely press her on the next rate hikes. The usual phrase about the Fed being “data dependent” will probably be heard more than once, but the general stance about the economy will set the tone. Other topics of interest will be comments about the stock market, the global economy, and oil prices. Markets could freeze just before the publication and go wild afterward.
4. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 22:45.
5. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, early morning, the exact time is unavailable. 
6. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. At 284K last week, it is now expected to rise to 300K.
7. Canadian inflation data: Friday, 12:30.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 17 - September 24 (based on the article)

EUR/USD suffered under pressure from the US dollar and as the German elections near. Is this just a correction after reaching new highs? Or has the rally peaked? Inflation data and PMIs stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. CPI (final): Monday, 9:00. The numbers will likely be confirmed in the final read.
2. Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00. An upbeat assessment will support Chancellor Angela Merkel.
3. Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. A slightly wider surplus of 22.3 billion is predicted.
4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A score of 22.3 billion is projected.
5. German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. A rise of 0.1% is forecast.
6. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. This monthly report by the European Central Bank provides insight on how they see the economic situation and price development. It is a more detailed report than the statement released after the rate decision.
7. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 16:00. A repeat of the same score is on the cards.
8. Flash PMIs: Friday: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the euro-zone. 
9. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. A similar score of -2 is projected now.