Forecast and levels for Dax Index - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.04 13:45

Dax Index - correction to the bearish reversal; 2.303 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition. The price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below with descending triangle pattern to be breaking to below together 12.303 support level for the primary daily bearish reversal to be started.


  • "The Thursday/Friday move put the DAX through the first zone of support in the 12537/486 vicinity, which now makes this once-viewed support an area of resistance. The early-week bounce put it to test, with yesterday’s high coming right at 12486. Stay below this zone and a push towards the French election gap starting at 12289 is viewed as the most likely scenario. It will only require a small lower-low from the Friday low to do so. A firm push into the gap will have the market on its heels as the likelihood increases significantly that we see a gap-fill down to 12048. The next level of support below the gap comes in at a swing-low just prior to the gap comes in at 19941."
  • "The technical landscape is shaping up nicely for the election-gap to finally fill. From a tactical standpoint, those looking to play for a gap-fill are offered a solid risk/reward set-up at current levels. Resistance is close by, so stops can be placed just on the other side should the market break higher, while the target lies a good distance away."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 17:11

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX (based on the article)


DAX - "Looking ahead to next week, on the data-front the calendar is lacking in ‘high’ impact events. Global markets may respond to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday should she shake things up in the U.S."


 

Market suggests to buy DAX in a mid-term.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.01 12:15

Dax Index - weekly correction; 12,088 support level is the key (based on the article)

The price on weekly chart was bounced from 12,947 resistance level for the descending trianglew pattern to be testing to below together with 12,088 support level to be broken for the secondary correction to be continuing.


  • "With the ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) top having officially triggered we should continue to see weakness develop. This type of formation, as is the case with any technical pattern, has a measured move target (MMT) which is derived by its size (height subtracted from the neckline, in this case). That points to approximately 11630. But that is a symmetry-derived target and doesn’t take into account actual price points. With that said, there is support along the way which we’ll want to keep an eye on. The first up is the gap-fill not far below at 12048, then the swing-low in April at 11941, followed by a swing-low in March at 11850. The March swing-low is fairly minor in terms of its relevance, but the fact the 200-day MA clocks in right around the same point makes ~11850 a big support level. Then comes the measured move target at approximately 11630."
  • "What will turn a bearish view around? The DAX has its work cut out for it before we begin seeing a bullish price sequence develop. For now, we’ll stick with a short bias until we see price action suggest we should do otherwise, and update as things progress."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.03 14:30

DAX Index - ranging bearish continuation; 12,082 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: price is testing descending triangle pattern to below together with 12,082 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "The trend is undeniably weak since hitting a record high in June, the weakest of major global indices at this time. The euro continuing to press on to two-and-half year highs is certainly not helping the cause for investors. The correlation between the DAX and euro is a strongly negative 87% over the past three months. For traders, the trend higher in the euro, lower in the DAX has provided opportunity in a low-volatile global market environment. It’ll be interesting to see if the strong relationship between the two will persist should we see a turn in the euro (As we discuss regularly in webinars, correlations can get turned on their heads without warning.)"
  • "The DAX volatility benchmark – VDAX – is trading up over 14, which still isn’t very high, but certainly an improvement from the string of sub-10 readings we recently saw in the VIX, the volatility benchmark for the S&P 500. So, if there is a major global index to look to for volatility it’s the DAX, along with the Nasdaq 100, which has also experienced volatility in its own right. The Nasdaq 100 volatility barometer – VXN – is trading over 14."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.19 09:47

Dax Index - daily bearish; 11,928 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition: price is testing 11,928 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish rend to be continuing.


"Looking at the German index from a pure technical standpoint, in a bubble, the trend off the June highs after breaking the neckline of the H&S topping formation continues to point towards more weakness. And, as long as it stays below the area surrounding 12300 sellers will continue to be in control. Looking lower, support arrives in the 11950/40 vicinity where the 200-day MA and 8/11 swing-low arrive. After that, 11850, then the measured move target of approximately 11600. The ‘MM’ target isn’t an actual support level but based on the size of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top (height subtracted from the neckline)."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.23 14:37

DAX Index - daily bearish ranging with ascending triangle (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ascending triangle pattern to be tested together with 12,294 resistance level to above for the secondary rally to be started, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.


  • "The area surrounding 12300 has been formidable during the course of the past few weeks, an area which we maintain as an important line-in-the-sand. As long as the DAX stays below then the sideways to downward bias remains intact. Today, we are seeing the market struggle around the trend-line off the June high. Overall, the price action for much of August is beginning to take the shape of a triangle. It won’t be long before it’ll tighten up towards completion."
  • "Given we are still operating within the context of a broken H&S formation and general downtrend it appears likely we would see an eventual break lower with just a little more time for the pattern to mature. If full maturity is to be seen and lower prices as a result then we won’t see a push beyond the low-12300s, and likely not even much of an attempt from here to trade beyond this formidable threshold. If, however, the market does push beyond resistance (especially after a developed triangle) then of course the outlook will be altered and we’ll be certain to take note."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.31 12:17

DAX Index - daily bearish ranging; 11,864 is the key (based on the article)

Price is below ichimoku cloud for the bearish ranging within 12,266 bullish reversal resistance level and 11,864 bearish continuation support level. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "Since Tuesday morning when global markets initially reacted lower on North Korea’s launching of a missile over Japan, we’ve seen the market view weakness as a buying opportunity. The DAX broke down to its worst levels since March, but has rebounded a bit. The breakdown came from a triangle pattern we were discussing as likely to lead to lower prices, but selling from the formation has proven to be a one-off event thus far."
  • "Turning to the techs-only, the DAX is nearing a trend-line running off the June record high and ‘head’ of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ formation which has acted as a technical guide for much of the past month. The trend-line is first up for the market to conquer, but even with a breach above we will need to see the area around 12300 overtaken to put wind in the sails for longs. That’s still quite a fair amount of distance away. Renewed weakness will bring back into play the weekly low at 11868 near the March low at 11850. Below there, not a move anticipated to take shape at this time, we could finally see the market trade down to the measured move target of the H&S formation near 11600 and an actual level of support around the 11480-mark."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)


Dax Index - "This coming week, the big event will be Thursday’s ECB meeting and how Mario Draghi and company plan to handle the current monetary policy and euro strength. Via Bloomberg on Friday, the ECB said it may not be ready to make a final decision until a couple of weeks before the current program expires. This put pressure on the euro after it initially rallied on weak U.S. jobs data. A euro decline could certainly help bolster European indices higher, and if general risk appetite picks up momentum there may be a double tailwind."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.09 07:34

Weekly DAX Index Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)


"The DAX broke higher during the week, after initially dipping down towards the €12,000 level. By breaking the top of the hammer from the previous week, this is a bullish sign and it looks as if were going to go looking for the €12,500 level above. That is an area that should be resistive, but in the overall look of the market, I believe we will be able to overcome that barrier. The DAX has been in an uptrend for some time, and should continue to be based upon the improving economic conditions in Europe, which of course is heavily influenced by Germany itself. I believe that buying dips continues to be the way forward, although we may get a bit of volatility in the short term, the longer-term uptrend is very much intact."

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