Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GBP/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.18 15:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and CAC 40: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2017-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


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CAC 40 Index, M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.21 16:58

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "Looking at the economic docket for the week ahead, the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports coming out of the U.K. & U.S. may generate a buzz as both regions are projected to grow at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter, but the backward-looking data prints may do little to alter the range-bound conditions in the pound-dollar exchange rate amid the diverging paths for monetary policy. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a greater than 70% probability for a June rate-hike as Chair Janet Yellen argues the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is ‘closing in’ on its dual mandate, and the pickup in interest-rate expectations continues to foster a long-term bearish forecast for GBP/USD as the central bank remains on course for further normalize monetary policy in 2017."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.26 11:20

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. GDP First Estimate and 40 pips range price movement

2017-01-26 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "UK gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 0.6% during Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, the same rate of growth as in the previous 2 quarters."

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GBP/USD M5: 40 pips range price movement by U.K. GDP First Estimate news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.28 11:57

Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05 (based on the article)


The US dollar was mixed in Trump’s first week in office. Rate decisions in Japan, the US and the UK, GDP data in Canada and the buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday promise a busy week. These are the main events on forex calendar.

  1. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in its December meeting amid modest pace of growth. The decision was in line with market forecast.
  2. Canadian GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in November.
  3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. A score of 112.6 is on the cards now.
  4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. A gain of 165K private sector jobs is expected for January.
  5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. A score of 55 points is likely for January.
  6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. 
  7. US FOMC Rate Statement: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate in December as widely anticipated. Federal funds rate was increased by 25 basis points, to a range of 0.50 to 0.75%. This was the second rate hike in a decade. Economists expect these steps will spur economic growth and inflation while supporting company earnings.
  8. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% but warned that higher inflation and slower wage growth will weigh in household budgets in 2017. In addition to the rate statement and the accompanying meeting minutes, the BOE also publishes its quarterly inflation report.
  9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expected claims to reach 247,000. A level of 251K is predicted now.
  10. US Non-Farm Payrolls report: Friday, 13:30. In January, 170K are estimated. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.7%.
  11. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. A score of 57 points is on the cards.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.28 14:56

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "In the U.K., Parliament begins its two-day debate on the ‘Brexit’ process just ahead of the BoE interest rate decision on February 2, with the British Pound at risk of facing near-term headwinds as the region’s departure from the European Union (EU) clouds the outlook for growth and inflation. However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to drop its dovish tone and reiterate price growth will ‘overshoot the target later in 2017 and through 2018’ as U.K. consumer prices expand at the fastest pace since 2014. As a result, the fresh updates to the quarterly inflation report (QIR) may sap the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound and fuel the near-term advance in GBP/USD should central bank officials further stress ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated.’"


 

the demand for high

 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.02 10:16

GBP/USD ahead of Bank of England Interest Rates (based on the article)

M5 price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:
  • 1.2701 resistance level located far above 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.2659 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.
If the price breaks 1.2701 resistance to above on close M5 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.2659 support level on close M5 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "Fresh forecasts from BoE officials may highlight 'a slightly lower path for inflation than envisaged in the November Inflation Report’ as the central bank continues to assess sterling’s effect on U.K. price growth, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may stick to the highly accommodative policy stance throughout 2017 especially as the U.K. prepares to depart from the European Union (EU). Nevertheless, Governor Carney may stress ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated’ as the central bank anticipates a notable increase in price growth, and an unexpected upward revision in the quarterly inflation report (QIR) may fuel a larger recovery in GBP/USD as it boosts interest rate expectations."

  • "However, signs of stronger-than-expected growth paired with the pickup in U.K. wage growth may encourage the MPC to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy, and an unexpected upward revision to the quarterly inflation report may heighten the appeal of sterling as market participants scale back bets for additional monetary support."


 
GBP/USD M5: 137 pips range price movement by U.K. Official Bank Rate news event


If the price breaks 1.2701 resistance to above on close M5 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.2659 support level on close M5 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

M5 price broke 1.2659 support level to below for the bearish breakdown: the price is testing support level at 1.2535 for the bearish trend to be continuing on M5 chart.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.10 11:41

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and 30 pips range price movement

2017-02-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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From official report:

  • "The monthly estimate of total production increased by 1.1%. There were mixed performances across the 4 production sectors; manufacturing provided all the growth, increasing by 2.1%."
  • "The 3 months-on-previous 3 months estimate of total production increased by 0.3% in December 2016, with increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors. The largest contribution came from manufacturing, with growth of 1.2%."

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GBP/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory production news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.14 12:11

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 73 pips range price movement

2017-02-14 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.8% in the year to January 2017, compared with a 1.6% rise in the year to December 2016."
  • "CPIH (not a National Statistic) rose by 2.0% in the year to January 2017, compared with a 1.7% rise in the year to December 2016."

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GBP/USD M5: 73 pips range price movement by .K. Consumer Price Index news event


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