Press review - page 557

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - daily rally to the bullish reversal; 111.87 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is on bullish reversal by ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 111.87 resistance level for the price to be reversed to the bullish market condition.


  • "The question is, when does a lower high break higher and thus signal a changing of a trend from lower to higher? USD/JPY is at a potential breaking point such that if the downtrend remains, here is a great place for the market to turn. Highly correlated markets like the US Treasury 10Yr Yields (overlaid as a line on the chart below) are also at a seeming turning point."
  • "The key point on the chart of USD/JPY is that the price pattern is that of a wedge. Wedges tend to indicate big moves on the horizon. However, the direction of the move is less certain. A similar wedge pattern is developing in UST 10Yr Yields. The direction of the wedge is lower since the double top in yields from late 2016, early 2017 at the 2.62 level."
  • "From a fundamental perspective, the markets await FOMC, which is unlikely to surprise in a hawkish given uneven data prints in the US. A more dovish than anticipated Fed would motivate the broader USD selling trend and likely send USD/JPY lower. In Japan, the focal events are the BoJ and the Lower House election, which is not expected to directly affect the JPY due to the recent subdued JPY price volatility."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
A textbook definition of a downtrend is a series of lower lows and lower highs on the chart and time frame you’re following. The question is, when does a lower high break higher and thus signal a changing of a ? USD/JPY is at a potential breaking point such that if the downtrend remains, here is a great place for the market to turn. Highly...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging; daily bullish breakout; 58.35 is the key (monthly resistance)

2017-09-20 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 5.9M
  • forecast data is 2.8M
  • actual data is 4.6M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 56.31/55.61 support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 56.31 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 55.61 support level to below on M5 close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish breakout. Daily price is far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for  55.97 resistance level to be testing to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing with 56.62 nearest bullish target to re-enter.


==========

Chart #1.
The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

-----------

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY Intra-Day FundamentalsBank of Japan Policy Rate and range price movement 

2017-09-21 04:15 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Policy Rate]

  • past data is 0.36T
  • forecast data is 0.41T
  • actual data is 0.37T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - BOJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ. 

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "The Bank of Japan kept its monetary stimulus unchanged as widely expected on Thursday."
  • "Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board members decided by an 8-1 majority vote to hold its target of raising the amount of outstanding JGB holdings at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion."

==========

USD/JPY M5: range price movement by BOJ Policy Rate news event 

==========

Chart was made on M10 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and USD/CAD: FOMC Fed Funds Rate

2017-09-20 19:00 GMT | [USD - FED Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - FED Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events


USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events


USD/CAD M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB President Draghi Speech and range price movement 

2017-09-21 14:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

If the speech suggests the tightening of the monetary policy = positive for the euro.

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Financial and business cycles can potentially become de-synchronised, meaning that financial imbalances can grow in an environment characterised by relatively muted inflation. In such an environment, the use of monetary policy is not the right instrument to address financial imbalances, and may lead to substantial deviations of aggregate output and inflation from their desirable levels. This is particularly so in a currency union where monetary policy affects the entire region, but financial imbalances may be local in nature. Macroprudential policies, targeted at particular markets or countries, can play a key role in addressing such imbalances."
  • "But beyond increasing the resilience of the banking sector, there is also a need to address the remaining legacies of the crisis. Two important aspects are the resolution of already impaired assets, and better accounting for impaired assets for the future."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event 


==========

Chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

S&P 500  - bullish ranging to be stucked within narrow s/r levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart was stucked within narrow support resistance levels: 2,509 and 2,490. If the price breaks 2,590 resistance to below so the bullish trend will be resumed up to the new daily level to be created, if the price breaks 2,490 support to below so the correction may be started.


  • "Yesterday, the FOMC was clearly hawkish, and with that the US dollar ripped while U.S. equities tanked (at least momentarily). The dip in stocks wasn’t really much of a “tank” as the S&P 500 fell only about 10 handles, it just felt like it in this low-volatility environment (VIX closed sub-10). Weakness was short-lived and met with buying no more than about 25-30 minutes after the Fed announcement, erasing all FOMC-induced losses and closing near the highs of the session."
  • "Looking at how the market has acted in recent years after notching new record highs we might not have to wait too long for another spat of volatility. The S&P has had a propensity for punishing those who chased the market into record high territory (three occasions since May). It’s a ‘buy-the-dip’ market. Initial breakout buys may have worked, but the better entries have been when others were exiting into declines."

-----------

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
, and with that the US dollar ripped while U.S. equities tanked (at least momentarily). The dip in stocks wasn’t really much of a “tank” as the S&P 500 fell only about 10 handles, it just felt like it in this low-volatility environment (VIX closed sub-10). Weakness was short-lived and met with buying no more than about 25-30 minutes after the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD - intra-day bullish ranging within 1.3652/1.3451 (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is located far above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.3652/1.3451 support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "Though GBP/USD sliced right through 1.3450 like a hot knife cutting through butter, the bigger wave picture is still intact. Despite the Bank of England and market participants believing a rate hike is coming, the technical picture for GBP/USD is not as rosy. We believe Cable is in a terminal wave at three different degrees of trend. This suggests a reversal may be looming overhead."
  • "The Elliott Wave model we are following points our trend “GPS” to the coordinates of wave v of ((C)) of Y of 4. For those familiar with Elliott Wave, those first three coordinates are ending waves. That means once this move higher exhausts, GBP/USD may stage a top that lasts for several months. We are seeing a cluster of wave relationships appear in the 1.3775 to 1.3918 price zone so a reversal (if one happens) may take place there."

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
. Though GBP/USD sliced right through 1.3450 like a hot knife cutting through butter, the bigger wave picture is still intact. Despite the Bank of England and market participants believing a rate hike is coming, the technical picture for GBP/USD is not as rosy. We believe Cable is in a terminal wave at three different degrees of trend. This...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike over the coming months.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

The BoC may continue to implement higher borrowing-costs as ‘the level of GDP is now higher than the Bank had expected,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may prepare Canadian households and businesses for another rate-hike at the next meeting on October 25 as the central bank notes that ‘there has been a slight increase in both total CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation, consistent with the dissipating negative impact of temporary price shocks and the absorption of economic slack.’

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased for the first time since January, with the headline reading climbing to an annualized 1.2% from 1.0% the month prior. Nevertheless, the core rate of inflation held steady at 1.4% per annum during the same period, but signs of budding price pressures may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017 as the central bank warns ‘the factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary.’ The Canadian dollar rallied followed the print, with USD/CAD slipping below the 1.2600 handle to end the day at 1.2583.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Picks Up in August

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a short USD/CAD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie position, sell USD/CAD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Falls Short of Market Expectations

  • Need a green, five-minute USD/CAD candle to favor a short loonie position.
  • Implement the same setup as the bullish loonie trade, just in reverse.

USD/CAD Daily


============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

DailyFX
DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike over the coming months. and Co. may prepare Canadian households and businesses for another rate-hike at the next meeting on October 25 as the central bank notes that...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev:

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike over the coming months.

...

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 


============

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Google shares - weekly ranging bullish; 903.00 support is the key (based on the article)

Price on the weekly chart is above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 998.09 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed after ranging, and
  • 903.00 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the future possible correction, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging in the near future for example.


  • "Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) recently announced that it was acquiring part of HTC’s mobile phone business for $1.1 billion. This is the second time Google has made an acquisition in the handset space. While the first acquisition of Motorola was primarily for the patent portfolio, the HTC deal appears to be more for the hardware and design team than intellectual property. Through this acquisition, Alphabet will once again try to challenge incumbents Apple and Samsung for the premium segment of the hardware smartphone market. This time, the company could pose a credible challenge to these companies, as Google’s Pixel handsets have been positively received. Below we explore why this acquisition makes sense."

-----------

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: