Week Ahead – Global Macro Events (Oct 13–18, 2025)
A dense calendar spans China inflation, US CPI/PPI-Retail Sales, UK labor/GDP, and multiple central-bank speakers. Expect policy expectations and growth signals to drive FX, rates, and commodities.
📌 Monday, Oct 13
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🇨🇳 New Loans (Sep) — Credit impulse snapshot for China’s growth pulse and commodities demand.
📌 Tuesday, Oct 14
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🇦🇺 RBA Minutes (Sep) — Tone watch: balance between easing inflation and softer labor.
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🇬🇧 Avg Earnings 3m/y 4.7%, Claimant Count +17.4K — Wage momentum vs labor slack.
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🇪🇺 Germany ZEW Expectations 37.3 — Early read on Eurozone growth sentiment.
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🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell speaks (15:30) · FOMC Gov Waller (19:25)
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🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey speaks (17:00)
📌 Wednesday, Oct 15
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🇨🇳 CPI y/y −0.4%, PPI y/y −2.9% — Disinflation/deflation risks and global goods prices.
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🇺🇸 CPI: Core m/m 0.3%, Headline m/m 0.4%, y/y 2.9% — Key for “real” rates and USD.
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🇺🇸 Empire State Mfg −8.7 — Activity pulse for manufacturing.
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🇺🇸 Waller speaks (17:00)
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🇦🇺 RBA Gov Bullock speaks (19:45)
📌 Thursday, Oct 16
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🇦🇺 Employment −5.4K, Unemployment 4.2% — Labor cooling confirmation.
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🇬🇧 GDP m/m 0.0% — Stagnation watch.
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🇺🇸 PPI −0.1%, Core PPI −0.1%, Retail Sales +0.6%, Core Retail +0.7%, Jobless Claims — Growth vs price pipeline; real-time labor.
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🇺🇸 Philly Fed 23.2 — Regional momentum.
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🇺🇸 Waller speaks (13:00)
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🇪🇺 ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks (16:00)
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🇨🇦 BoC Gov Macklem speaks (17:30)
📌 Friday, Oct 17 (tentative windows)
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🇺🇸 NFP +52K, Unemployment 4.3%, AHE +0.3% m/m — Directional cue for the Fed path.
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🇺🇸 Jobless Claims (weekly) — Follow-through on labor tightness/softness.
📌 Saturday, Oct 18
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🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey speaks (13:00)
📌 Trader’s Note
Three pivots shape the tape:
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US inflation & spending (CPI/PPI, Retail Sales) — a hotter CPI or firm retail could revive “higher-for-longer” bets and lift USD/yields; softer prints favor duration, gold, and high-beta FX.
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China prices & credit (CPI/PPI, New Loans) — weak inflation and tepid credit bode for commodities demand; any upside surprise supports metals/energy sentiment.
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UK/AU labor & BoE/RBA tone — cooler wages/jobs argue for patience; hawkish surprises would bite GBP/AUD shorts.
Speeches (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey, Waller, Macklem) can deliver left-field volatility; keep risk tight into headlines.
Developed via Global Markets Pulse – structured macro insights for traders.
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