Central Bank of Brazil Focus Market Report

BRL, Brazilian real
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The Focus Market Bulletin seeks to guide the Brazilian market with the most crucial information of the economy, seeking to visualize the economic future of Brazil. It is a document published weekly by the Central Bank of Brazil.

The Focus Report aims to guide the Brazilian economy with market expectations for the following week, month, 12 months and for the following year. The indicators analyzed in the Focus Bulletin are as follows: Broad Consumer Price Index — IPCA, IGP-DI (General Price Index — Internal Availability), IGP-M (General Market Price Index), IPC-Fipe (The Consumer Price Index of the Municipality of Sao Paulo), expectations for Selic Rate, Exchange Rate, projections on the growth of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), net public sector debt/GDP, industrial production growth, current account and trade balance (collected from more than 130 banks, brokers and fund managers), as well as other indicators.

From the data collected by the Market Expectations System, three reports are generated:

  • Focus — Market Report: released every Monday. It is the summary of the calculation of all statistics, considering the market expectations that are collected in 30 consecutive days prior to the reference date of the report.
  • Focus — Frequency Distributions: released the first Monday of each month, it shows the evolution of the frequency distributions of the market expectations for the last three months, the current year and the three subsequent years in relation to IPCA, Selic rate, GDP and exchange rate.
  • Focus — Top 5: The Central Bank of Brazil selects five financial institutions that are recognized as the "Top 5". It classifies these institutions according to the index of the accuracy of the main macroeconomic variables in their short, medium and long term projections. The ranking of these institutions is disclosed every month. In January, an annual forecast is carried out.

The Focus report is the best visualization of the Brazilian economic scenario. Another more technical function is the orientation of the Central Bank of Brazil regarding the decision making regarding the monetary policy (interest rate).

Large companies, investors and the Brazilian government itself, often use the Focus Report as a reference for their decisions. The Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), for example, uses the information from the Focus report to decide the Selic rate at meetings of the committee.

The Focus Report can be beneficial in relation to analysts' expectations for the economy in the coming weeks, months and also next year, as well as in investor decision-making, since the variables presented in the Bulletin directly affect the Brazilian economy and investments.