Eur/usd - page 236
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EURUSD plunged fast and hard on Friday’s session with a wide range day of 195 pips and closed near the low of the day. The pair is still in a bearish phase and trading well below the 10-day moving average. The stochastic in showing an oversold market but even with the pair well into oversold territory, we should not fight the strong downward trend.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Strongest Since 2007
Eurozone investor confidence reached its highest level since August 2007, survey data from the think tank Sentix showed Monday.
The investor confidence index for March rose to 18.6 from 12.4 in February. This was the highest score since August 2007.
Both current assessment and expectations strengthened strongly in March. The current situation index came in at 6.5, the highest since May 2014.
The expectations sub-index improved to 31.5 in March, the highest since February 2006, from 27.5 in the prior month.
The readings give hopes that the recovery is more sustainable in the euro area leaving its recessionary tendencies behind, Sentix said.
In Germany, overall investor confidence rose to an all-time high in March. The indicator showed a reading of 39.5 compared to 35 in February. The current situation hit the highest since July 2011 and expectations reached an all-time high.
source
EURUSD has a Monday hangover
The EURUSD fell sharply after the US jobs report on Friday showed nearly a 300K gain and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%. Today it has a bit of a Monday hangover, as we have seen a corrective move higher and are now seeing a move back toward the closing levels from Friday. The pair is moving gingerly around - with little accomplished so far (you know that hangover feeling ; ) ).
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the downside momentum continued in the 1st hours of trading today with the price moving to new 11+ year lows at 108.223. The next target. I had came in at the 108.04/09 area (see post outlining that level HERE), but that level was not seriously tested.
The subsequent rally today took the price back about 38.2% of the move from the Friday high to the low reached today (see chart above at 1.09023). That has stalled the corrective move, and we are now seeing a rotation back down toward the closing level from Friday (at 1.0843). The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0852 level (that is the low) is being tests. That seems to be stalling the decline for the time being.
The sellers are still in control. It is hard to pick a bottom in the pair just yet. The ECB started the QE process today and that should keep the EURUSD under wraps. The US employment continues to be the envy of the world as well. However, there will come a time when the EURUSD move runs out of steam as a result of:
The targets on the downside include 1.0804-09. This was a collection of lows from 2003 (see chart below. Below that will be the 1.0759 level which is the low from that period as well (see the chart below from that time period).
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price fail to correct and consolidate under 1.1000. the bearish trend is still Valid
Forex - EUR/USD: Fresh Target $1.05 as Rate Hike Looms
The US dollar is seen supported strongly with market participants increasingly anticipating the Federal Reserve (Fed) may drop its "patient" language at next week’s FOMC meeting on March 18, setting the stage for a hike in June or September this year.
The US dollar has no rivals as it is extending gains across the board in a range near 0.60%.
With the economic calendar quiet in the US ahead of Thursday’s February retail sales report, the major market moving event is likely to be the March FOMC meeting. Tuesday’s releases are limited to the JOLTs job survey, wholesale inventories, and NFIB optimism, all seen having little FX market impact.
"The USD has typically followed US front-end rates higher in the months heading into the start of a Fed rate hike cycle and we continue to recommend longs vs. funding currencies. We remain long USDJPY from 117.75 and short EURUSD from 1.1450, with the target on the latter trade now extended to 1.05 from 1.08 and the stop trailed to 1.10 to lock in roughly 4% gains," BNP Paribas wrote in a note on Tuesday.
Fed members Loretta Mester and Richard Fisher reiterated on Monday that they are comfortable with a June hike and this seems to be putting further upside on the greenback.
The euro continues it's sharp decline, which is now in its ninth straight month, with the currency falling below $1.08 earlier on Tuesday from nearly $1.40 seen in July 2014. EUR/USD approached its 2003 low of $1.076 then fell to $1.0783 during the Asian session, while in late Asian trade the euro was down 0.47% to $1.0797.
"In addition, we are now of the view that the market is increasingly willing to hold short EUR positions on crosses in G10 space as well. If EUR really does replace JPY as the funding currency of choice due to negative rates, this trend can have a lot further to run, to EUR’s overall detriment," Credit Suisse wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
source
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure at 1.0906 to turn around and close near the open of the day. If we were at a bottom this could be a signal that the price was ready to reverse by the inverted hammer pattern but this is not the case and a break below Monday’s low would signal a continuation of the bearish trend.
Real money buyers seen on EURUSD ahead of large expiry tomorrow
Chatter on the street that real money (non-leveraged) buyers have been noted in the dip to 1.0735 this morning
There's a big (EUR 3.2bln) expiry at 1.0725 tomorrow and appears to be providing some sort of defence demand at the moment along with some cited profit-taking
Expect rallies to be sold into still though
Currently 1.0752
Chatter on the street that real money (non-leveraged) buyers have been noted in the dip to 1.0735 this morning
There's a big (EUR 3.2bln) expiry at 1.0725 tomorrow and appears to be providing some sort of defence demand at the moment along with some cited profit-taking
Expect rallies to be sold into still though
Currently 1.0752Oh yeah. I also think so.
Oh yeah. I also think so.
So far it looks like it is true
EUR/USD: How Low Can You Go?
The North American trading session is kicking off with some excitement this morning as renewed fears of a Greek exit of the Eurozone have been stirred up for the 1,487th time in the last few years. The euro is taking it on the chin as the EUR/USD fell all the way to a 12 year low at 1.0720 before bouncing back up in a way that some would categorize as posthumously feline toward 1.08. Equity markets are also taking a hit with both Dow and S&P 500 reversing all the gains they earned yesterday while gold has earned a little safe haven seeking boost.
The Grexit fear this time around is that the Greek government is dragging their feet in implementing the agreement they made with the Eurogroup a couple of weeks back. This new drama began to unfold yesterday almost at the same time Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was unveiling their new watch, a point which I referenced in jest on Twitter.