Press review - page 624

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) -  daily bullish reeversal; 1233 is the key (based on the article)

• "The breakout above yearly down-trend resistance in Gold has fueled a rally of nearly 4% off the monthly lows with the advance failing just ahead of a key resistance range in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-10-19 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 2.8% increase in August. Month over month, the CPI decreased 0.4% as transitory pressures from the gasoline, air transportation and travel tours indexes, which boosted the all-items CPI in July and August, eased."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold (XAU/USD) - daily bullish breakout; long-term possible bullish reversal (based on the article)

• "Gold has been on the offensive with the price breakout now testing BIG technical resistance after rallying more than 6.5% off the yearly lows. While the broader focus remains higher, the immediate advance looks vulnerable as price approaches this critical barrier."
• "A closer look at price action shows gold continuing to trade within the confines of the ascending pitchfork formation. A multi-day consolidation structure looks to have broken today- but the advance is running into some key technical targets on the topside. The immediate focus is on a reaction at this key resistance barrier."
• "Long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 4.7% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-10-24 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -1470M
• forecast data is -1365M
• actual data is -1560M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

• "New Zealand had a merchandize trade deficit of NZ$1.560 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday."
• "Exports climbed an annual 14.0 percent to NZ$4.33 billion, beating forecasts for NZ$4.20 billion and up from NZ$4.05 billion in the previous month. Imports jumped 19.0 percent on year to NZ$5.89 billion versus forecasts for NZ$5.60 billion and up from NZ$5.54 billion a month earlier."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily bearish reversal; long-term bullish continuation (based on the article)

• "Another week of heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets proved to be fertile ground for another round of gains by the Japanese Yen. Spurred on by fresh concerns over the Brexit process and the Italian budget saga, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY were two of the three worst performers, losing -2.45% and -1.53% respectively. More pressure on emerging markets amid trade war concerns weighed on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, which sank by -0.97% and -1.96% each. "
• "While price action on Friday produced a sharp reversal in higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets, thus yielding a selloff in the Yen, the facts on the ground dictating the current risk environment haven't changed: the aggregate impact of tightening monetary policy, mismanaged fiscal policy (rising deficits), trade wars, high oil costs, and high inflation are too much for market participants at present time. Weekly and monthly charts still point to further gains for the Japanese Yen, even if a round of short-term position squaring (profit taking at the end of the month) transpires."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen (based on the article)

Japanese Yen - "In a week filled with prolonged adverse stock market volatility, the anti-risk Japanese Yenappreciated against most of its major counterparts. The funding currency often benefits when sentiment turns sour and the importance of preserving capital leads to an unwinding of carry trade exposure. This results traders buying back funding currencies, of which the Yen is a prominent one and it appreciates. With that in mind, we turn our attention to the week ahead. The previous one was notably lacking in prominent economic data, allowing for markets to focus on the bigger fundamental picture which looks shaky for risk trends. Those are still vulnerable to tightening global credit conditions, trade wars, emerging markets and political uncertainty."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The Australian Dollar continues to languish close to this year’s lows against its US cousin, but, while there’s little scope to expect a turnaround, matters may not get much worse for its bulls this week. he currency remains primarily beset by the yawning gap in monetary policy approaches between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve. While the Fed seems resolved to go on raising interest rates whatever President Donald Trump’s reservations , the RBA seems set to keep its own key Official Cash Rate at its 1.50% record low for many months yet. Indeed futures markets still don not predict a move for all of next year."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "Last week, we mentioned that for the first time in a while, spread between crude futures in the first two months (November 18 –December 18) is now showing a discount developing in the front-month contract compared to the second-month contract whereas, in early July, the premium for the front-month contract was as high as $2.57/bbl. Once again, we’ve seen a discount increase on the back of massive builds in US Crude Oil inventory to the tune of 635mln barrels. The most popular calendar spread is the December 2018-December 2019 is trading at the narrowest levels in a year when it moved from a high of a $6.85/bbl premium on the front-month contract to a premium this week as low as $0.22/bbl. The falling premium tends to indicate concerns of oversupply, or in the narrative of this month, lower demand."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "It seems as though the BoC will pick up the pace to normalize monetary policy as the ‘Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target,’ and Governor Stephen Poloz & Co. may continue to prepare Canadian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘the Canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced.’ However, the BoC may endorse a wait-and-see approach going into 2019 as officials pledge to ‘pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook,’ and little evidence for an imminent rate-hike may continue to prop up USD/CAD especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to deliver another 25bp in December."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) - "The week ahead brings heavy-duty scheduled event risk back into the picture. October’s labor market data takes top billing, with expectations pointing to a pickup in payrolls growth. Wage inflation might prove to dominate the spotlight however. Average hourly earnings are expected to have grown at a blistering pace of 3.2 percent on-year, the fastest in almost a decade. hat may well amplify worries about an accelerated pace of Fed tightening even as a raft of destabilizing influences continues to encourage de-risking across financial markets. Italy’s populists have locked horns with the EU, a Brexit deal remains elusive and the trade war between the US and China shows no signs of abating. Meanwhile, rising borrowing costs are already threatening fiscal stability in key emerging markets."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.