Forecast and levels for EURO - page 34

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.01 19:43

EUR/USD - bearish breakdown (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "EURUSD at Multi-Year Lows: we move into a new trading week and season with critical technical levels under pressure or collapsing. The US indices are on the cusp of volatile but rigid ranges while the Dollar has extended its charge to a fresh multi-year high. Breakouts are likely, but follow through can remain a tripping point if not properly appointed with speculative momentum. Be ready for transition in market conditions."
  • "The US Dollar surged to multi-year highs last week as the greenback continues to show its strength, but does USD have room to run or will technical resistance keep upward momentum at bay?"

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.12 15:24

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates, Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2019-09-12 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Main Refinancing Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Main Refinancing Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

  • "The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.50%. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at their current levels of 0.00% and 0.25% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB  Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.13 10:11

EUR/USD - bearish breakdown to oversold levels; 1.0925 is the key (based on  the article)

EUR/USD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro seesawed but ultimately found its way higher even as the ECB reintroduced quantitative easing alongside an interest rate cut that brought its target lending rate deeper into negative territory. Imperviousness to typically negative news flow often speaks to potent underlying strength, but the single currency’s advance also stopped conspicuously short of breaking its near-term downtrend."
  • "Prices now stand squarely at resistance guiding them lower since late June. That barrier is reinforced by former support in the 1.1069-1.1116 area, now acting as an upside hurdle. Breaking above that on a daily closing basis would neutralize near-term selling pressure and set the stage for a move higher to challenge the 1.12 figure. On the downside, the September 3 low at 1.0926 marks the lower bound of a choppy range."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator from CodeBase: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.27 16:21

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation

2019-09-27 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

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From official report :

  • "New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $250.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 2.0 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Fabricated metal products, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 1.3 percent to $34.4 billion."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.02 15:41

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-10-02 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 157K
  • forecast data is 140K
  • actual data is 135K according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report :

  • "Private-sector employment increased by 135,000 from August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Identified Trend Channels

 

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

 

EUR/USD - short, medium and  a log-term review

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

Daily: correction to the possible bearish ranging reversal.
The price broke upper Ichimoku cloud line (Sinkou Span B in our case) from above to below for the ranging market condition to be started. Price is located inside Ichimoku cloud by close daily bar with Chinkou Span line to be very close to the historical price for the possible bearish breakdown. The nearest bearish reversal target is 1.099 with the primary bearish target of 1.088.

EUR/USD weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

Weekly: ranging bearish.
The price is on primary bearish market condition on the secondary ranging within 1.117 resistance and 1.008 support levels. If the price breaks 1.117 level to above so the secondary bear market rally will be started with 1.141 as the next target for the possible bullish reversal. if the price breaks 1.088 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.

EUR/USD monthly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

Monthly: bearish breakdown to be continuing.
Price is on the slowly bearish breakdown which was started in the February last year: the price was already broke Ichimoku cloud to below on the close monthly bars with 1.088 support levels. if the price breaks 1.088 support to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing, if not so the price will be ranging within Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started,

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

 

EURUSD is consolidating around %50 of the 3 months of fibonacci levels, however price is still under 200 SMA and consalidation levels are at the resistance of 6 months of linear regression.

A strong bearish trend might be following at this month.



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